Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell has become a media darling.  The national talking heads love his tough guy persona, and they especially love his riverboat gambler coaching style.  Campbell has a reputation for going for it on fourth down, almost regardless of circumstance.  Against the Packers Campbell went for it on fourth down five times, including once on fourth and one from his own 31 yard line.  At the time it was late in the third quarter and Detroit was trying to hold on to a three point lead.  The Packers stopped them, and four plays later converted the turnover to a touchdown to retake the lead. 

Some would call the decision to go for it in that situation foolhardy and irresponsible.  Others might say it was an expression of confidence in his players.  Campbell also chose to go for it twice on fourth and goal from inside the five.  His team scored on both tries, but failing either one might well have cost him the game.  He also elected to go for it on fourth and one on the Green Bay 21 with 43 seconds left to play and the score tied.  Getting stopped there would have given Jordan Love and the Packers the ball with plenty of time to get into field goal range and win the game.  Again, the Lions converted, enabling them to run the clock down and boot the winning field goal on the game’s final play. 

Gutsy decisions?  No doubt.  Smart decisions?  I suppose they are smart if you make the play.  If the Lions had lost the game, perhaps the conversation would be different.   

When it comes to taking such risks, Matt LaFleur will never be confused with Campbell.  Green Bay’s head coach tends to lean conservative in terms of risk tolerance.  A good example came on the Packers’ second possession of the game.  The defense had forced a three-and-out, and the punt was fair caught at the Green Bay 48 yard line.  Excellent field position.  Josh Jacobs gained five yards on first down, followed by two incomplete passes.  The Packers were looking at fourth and five from the Detroit 47.   They were already down by seven points.  

This was the type of situation in which a coach like Campbell would not hesitate to go for it.  LaFleur decided to line the offense up but not snap the ball, taking a delay of game penalty.  “That would be one where maybe you could argue that we should have gone for it right there”, LaFleur would later say.   “We didn’t, and that’s that.” 

It’s tempting to be critical of LaFleur for not taking more risks, especially in the shadow of Campbell’s success.  But these head coaches know their teams.  In particular, they know their offensive lines.  The Lions have the best O-line in the league.  It also helps that his offense is often successful on first and second down, meaning Detroit is usually looking at fourth and one or two, not fourth and five.  LaFleur, wisely, is less confident in his O-line's ability to come through on fourth down, especially at a distance of five yards or more. 

Despite Campbell’s renown as a risk taker, his team ranks no higher than ninth in fourth down attempts.  His success rate is sixth best at 68 percent.  He’s gone for it 22 times and made it 15 of those attempts.  LaFleur, by comparison, has gone for it on fourth down just ten times, tied for the second fewest in the league.  The Packers have been successful five of those times, for a rate of 50 percent, tied for 22nd best.  LaFleur knows his team is not good at it, and it’s hard to fault him for hesitating to take the risk. 

Asked if he would consider being more of a gambler in his decisions, LaFleur told the beat writers that it depends on the circumstances.  “The situations have to come up within the flow of the game.  You’re not going to go for it on fourth and goal from the fourteen”, LaFleur said of Green Bay’s final possession of the game.  “Every game is a little different in terms of, how aggressive do you want to be and who are you playing.” 

Going for it on fourth down has become in vogue in pro football.  The Cleveland Browns have done it 34 times.  The Minnesota Vikings have done it just eight times.  You don’t have to be a risk taker to win games.  But you also don’t want to waste opportunities by being overly conservative.  Head coaches like LaFleur get paid to find the right balance.