The Green Bay Packers (5-3) enter the second half of the 2014 season with an important post-bye matchup against the sinking Chicago Bears (3-5) Sunday night from Lambeau Field. 

Here’s five things to watch and a prediction:

1. Interior Spotlight

Both of the Packers starting guards are questionable (50/50) to play Sunday night. T.J. Lang is still dealing with an ankle injury, and Josh Sitton has a bum toe. Lane Taylor and Garth Gerhart are listed as the backups, and Mike McCarthy said this week he’d be comfortable if JC Tretter has to play. If neither Lang nor Sitton can go, Bears defensive tackle Jeremiah Ratliff could have a big night. He missed the September meeting, but he has been Chicago’s most consistent defensive lineman since returning. Lang and Sitton are tough guys, and their extended work Friday is an encouraging sign. It wouldn’t be at all surprising if one or both attempts to play, and the Packers will need them against Ratliff. 

2. Fending off Forte

In the first meeting, the Packers were content giving up chunks of yardage on the ground to Matt Forte. The result was 235 rushing yards but only 17 points for the Bears. Can Green Bay survive another rushing onslaught this time around? The Bears will almost certainly pound Forte, in an attempt to replicate the plan New Orleans successfully accomplished against Green Bay before the bye: run the ball, control the tempo and hit big plays down field off play action. Balance has been a buzz word out of Halas Hall all week. The Packers probably won’t feel comfortable getting the sweep if Chicago rushes for 200-plus yards Sunday night. It’s simply not a typical winning recipe. 

3. Defense Optional

The Bears have allowed 700 points over the last 24 regular season games, dating back to Week 1 of last year. That’s tied for the second worst mark in the NFL, with only Washington (707) allowing more. How hard is it to win when such little defense is played? Of the teams that have allowed at least 630 points since 2013, only the Bears have more than 10 wins (11-13), while the other seven teams have a combined record of 44-140-1. The Packers are 22nd overall at 619 points surrendered. A shootout wouldn’t be at all surprising Sunday night, especially given the fact that the two teams were on pace for 76 total points at half time of the first contest. The winning team has scored at least 27 points in five of the last seven meetings. 

4. Rushing Rodgers

The Bears are running out of answers in terms of pressuring the quarterback. Chicago will return Ratliff and Jared Allen, who both missed the first meeting. But the Bears also lost defensive end Lamarr Houston, who led Chicago in quarterback disruptions when he tore his ACL celebrating a fourth quarter sack in New England. Roll back the tape of Chicago’s blowout losses to the Packers and Patriots and you’ll see a pass rush that had zero impact on the game. Rodgers wasn’t officially hit in the first meeting, and the only sack he took came on a play in which he scrambled out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage. Tom Brady sat in the pocket all day and picked apart a really poor back seven. If the Bears don’t get something out of Allen, Ratliff and Willie Young, Rodgers will slice and dice with the same knife he used back in September. The pass rush is Chicago’s only chance on defense.

5. Turnovers Tell the Story

When Jay Cutler is your starting quarterback, games are essentially won and lost by the turnover margin. Such is the case for the 2014 Bears. In Chicago’s three wins, the Bears have one giveaway and eight takeaways (plus-seven). Over the five losses, the numbers flip to 14 giveaways and four takeaways (minus-10). Head coach Marc Trestman talks about turnover margin at least once a week, because he knows how important it is to all clubs—but especially his. Rarely is a team so easy to break down, but the Bears are a special case. Win the turnover margin, beat the Bears. There’s almost no conceivable scenario in which the Bears lose the take-give column and still upset the Packers on the road Sunday night.  

Prediction: Packers 34, Bears 27 (5-3)

The Bears are a wounded animal that is backed dangerously into a corner. It’s win or season over in Chicago. Will any of that matter when it comes down to Aaron Rodgers against a bad front-to-back defense? Jay Cutler will need to play perfect on the other side to pull off the upset. That seems…improbable. 

Zach Kruse contributes to Cheesehead TV. He is also the Lead Writer for the NFC North at Bleacher Report. You can reach him on Twitter @zachkruse2 or by email at [email protected].