Jordan Love heaves a ball to Matthew Golden for a 3rd down completion in Sunday's game against the Dallas Cowboys.

After four weeks of the 2025 NFL season, the Green Bay Packers have had some really great moments as well as several very frustrating moments. The great moments include convincingly beating two of the final four NFC teams last year in Detroit and Washington.

There was also scoring 40 points against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday and answering almost every Cowboys score with one of their own in the second half and overtime.

The lows range from blocked kicks, allowing Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to score at will, and two back-breaking turnovers from quarterback Jordan Love.

For all the ups and downs so far in just four weeks, the biggest strength of the team has arguably been its 3rd down offense. Currently the Packers lead the NFL in 3rd down conversions at a staggering 53.7 percent. On Sunday against the Cowboys, the Packers were 11 of 15 on 3rd downs. It is a big reason why they scored a touchdown or field goal on all five possessions after halftime.

To put in perspective how good 53.7% would be for an entire season, only 10 offenses have been over 50% on 3rd down conversions for an entire season since 1992, which was Brett Favre’s first season.

Through four games the Packers are 29 for 54 on 3rd downs, the next closest teams are Miami (48.9%) and San Francisco (48.1%).

The last time the Packers led the league in 3rd down offense was all the way back in 1995, Brett Favre’s first MVP season. The team was 49.1% on its 3rd downs, which helped them get to the franchise’s first NFC Championship game and first championship game since the 1967 Ice Bowl.

What kind of indicator is 3rd down offense for team success for a season?

Under quarterback Brett Favre, every season the team finished in the top five of 3rd down offense, they finished with a winning record. Those seasons were 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998 and 2004.

Under Aaron Rodgers, the only season his teams finished in the top five of 3rd downs and didn’t make the playoffs was 2008 (his first season as a starter). The other seasons under Rodgers that were in the top five were 2009, 2011, 2014, 2016 and 2020.

Jordan Love, like his two predecessors, also finished in the top five of 3rd downs in his season as a starter, as the team converted 47.1% of its 3rd downs in 2023.

There are likely two reasons for the success on 3rd downs: 1. Josh Jacobs’ success as a short-yardage runner, and 2. Jordan Love’s ability to throw the ball downfield.

If an offense is good on 3rd downs consistently, it generally is an indicator that a really good passer at quarterback leads the offense.

Going back to Favre’s first season in 1992, there have been six teams who led the league in 3rd down offense at least twice, and in every occasion they were led by a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback.

Teams/QB's to lead league in 3rd down Pct multiple years since 1992

The Packers should be getting back both Christian Watson and Jayden Reed at some point to help their passing game, which should only help its 3rd down offense. As of now, it could be come the identity the offense is lacking, as long as they lean into it and trust Love to make the plays with his arm.