The Past

Week 6 of the 2014 season started much like it had in recent years; a big loss in the season opener to the defending Super Bowl champions to get into the hole early followed by steam rolling teams at home, good enough for a 4-2 record.  Still Rodgers had to tell everyone to “R-E-L-A-X” after a 1-2 start before only losing 2 more games for the entire season, capped off by a regular season win against the Patriots. 

The Present

(All statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders, click here for a detailed description of DVOA and DYAR.  And as always defensive DVOA is the inverse of offensive DVOA so negative numbers are better.)  

As strange as it might sound, the 2015 Green Bay Packers up to week 6 are actually playing better than their 2014 counterparts; most of this has to do with the fact that the defense and special teams took a big jump, specifically against the pass.  Again, this probably sounds a little odd considering Philip Rivers just threw for 503 yards but keep in mind Rivers is a top-10 quarterback and the defense was expected to give up more yards than it had to previous (not-so-great) quarterbacks.  On another note I do find the hypocrisy of the “Packers defense struggling against great quarterbacks” narrative funny; the reason that a quarterback is a great is because he can pick apart a defense and it’s not like I hear many Packers fans complaining about Aaron Rodgers picking apart opposing defenses. 

As you might expect, running efficiency has gone down, most likely due (or at least in part) because Eddie Lacy is hurt or unable to get a rhythm going but surprisingly, while Aaron Rodgers DYAR at this point is lower than it was in 2006, he actually has been more effective with his throws.   

The Future

Typically I write about front office mismanagement, salary cap woes and a lack of identity and clear purpose on the football field; luckily for fans, the Green Bay Packers are one of the most well run and successful football franchises in the league.  Aaron Rodgers is likely in his prime, the offense is balanced and productive and the Packers finally seem to be taking a step forward on special teams and defense.  There’s no transition or rebuilding looming, no owner to randomly decide to throw money at Albert Haynesworth, no fans buying billboards to fire their head coach. 

So far so good.  However no team is perfect and the Packers will have holes to fill.  First is the continued loss of talent in the front office.  Since the Super Bowl winning 2010 season, 3 front office executives (Reggie McKenzie, John Schneider, John Dorsey) have been poached to run operations of their own and multiple notable scouts have also moved on to higher positions.   With the Packers continued success, expect to see other front office executives like Eliot Wolf, Brian Guntekunst and Alonzo Highsmith get interview opportunities.  Unlike players, front office personnel are trained and groomed for years and while Ted Thompson has managed to keep the ship afloat so far, one has to wonder how many more people can the Packers front office lose and still be effective at scouting. 

On the football field, tackle and inside linebacker are perhaps the two most pressing issues.  While Bryan Bulaga has been a solid tackle, his bookend has been anything but, with Marshall Newhouse, Derek Sherrod (sort of) and now David Bakhtiari all in the mix.  Bakhtiari is an upcoming free agent and is frankly not a very good player, however some team will likely overbid on his services and the Packers do not have any players really waiting in the wings. 

The second need is at inside linebacker.  An interesting take that came out of conversations with the defensive line was that in recent years their main responsibility was to occupy blockers and make sure that the linebackers were clean and in position to make a play.  In a sense they were sacrificing pass rush in order to protect AJ Hawk and co. (who would then get dragged for a gain of 4 yards).  With Clay Matthews on the other hand, they can let him be double teamed since he’ll probably make the play anyway, which allows them to rush more up field and get after the passer.  The results have been astonishing and if the Packers defense continues at its current pace it will shatter the team’s single season sack record.  Unfortunately, the world only has one Clay Matthews III, and allowing him to be more multiple rather than inside on running plays and outside on passing plays will allow the Packers to get that much more pressure on the quarterback. 

Overall, it’s hard to not like what the Packers have done.  While they aren’t destroying teams like they did in 2011, they also are a lot more fundamentally balanced and far more adaptable.  While we might never see the video-game numbers that the Packers put up in 2011, the 2015 Packers are undefeated just like them.