The time for winnowing out the depth is when pads go on, but I’m surprised that you rule out Shepherd. Not because I had him as a steal when we picked him up in camp last summer, but because, by the end of it he was clearly the next WR up. He doesn’t have the freakish athleticism or size of Neyor or Sturdivant, with the caveat that he’s got the best vertical. But he’s also not a similar type of player.

He’s a decent size (6’3”,196 pound) possession type who runs precise and predictable routes and has very good hands, elite vertical and body control, making a huge catch radius and has thrived in contested catch situations. All of that showed up after he joined us last summer. He was, to me, the biggest surprise offensively as he was never really on my radar. I could see him providing a Doubs like option for LaFleur that LaFleur would not want to do without.

The other player, also not on my radar at all, is Barnhart. Now I’ve not seen him in pads and I really haven’t dug into his film, so this is not based on play, but he was regularly with the 2s this summer at RG and I think some RT. Perhaps that’s just body management to get others snaps in desired positions, but it also could suggest that they see significantly more in him than you or I have.

For the rest it’s in limbo till pads have been on for a while. Of the ones written off by you, I will be watching Marlon Jones at CB, because I don’t think anyone can know where he is or what he could be because there’s really no recent film of him at close to his physical best. There simply no benchmark material on which to reliably estimate his potential. Who knows if he is a feel good camp body, a raw PS development prospect for polishing or perhaps something unexpectedly more?

I agree with Andy's list(s).
I'd have added more commentary on the players' special teams abilities, however.

The only surprise to me was excluding TJ Quinn. I think he has a chance to unseat
Niemann and Welch if he shows ability as a special teams player. Niemann and Welch are both 28 years old, while Quinn is 25 . All three of them ran a 4.5, and Quinn blocked a kick last year.
I still think Niemann is most likely, but if Quinn has a great camp, I could see Gute choosing youth.