Packers Restructure Lowry And The NFL Limits The 2022 Salary Cap Increase

The Packers elected to generate $2.488M in salary cap space by converting $3.1M of the cash Dean Lowry was set to earn in 2021 into a signing bonus.  The team also added three void years to his deal.  Lowry's contract now looks like this:

YR Base Proration W/O G/A Cap # Dead Savings
'21 $990K $2.122M $300K $400K $3.812M $6.11M -$2.298M
'22 $4.9M $2.122M $500K $400K $7.922M $3.988M -$3.934M
'23 Void $622K     Void $1.866M  
'24 Void $622K     Void Void  
'25 Void $622K     Void Void  

Lowry does not get paid any more or any less than he would have under the new structure, but he gets most of his cash immediately.  Lowry's numbers for 2022 are unchanged.  It is a one-year deal in some respects, but it does make him harder to release in 2022 should the team wish to move on, so that is a positive for the player.  Still, the Packers can still move on from Lowry in 2022 as his ratio of dead money to cap savings is roughly one to one and the cap savings would be nearly $4 million.

The timing is a little surprising.  It may be simply that the Packers like Lowry more than many fans do.  I am a little ambivalent about Lowry: essentially, I just think his production has been too little given his level of compensation.  I have previously suggested a pay cut and have at least entertained the notion of his outright release. 

The Packers appeared to have had enough cap space at present to sign their remaining unsigned draft picks, Eric Stokes and Amari Rodgers, without restructuring Lowry now unless the Packers have an expense that has not yet been public or have another move in mind.  I note that Ken Ingalls estimates $1.619 million to sign Stokes and Rodgers, but here is a table showing why I think the Packers should be able to sign the two rookies for a net expense of about $1.504 million:

Player Pick 29 Yr Base SB Pro Cap #
LB Collier 2019 $495K $1.475M $1.970M
Isaiah Wilson 2020 $610K $1.493M $2.067M
Eric Stokes 2021 $660K $1.511M? $2.17M?
         
Bateman Pick 27 2021 $660K $1.63M $2.291M
         
Player - Pick 85 Yr Base SB Pro Cap #
Jaylon Ferguson 2019 $495K $225.8K $720.8K
Julian Blackmon 2020 $610K $231.6K $841.6K
Amari Rodgers 2021 $660K $237.55K $897.55K
         
$2.17M +  $897.55K = $3.068M  
minus $780K, $784K = $1.564M  
Net change to cap =  ~ $1.504M  

The players in 2019 were fortunate that the new CBA increased the rookie minimum by $115,000 rather than the normal $60,000 increase under the old CBA.  That explains why I did not use the evident progression of $120,000 more for the 3rd round pick and the $97,000 extra for the first round pick's cap numbers.  The cap numbers for Stokes and Rodgers are just my estimates and the actual numbers will be different, but I should be in the ballpark.  Rashod Bateman, the 27th pick in this year's draft, signed for a cap number of $2.29 million, so that at least is an upper limit for Stokes, the 29th pick. 

As a note, $9.85 million of Collier's four-year, $10.836 million ($5.9M signing bonus) was fully guaranteed, or about 95%.  Isaiah Wilson's deal was 99% fully guaranteed.  It seems likely that Stokes' deal will be 100% guaranteed.  Given Isaiah Wilson troubles last year - he was traded and the acquiring team released him just three days later - issues like offsets and voiding guarantees for poor behavior will be the subject of negotiations.  Julian Blackmon got $926,436 guaranteed (his signing bonus) out of a deal worth a total of $4.540 million.  That is about 20.4%. 

 

THE NFL AND NFLPA AGREE TO SET A MAXIMUM OF $208.2M FOR THE 2022 SALARY CAP:

The NFL and the Union agreed that the salary cap in 2022 would not exceed $208.2 million.  I cannot remember there ever being such an agreement in the past.  Nor do I understand why the union or the NFL reached an agreement as to the  maximum amount as opposed to a floor.  This means that the cap might be lower than $208.2 million but it will not be more than that amount.  I had hoped for a 2022 cap limit in the $210 to $215 million range, but that is not to be, apparently.  That is bad news for teams like the Packers whose $237 million in cap liabilities for 2022 already exceed the projected maximum of $208.2 million (and that is without considering the team's unrestricted free agents for 2022).

Here is a link to an article by Jason Fitzgerald of Overthecap with his reasoning as to why this agreement was reached.  While he makes a better argument than I was able to make for announcing this maximum cap number, I do not really find it convincing. 

 

 

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Comments (27)

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 27, 2021 at 10:17 pm

The Packers have Clark, Keke, and Lancaster so I suppose they need another DL until they see what they have in Tederall Slaton and the other holdovers. I thought Lowry might take a pay cut. I thought GB might release him for $3.3M in cap savings and find another veteran defensive lineman - or do a June designation and get $4.8M in cap savings so as to afford a bigger-name veteran defensive lineman.

Moving the $3.1M in base to a signing bonus guarantees the money. It is very clear that Lowry will be a Packer again. I do hope that Keke improves enough to force Barry to give him more snaps than Lowry gets. And of course, it would be nice if Slaton turned out to be a fine two-gapping NT at least to start his NFL career. But whatever is best for the team.

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PhantomII's picture

May 28, 2021 at 09:07 pm

I just hope the new DC will play players who are actually doing better than a starter like playing Gary over Preston and anyone over Lowry.

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CheesyTex's picture

May 27, 2021 at 11:02 pm

Thanks, TGR.

Could you give us an update on where the Packers stand vs. 2021 cap?

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 27, 2021 at 11:31 pm

The Packers are now about $4.7M under the cap after the Lowry deal (OTC indicates $4.9M). Signing Stokes and Amari Rodgers should reduce that by $1.5M or $1.6M by Ken Ingalls' calculations. Net is about $2.1M (edit - should be $3.2M) or so.

Now the team will need $3.1M for the PS, and $1.32M for the 52nd and 53rd contracts when they count in September. Those amounts are mandatory. Plus, they will need $4M or so to operate during the season and to pay for guys going on IR/PUP ($5M would be better).

So the team needs to free up more cap space. Probably something in the area of $5M to $6M more.

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HankScorpio's picture

May 28, 2021 at 07:07 am

"So the team needs to free up more cap space. Probably something in the area of $5M to $6M more."

They will gain some of that ground simply through normal attrition of replacing guys currently in the top 51 with guys not in the top 51. It's a normal part of NFL life that you swing from making the team on potential and cheap contract to being a replacement target. It's not a huge amount per player but doing it 10-12 times adds up.

Right now, Royce Newman is the cut off. He's #51 with Amari and Stoke unsigned to bring it to 53.

I feel pretty good that these guys currently outside the top 53 will bump out a higher salaried guy: Khrys Barnes, Henry Black, Domique Daffney, the draft class from Slaton on back.

Is Yosh Nijman $190k better than Cronk, Stepaniak, etc? Is Hunter Bradley $260k better than Joe Fortuno? Is Devin Funchess $370k better than Malik Taylor? Is ESB $190k better than Begelton, Gaither, etc? Is that WR battle for 1 spot or 2? I say one. Gaither winning it frees up $500k

I doubt the savings will free up all that $5-$6 mil. But it could easily take them halfway there.

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greengold's picture

May 28, 2021 at 06:59 am

Hank, the battles will be fierce, no doubt! I'm looking forward to see how it all plays out.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 28, 2021 at 09:29 am

Challenge accepted! I will keep track - I put today's OTC listing on my own spreadsheet and I will compare it to the roster in September after cutdown day. Most years I would think it works out as a wash, but I think the Packers might gain a decent amount of space this year. The biggest reason is I don't see GB cutting anyone who costs cap space. [Edit: Wrote this: Probably not $2.5M to $3M though. Now maybe a couple of million is possible.]

Going highest paid to lowest, lots of locks and safe bets on this team. The first iffy guy is Josh Jackson (a decent bet to make the 53). Cutting him would save $670K? or so. Cutting Funchess saves about $550K. Cutting Lancaster saves about $380K. I think all of the above make the team: not too sure about Funchess since he hasn't played for 2 years.

Cutting Burks saves $285K. Possibility there. Kaufusi and Redmond each make $920K so each might be $260K in savings. Nauta, Braden, Rush make $850K so could be replaced by younger guys and each might save between $70K and $190K. Summers, ESB, and Dexter Williams might be in jeopardy and each makes $850K, so about the same savings. Summers + ESB have never been cut so they have small dead money hits of $25K. Nijman, Hunter Bradley and Bortles are the other iffy guys. 13 iffy guys.

Royce is 51st plus Stokes and Amari. List of challengers for those 13 iffy guys: Barnes, Dafney, Slaton, Jean-Charles (probably locks), and some bubble to decent bets in Ramsey, Black, Van Laanen, McDuffie, Hill, Patrick Taylor, Tipa, Ento, Stanford Samuels, Previlon, Scott, Uphoff, and a bunch more.

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HankScorpio's picture

May 28, 2021 at 05:12 pm

The names you listed are nearly identical to the ones I was looking at. It's not a list that looks likely to move the needle. $260k here, $90k there done enough adds up.

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CheesyTex's picture

May 28, 2021 at 03:24 pm

Thanks, TGR.

So tight I can hear the squeaks all the way to Texas.

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Coldworld's picture

May 27, 2021 at 11:22 pm

I too am puzzled at the fixing of the cap ceiling. I can only assume that the league wanted some certainty in planning and that the Union feared it might be less and thus wanted to at least put a flag in the ground.

I am baffled by Lowry. He’s a good guy, has been very healthy ( as far as I know) but he’s just not good. As a rotational player perhaps, but at this price he’s paid to be a starter. I saw his coach talking up his improvement as last season progressed. Was he carrying an injury? If not, as a returning vet, why did he dip in the first place?

By no benchmark I know of has Lowry justified being part of a 3 man line and only rarely a 3 man line. He has often been a liability in the run game and frequently manhandled. In the passing game he’s seldom a disruptor. Yet the new coaches seem to like him as much as the old, at least at present. I can’t even concoct an argument as to why that I can find semi plausible (health and attitude without being good isn’t one in pro sports).

Like you, I’d hoped he’d be released or take a pay cut and concomitant role reduction. It is clear he’s not getting released and at the moment it looks like he will get a majority of the snaps. I’d love someone to explain why that seems like a good plan and why last year was acceptable.

The only thing I can come up with I’d that he was playing hampered by injury. We know from Kevin King that Pettine was willing to play his preferred player hobbled over a younger healthy one to the point of seeming absurdity. Was that the case with Lowry? After the restructure I am clinging to that possibility (which, if true, makes Pettine’s departure even more welcome),

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Alberta_Packer's picture

May 27, 2021 at 11:32 pm

Then he must have been playing injured the last 2 years because he was either mediocre or bad.

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Coldworld's picture

May 28, 2021 at 07:35 am

Yes, I was trying to express bewilderment and fish for a legitimate explanation, as I said. Count me as sharing your doubts.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 28, 2021 at 12:10 am

PFF gave Lowry good grades in 2017 and 2018, and meh grades in 2019 and a slightly worse meh grade in 2020. So it has been a two-year slide for Lowry, as Alberta alludes to below.

Though we've been at loggerheads lately over AR, we both never understood why Lowry got snaps over Keke and over Winn or Rush, though Rush only played one freaking snap. In a way, the coach's criticism of Lowry's early-season play is the first I've seen acknowledging any deficiency if or discontent (that was sort of a backhanded compliment sort of thing).

As for the rationale for announcing a cap maximum, I just threw my hands up in the air and linked to OTC.

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Alberta_Packer's picture

May 28, 2021 at 12:42 am

I think that Lowry's decline over the last 2 yeas - coincides with Daniels leaving the team in 2019 - thereby exposing Lowry as a rather plodding player.

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greengold's picture

May 28, 2021 at 04:54 am

Thanks for sharing this, TGR. I don’t get it either. Never have. I find the Lowry moves to be the most baffling of BG’s career.

Regardless, this is stellar work, and much appreciated.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 28, 2021 at 08:33 am

Thanks for the kind words. I thought folks would like to see how the estimates for signing draft picks work as to reducing cap space, net effect. Most years I would do the above and figure on it costing a little more due to cap inflation, but there isn't any cap inflation. It is deflation, though just a blip.

The $208.2M max if instituted for 2022 would be a 14.1% increase in the cap over 2021's. However, using 2020 as the base, it would be an annual increase of just 2.5%. [$198.2M times 2.5% = $203.155M times another 2.5% increase = $208.23M. Close enough.]

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PhantomII's picture

May 28, 2021 at 09:16 pm

Baffling....AKA....Pettine....enough said.

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PatrickGB's picture

May 28, 2021 at 09:55 am

If Lowery was playing injured, then why don’t I remember him being on the injured report with obvious injuries? But then maybe it’s just my memory.

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Alberta_Packer's picture

May 27, 2021 at 11:28 pm

I'm somewhat dumb-founded with the Packers retaining Lowry. Every time I watched him during the last 2 years - he was getting stood-up at the line - as the play passed him by. And, if he ever made a positive play - it was because someone missed an assignment on the o-line.

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jannes bjornson's picture

May 28, 2021 at 04:05 am

He can play pass, but cannot hold position in the run stop, no doubt.

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stockholder's picture

May 28, 2021 at 06:48 am

Should have been cut to save more.

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Fabio's picture

May 28, 2021 at 02:46 pm

I agree 100%. Another example of bad management of the roster and above all another example of bad evaluation of the goodness of the players.
Oh I forgot ..... Gute is very good

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HawkPacker's picture

May 28, 2021 at 07:11 am

Before Lowry signed the new contract I thought that this guy can play. The FO got rid of Daniels so my thought was, we no longer need Daniels because Lowry is a beast. Then he signs the new contract and his play decreases. I would like to have faith in the FO but really do not understand their attraction to Lowry.

I did notice a bit of improvement at some point last year but for what he is getting paid I was expecting much much more.

I was hoping that they would either cut him or he would take a reduction in pay but the FO feels differently. Now he gets his money up front and I don't think his play will improve but will digress. When he signed the new contract his play went down hill and now that he is getting most of his pay up front the same thing may happen.

I sure hope I am wrong. Maybe as mentioned previously, he has been fighting an injury and that is the reason his play is as bad as it has been. We shall see!

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Alberta_Packer's picture

May 28, 2021 at 11:32 am

“The way to see by faith is to shut the eye of reason.” - Benjamin Franklin

I understand that Gutekunst is a man of faith.

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flackcatcher's picture

May 28, 2021 at 07:59 am

Why do I get the feeling that the Cap number was something both sides came to, because they have no clue what the league will bring in this year. Personnel decisions are always half voodoo, front offices will never admit that of course.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 28, 2021 at 08:41 am

The OTC article explains a little in that the CBA requires a good faith estimate of revenues around this time. I think the national revenue is more definite. The local revenue looks like it might spring back to normal - fingers crossed on no setbacks.

There is little doubt that the Packers lost at least $80M in local revenue due to the lack of fans in the seats. Some estimates put it over $100M - hard to say whether the team was able to generate more revenue on line and the like.

GB's financials come out usually in late July, usually just before TC starts. You can be sure CHTV will cover that. It should give clues as to how much of a loan the owners gave just to prop up this year's still small $182M cap limit.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

May 28, 2021 at 09:21 am

Nico Collins signed - he was the 89th pick. Collins signed for:
$225,730 SB Proration + $660K base = $885,730.

Dyami Brown signed - 82nd pick. Brown signed for:
$238,909 + $660K = $898,909.

My estimate for Rodgers 4 slots higher was $897K. That might be a little high.

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