The Lass Word: True North
Division games will decide.
By KenLass
Comparing scores against common opponents is not a perfect way to predict the outcome of future games, or to calculate chances to make the playoffs. The circumstances of every match-up are different. Was the other team playing at home? Were there critical players missing because of injury? Was weather a factor?
It’s good to keep those qualifications in mind, because when you examine a few of the common opponents the Green Bay Packers and their fellow NFC North opponents have played, the results are disturbing. For example, the Packers lost to the Cleveland Browns. The Lions beat that same Browns team 34-10. The Vikings beat them in Cleveland 21-17. The Packers tied the Dallas Cowboys. The Bears, by comparison, beat those same Cowboys 31-14. There are other concerning scores involving teams outside the division. Green Bay dropped a game at home to the Carolina Panthers. Those Panthers just got beat, at home, by the 2-7 Saints. Oh, and getting back to the Browns? They just lost to the 2-7 New York Jets, even after the Jets had just traded away their two best defensive players.
Doesn’t mean a thing you say? Maybe. But I find it unsettling at best. I bring this up because the Packers are about to play the New York Giants on Sunday. The Giants are 2-8, so once again, Green Bay figures to be a heavy favorite. Don’t bet on it. The Packers just lost to the Philadelphia Eagles 10-7. That same Eagles team was throttled by the Giants in Week 6 by a score of 34-17. Since then, the Giants have lost their star receiver Malik Nabors, and their budding star running back, Cam Skattebo, for the season. Emerging quarterback Jaxon Dart is out for this game after suffering a concussion last Sunday. New York fired head coach Brian Daboll after Sunday’s loss to the Bears, so this will be interim head coach Mike Kafka’s first game at the helm. He was the offensive coordinator. Back-up quarterback Russell Wilson has been such a bust, Kafka announced that third stringer Jameis Winston will start against the Pack.
In other words, the Giants are a mess. The Packers should be able to march into Metlife stadium, dominate, and fly home with a convincing win. Just like they were supposed to do against the Browns, Cowboys and Panthers. Oddsmakers have installed Green Bay as a seven point favorite. Yet I would venture to say there are few Packer fans who feel secure about this game. Justifiably so.
Two straight losses have dropped the Packers into the middle of the NFC standings. With so many improved teams in the conference, the wild card race is going to be a free-for-all. It is looking more and more as though the more likely path to the playoffs is to win the division. That also secures a first round home game. Considering Green Bay has just lost back-to-back games at home, maybe that’s not a big deal, but it should count for something.
The NFL, in an effort to create more drama in the latter half of the season, has scheduled the majority of division games in the final seven weeks. Five of the Packers final seven games will be against NFC North foes. It is those five games that will determine Green Bay’s fate. Fortunately, or maybe unfortunately, depending on how you look at it, the division seems wide open. The top three teams, Lions, Bears and Packers, are separated by just half a game. The Vikings are two games back, but few would doubt they have the talent to beat anyone. If they get any kind of consistency from young quarterback JJ McCarthy, they will be right in the thick of it.
Getting back to comparing games, it will get you nowhere in figuring out who is going to win the division. The Vikings have beaten the Lions, the Lions have beaten the Bears, the Packers have beaten the Lions. Good luck figuring out who has the upper hand in this frenetic upcoming round robin.
One thing for sure, the Packers will struggle to beat anybody if they don’t get their offensive problems solved. Perhaps that will begin to happen against a beat-up Giants team this weekend. After that, buckle your seat belt for a challenging ride through the division. The North is winnable. But it’s certainly not predictable.
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
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Comments (31)
Savage57
November 14, 2025 at 06:14 am
The Packers chance for salvation starts Sunday. Get right against the Giants, then take out the frustrations of the second quarter of the season on division foes.
Conditioned upon the offense realizing their biggest challenge is not beating themselves.
Add in a reversal of the dearth of game-impacting turnovers, and they got this.
I'm not even gonna bring up special teams because expecting anything different there is a fool's errand.
TKWorldWide
November 14, 2025 at 06:52 am
I read a lot of player assessments, but it seems to me they never mention a player being prone to blown assignments and or penalties, even though those things are devastating. Weird.
Vachio
November 14, 2025 at 08:49 am
Spot on. Simply running the play as designed and not drawing flags is a lot more valuable than most people understand. Of course, you have to wonder if maybe the coaches are making things more complicated than they need to be. This is so widespread across every group on the offensive side that it almost has to be. Unless we just have a lot of really low IQ players.
TKWorldWide
November 14, 2025 at 09:26 am
And as I understand it, the current CBA only allows for 13 padded practices during the season, and I can’t see how the players union will ever agree to more.
LambeauPlain
November 14, 2025 at 11:52 am
Reduced padded practices has to reduce effectiveness, cohesiveness (OL especially!) and being in "play shape".
To compound this, LaFleur rarely has all his starters even practicing in sweats. They usually have one of the longest injury lists every week. Up to 30% of the active roster watch practices with DNP or Limited designations.
I don't believe the Packers practices are physically difficult or challenging...when every game day is. Does this also encourage the flags to fly? Because they find ways to commit self inflicted penalties to wreck drives way too often.
dobber
November 15, 2025 at 09:26 am
We tend to agree on a lot of things, but here are the injury reports for most of this week's games (www. truncated to allow for posting):
packers.com/team/injury-report/
vikings.com/team/injury-report/
chargers.com/team/injury-report/
detroitlions.com/team/injury-report/
tennesseetitans.com/team/injury-report/
buffalobills.com/team/injury-report/
chiefs.com/team/injury-report/
panthers.com/team/injury-report/
bengals.com/team/injury-report/
Managed reps are a thing. The Packers aren't really much different from other teams.
porupack
November 14, 2025 at 07:46 am
Always like your work, Ken. Its an elusive thing as you say, to compare scores/wins, and yet...it does offer data points. Just can't over read, I suppose.
ricky
November 14, 2025 at 08:38 am
This game makes me extremely nervous. If we're going to look at history, how about losing to Tommy DeVito? How about that loss in London a few years ago to these same Giants? Or the playoff loss to Eli at home? For some reason.
Add in that teams have a habit of doing well the first game or two after a mid-season coaching change, and the heat increases. And calling the Giants a mess? Are they less consistent than the Packers in losing games? The Giants this year lost late in games with big leads, while the Packers can't seem to get their offense on track, and the coach's seat is getting warmer with each unimaginative and predictable play.
If the Giants can get a consistent pass rush with four players, and Winston has a good game this could become another nail biter.
If there are more running plays that passes at the end of the first quarter or half for the Packers, expect there to be an explosion of anger from fans who are catching on that the coach has simply gotten stuck in a rut, and refuses to change. But change will come, one way or another.
Cheezehead72
November 14, 2025 at 09:50 am
Not sure what you mean by nervous. I learned a long time ago just to enjoy the games and the season. I have no control over what happens so I just watch and comment.
Plus this team is so unpredictable and inconsistent that we do not know what will happen. They are not a SB team so what difference does it make.
Coldworld
November 14, 2025 at 09:50 am
If ever there was a team to run on, the current Giants are it. They are really poor. This game is actually set up for the offense we’ve seen to succeed despite itself. I don’t see another team in the league that would offer so great an opportunity for our recently offense to flatter to deceive. The pitfall should not be losing—that would be a new low by some way, but winning doing what we have been and expecting that to carry over into future opponents.
HawkPacker
November 14, 2025 at 10:01 am
I am not nervous at all. I don't expect the Pack to change much and there is a good chance that they lose. I believe their mindset now is to try not to lose rather than let's win!
After the disappointments from them this year, I am just not all that excited about them. I hope this changes and realize that they could be close to playing well.
The defense appears to play good team ball but the offense has a lot of good/great players but do they play as a team or as a group of individuals. No comment on the special teams.
Packerpasty
November 14, 2025 at 06:58 pm
the loss to Eli at home was a terrible experience to watch live in the stands at Lambeau ill tell ya that...sucked..
Starrbrite
November 14, 2025 at 10:28 pm
ARod’s worst game that season.
LeotisHarris
November 14, 2025 at 08:41 am
After we do whatever we are going to do to the Giants, my personal GI comfort comes into play with the remaining regular season schedule. The Packers have a team that should beat Minnesota and Chicago. A win in Detroit on Thanksgiving will take a special effort by a team that cannot get out of its own way on offense. Denver can be had. Damn, I loathe Sean Payton and the Broncos.
I'd be grateful if these knuckleheads could somehow run the table. GPG
Cheezehead72
November 14, 2025 at 09:51 am
They also have a team that should have beat Cleveland, Dallas, and Carolina so anything is possible.
Leatherhead
November 14, 2025 at 11:38 am
That's some impressive optimism. We're 5-3-1. I agree with you that we could beat the Giants, go 6-3-1, and then we have two winnable games against division foes at home. We could be 8-3-1 when we play Detroit at Thanksgiving.
I think we have a real good defense this year that is going to keep us in the games. Other than the anomalous game at Dallas, nobody got more than 25 (Steelers) and most of them couldn't get past 18. That's good defense. Very good.
But running the table? That offense is going to have to fix itself, and pronto. I'd be happy if we could win 3 of the next 4 and look like we found a way to score points. We'd be 8-4-1 going into the last 4 games of the season. That's not a bad spot.
Starrbrite
November 14, 2025 at 10:30 pm
Thanks Leotis—I hate, despise, and loathe the Broncos. That game is my SB, but we’ve only once won there.
TarynsEyes
November 14, 2025 at 09:08 am
Let's add a win this week to the record, 6-3-1 with 7 games to go. Two vs Min, 2 vs Chi, Det, Den, and Balt, who won't be sitting any starters as their situation doesn't allow it. GB will need to go 4-3 to get 10 wins, and with the play they're showing, I don't see it happening, as it looks like 3-4. If a loss happens in NY, fold the playoff picture up and put it away until next year when fantasy springs a new.
FumundaStank
November 14, 2025 at 12:51 pm
I don't see this team going 4 - 0 against Chi and Min. They are not going to win the division and it's going to be tough to get a wild card.
Packerpasty
November 14, 2025 at 07:00 pm
and it will all be blamed on injuries and the O line until it all happens again next season if nothing is changed at the play calling position...
Ferrari-Driver
November 14, 2025 at 09:11 am
We can thank an NFL Commissioner from decades ago named Bert Bell who in 1936 implemented the NFL draft for you, Ken Lass, to write this article about the balance in the league. The draft enable small market teams like our Packers who lack the deep pockets of wealthy billionaires from being able to acquire and maintain super talents and dominate. Just imagine that the smallest city in the NFL with population of less than 150,000 people has won more championships than cities like New York, Cleveland, and Chicago with populations in the millions and very wealthy owners at the helm. No one team dominates forever in the NFL...THANKS to Bert Bell and the draft. Of course later after free agency was awarded to players, the salary cap is a life saver in much the same way as the draft.
TarynsEyes
November 14, 2025 at 09:38 am
"The draft enable small market teams like our Packers who lack the deep pockets of wealthy billionaires from being able to acquire and maintain super talents and dominate".
Your half right. The draft helps teams, but you still need to know who to draft. The salary cap in the NFL is what prevents Owners with deep pockets from buying domination. They cannot simply reach into their bank accounts and spend money, like the MLB. The salary cap makes every team as equal as possible from the spending point, but the inequality of teams is still due to their inability to get the right players and caches aligned for whatever schemes they plan to utilize, along with financial smarts in spending it intelligently.
The Packers made a mistake with Parsons, and the price has yet to be felt to its max. This team needed Offensive help, not Defense. He has changed nothing. A salary cap blunder, and the loss of two 1st Rd picks. That's FO stupidity, and not the result of another Owner's deep pockets that isn't allowed to put his hands into.
Coldworld
November 14, 2025 at 10:18 am
Yes, the genius was a hard cap that was brought in to save smaller market teams. It was the urgency of doing that to ensure survival of the league that got the rich teams to swallow it like no other sport. In the end there made far more than they probably dreamed possible. With it though came both expansion and the survival of teams like the Packers and Bills as well as parity and the chance that almost any team can compete in any given year.
To your point on Parsons: I differ. The team was right if LaFleur was as they saw him. Unfortunately he’s been proved not to be. One could argue that the proof was out there a couple of seasons ago, but it’s only grown more starkly defined, that’s the error.
I doubt Policy will be so forgiving as Murphy was of his protege. One hopes so, because if it’s not fixed ASAP we will waste a window, not just this year. Parsons did indeed start a very loud clock ticking.
PackerBackerAZ
November 14, 2025 at 03:04 pm
Parsons has made an underperforming defensive line into a really good one. He makes the defense championship caliber even with the cornerback room.
The offensive skill players on the Packers should be championship caliber when healthy. The line, while not great, shouldn't be an impediment to the Super Bowl.
Unfortunately, I can't say the offensive coaching is Super Bowl caliber. Heck, it might not even be playoff worthy.
Starrbrite
November 14, 2025 at 10:52 pm
Strongly disagree re Parsons. I believe when we obtain a decent lead, we will see his true value; as a game closer.
LeotisHarris
November 14, 2025 at 10:24 am
Let's remember and acknowledge Pete Rozelle for the equal sharing of broadcast revenue. Without that cash cow for all teams, the NFL would not be the entity it is today.
Starrbrite
November 14, 2025 at 10:54 pm
10-4 Leotis—exactly!
jannesbjornson
November 15, 2025 at 11:11 am
That's Socialism for you.
Starrbrite
November 14, 2025 at 10:48 pm
A salient point Ferrari—good reminder.
As for the salary cap, I’m very skeptical of its merit. I’ve in the past called the cap a myth. It seems teams manage, manipulate, and overcome it. Teams spending like the Dodgers and Yankees seem like they dance beyond it.
LambeauPlain
November 14, 2025 at 01:00 pm
It is so very difficult to build a championship team in the NFL.
Every season, schedules eased for losing teams. The worst pick first draft. Hard salary cap. Trading deadline at mid season.
The great equalizer is coaching. Must very good in all 3 phases. This is THE primary job of the HC. LaFleur has yet to field a team that is because he does not focus on this primary job.
7th straight year of problems on STs. But finally, a 2nd straight year of complementary Defense. So wouldn't you know it, the Offense struggles as the OL breaks down.
LaFleur needs to enjoy the best coaching of his career over the next 8 games. But maybe Ed Policy is as patient as Murphy.
Starrbrite
November 14, 2025 at 10:57 pm
Yep…and I have a feeling Policy will pull the lever on LaFluer if he doesn’t make the playoffs.