My One and Only 2023 Packers 53-man Roster Prediction
Jersey Al takes his annual shot at predicting the Packers roster just before cutdown day.
By JerseyAl
You've read too many 53-man roster predictions, you say? No kidding! Weekly predictions seem to be the norm nowadays. Going back over a decade, I've tried to be kind to you and only do one of these.
So here it is, my annual stab at predicting the Packers' 53-man roster. Note that for the majority of this prediction, this is what I think the Packers will do, but it's hard to not let a little personal preference sneak in at times.
The Turk is a cruel taskmaster, and soon, 37 NFL dreams will hit a bump in the road or be ended completely.
It's never a fun day, but it is a fun exercise to try to predict the outcomes.
Here goes:.
OFFENSE: 24
QB: Love, Clifford
RB: Jones, Dillon, Taylor
TE: Musgrave, Kraft, Deguara
WR: Watson, Doubs, Reed, Toure, Heath, Wicks
OL: DBAK, Jenkins, Myers, Runyan, Tom, Walker, Nijman, Newman, Rhyan, Jones
HELLO NEWMAN! Or is it GOODBYE NEWMAN!? This might be the toughest call. I went back and forth multiple times on this and I will probably be wrong. The decision could come down to how many OL the Packers keep game active. That number is usually seven or eight. Because Tom can slide inside if needed, I see the Packers going into games with Rhyan, Walker and Nijman as the backups. So why keep Newman if he isn't going to have an active role? Because there's safety in numbers and we just don't know how much we can count on Bakhtiari from week to week. As for the WR group, with a bunch of young receivers all looking to get game action, keeping seven WR seems superfluous. DuBose's injury limited what he could show in camp, so he's an easy transition to the PS. I'm going against the popular opinion and going to say Patrick Taylor makes the roster right out of the gate this year because the Packers have a lot of special teams snaps to replace (Tyler Davis).
DEFENSE: 26
DL: Clark, Slaton, Wyatt, Wooden, Brooks, Ford
ILB: Walker, Campbell, McDuffie, Wilson
OLB: P Smith, Gary, Van Ness, Enagbare, Cox
CB: Alexander, Douglas, Nixon, Valentine, Shemar Jean-Charles, Gaines (Stokes to Reserve/PUP)
S: Savage, Ford, Owens, Johnson, Leavitt
I'm taking some real chances here. First is Jonathan Ford. Keeping 6 DL is not something that is done often, but Ford has gotten a lot of snaps this preseason and looks very good. They did not try to hide him in any way and as Ted Thompson like to say, there are only so many guys like him out there - other teams have noticed. Plus, they kept him on the active roster all last season, so the Packers saw something pretty valuable for them to do that. Finally, if Slaton were to get injured, Ford would be the best choice to play NT without having to move Clark there. Next, while I think Innis Gaines hasn't developed as the Packers hoped, the versatility he provides in being able to play both CB and S and contribute on special teams is what saves him from being cut. Personally, I think Benny Sapp III has looked like a better player, but he can't play CB, which is needed until Stokes returns. Jean-Charles provides CB depth and a lot of ST snaps. I love what I've seen from Jimmy Phillips. While not the typical high-RAS guy the Packers like (3.44), he has been all over the place in camp and preseason, racking up the snaps and tackles at OLB. However, while I think Carpenter has run out of chances, I can't see the Packers parting ways with Eric Wilson. Carpenter and Phillips go to the PS. A "surprise" cut here is Hollins. Cox's upside wins out and I don't see them keeping 6 OLBs. In the safety group, they keep Leavitt because he is a Bisaccia favorite on special teams, even though he is a major detriment to your team if he has to step in and play safety. That's where Anthony Johnson comes in, who has looked good back there and has also been racking up the special teams snaps.
SPECIALISTS: 3
Carlson, Whelan, Orzech
The winds of change blew into the specialists room as we have a new trio for 2023. The only real surprise here is Whelan over O'Donnell. I'm definitely going against popular opinion, but if the Packers are willing to roll the dice with a rookie placekicker, why not a punter, too? Whelan has performed well, is eight years younger than O'Donnell and saves the Packers some money. Overall, 2023 looks to be a year of building for the future with youth, and that principle should apply to the specialists' room as well. If the Packers think Whelan is improving enough as a holder for Carlson, this makes a lot of sense.
PRACTICE SQUAD:
DuBose, Bonds, McGough, Goodson, Wilson, Carpenter, Phillips, Sapp, Telfort, Slayton, Allen, Ballentine, Thomas, Empey, plus add a street free agent tight end and guard.
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"Jersey Al" Bracco is the Editor-In-Chief, part owner and wearer of many hats for CheeseheadTV.com and PackersTalk.com. He is also a recovering Mason Crosby truther. Follow Al on twitter at @JerseyalGBP.
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Comments (51)
greengold
August 28, 2023 at 09:16 am
God!!! Another one…??? Sheesh!
Lolz. Nice work, Al. Good rationales all around, except ST influences. It’s time Bisaccia gets other, better positional players coached up if he’s to improve his #22 ranked ST unit from 2022.
Isn’t it time we stop holding Rich Bisaccia’s hand?
If these ST regulars he has can’t contribute elsewhere… ??? Gaines & Leavitt offer nothing for Joe Barry. That hardly seems fair. We need improvements on D, not non-contributors.
Bisaccia can coach up any player. You forgot Tarvarius Moore. He also happens to be a great ST player.
My last updated guess:
OFFENSE (25)
QB (2) Love, Clifford
RB (3) Jones, Dillon, Wilson
WR (7) Watson, Doubs, Reed, Toure, Wicks, DuBose, Heath
TE (3) Musgrave, Kraft, Allen
OL (10) Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Myers, Runyan, Tom, Nijman, Walker, Jones, Rhyan, Telfort
DEFENSE (25)
DL (6) Clark, Wyatt, Slaton, Ford, Wooden, Brooks
OLB (6) Gary, Smith, Van Ness, Enagbare, Hollins, Cox Jr.
ILB (3) Campbell, Walker, McDuffie
CB (6) Alexander, Douglas, Stokes, Nixon, Valentine, Ballentine
S (4) Rudy Ford, Moore, Johnson Jr., Tyrell Ford
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Carlson
P Whelan
LS Orzech
T7Steve
August 28, 2023 at 09:54 am
I thought you'd bring up Melton.
greengold
August 28, 2023 at 09:57 am
Gotta be available.
T7Steve
August 28, 2023 at 10:43 am
How's he doing? What will happen to him?
jaxpackfan
August 28, 2023 at 09:16 am
Al's explanations make sense. Good list.
SicSemperTyrannis
August 28, 2023 at 09:23 am
Fellow Joisey boy here,
I still want to see Bo Melton on the PS.
If they keep 6 OLBs that would tell us they plan on using LVN on the interior line, at least a little.
Is Empey worth even a PS slot? Do Delance & Tenuta both show more upside? Idk but this seems pretty important to me.
I can't see parting ways with #47 Hollins completely.
Most of this roster prediction seems pretty clear!
friarpark
August 28, 2023 at 09:29 am
Is Whelan a good enough holder though?
Coldworld
August 28, 2023 at 09:42 am
As far as I know, no one has identified a divergence in results by holder.
greengold
August 28, 2023 at 01:50 pm
I'm pretty sure that Anders Carlson made more FGs/PATs this TC and preseason with Whelan holding than he did with O'Donnell.
Coldworld
August 28, 2023 at 09:37 am
I think Allen may have won a spot with his play on Saturday.
I think we have to keep a second G. However, I think that person is not currently on this roster. It may be that is Newman on Wednesday, but not the Wednesday after that.
Gaines for me is just not good enough. Depth that isn’t good enough is a trap. I could say that of most of the S group, though the way the competition was conducted seems to have compounded that through a game of musical chairs. The only one that flashed anything worth keeping for me was Moore, briefly. I’d keep him over Owens. I’d rather play Ford than Owens and AJJ has more upside. I’d keep Tyrell Ford on the PS for a longer look at S/slot.
I’d like to see S, G and slot claimed or churned in to compete with Newman, Gaines and the safeties if they survive. Allen looked better as a blocker than Davis, but we find a PS TE too.
Everyone seems to think Wicks won’t make the PS. I’m dubious, but that’s the only reason we roster that many. With Musgrave, 5 true receivers is all we need on the active roster initially as far as I can see.
One thing that seems almost certain is that Gute will be churning where he finds potentially talent well into the season.
P.S. I just saw that Allen emerged as PFF’s 5th highest rated run blocking TE in the league in preseason. I doubt we do better than that, even allowing for PFF not always being spot in. Interestingly, well above Davis.
BirdDogUni
August 28, 2023 at 10:57 am
If Gutey's Pro Personnel can't find a better guard than Newman, they should all be fired... (I think they will.)
Newman's mental mistakes are even worse than his physical shortcomings, which is almost unbelievable.
stockholder
August 28, 2023 at 11:07 am
I think it has more to do with being a draft pick.
And Still hoping the light goes on.
jannesbjornson
August 28, 2023 at 11:31 am
For him, or Gutedkunst?
Ferrari-Driver
August 28, 2023 at 10:01 am
I don't have enough knowledge about the individual players to come out and strongly push for one of these players over the other. The starters and front line backups are clear enough and most all predictions I've read agree for the most part.
I do like the thought of Whelan being able to kick us out of a hole in the colder months of the season. It may take a while for our offense to be at full force and if we get into field position games and a duel between punters becomes significant, Whelan's stronger leg may come in handy.
Ferrari-Driver
August 28, 2023 at 05:14 pm
I just read where the Packers just released Pat O'Donnell a couple of hours ago. I do hope our new specialists are able to perform well. Both are strong legged and young.
https://www.packers.com/news/packers-release-p-pat-o-donnell-2023
TKWorldWide
August 29, 2023 at 06:21 am
“I don’t have enough knowledge about the individual players”…Are you sure you’re in the right place? That rarely stops anybody! 😉
T7Steve
August 28, 2023 at 10:02 am
Why did I cringe when I saw Newman on Al's list?
We have so much talent in the O-line room that they didn't draft or pick up undrafted talent this season and he's still there to haunt me? Is he good on STs?
Since'61
August 28, 2023 at 10:14 am
Since I didn't watch any of the preseason games except for a few highlights I can't disagree with Al's projected roster.
I realize that Goodson is injured but I still believe that he is the best of the group of himself, Taylor and Wilson.
The projected offense looks spot on to me with Newman as the possible exception.
The defense looks good with the possible exceptions of Cox and SJC. We'll see who get moved when Stokes returns to the CB group. The Safety unit does not inspire very much confidence for me but that's where we're at.
We'll find out and compare tomorrow. Thanks, Since '61
Coldworld
August 28, 2023 at 11:30 am
Goodson would need to be a slot/option guy. They never really got to test him in protection. Last year I thought we cried out for that. This year, we have Reed and various others taking slot snaps. It’s going to be tough. We could carry him and put him on IR. We could IR him now if his shoulder is a longer term issue.
GregC
August 28, 2023 at 10:17 am
Keep Hollins and Moore, and cut Newman and Jean-Charles, and it's pretty much where I'm at. Maybe elevate Austin Allen from the practice squad a few times, and then add him to the roster if they can't find a better TE to take his place.
Since Wooden and Brooks are so similar, I wonder if they might have only one of them suit up for games. Put Jonathan Ford in there in short yardage situations, so the D-line would be Ford, Slaton, Clark, and Wyatt. That would be pretty stout!
mnbadger
August 28, 2023 at 12:27 pm
I agree with GregC with one addition.
I'd suggest we swap Allen and Dequara at TE. Deguara will be safe on PS.
Allen might not be due to youth, $, health and higher ceiling, IMO.
GPG!
LLCHESTY
August 28, 2023 at 10:19 am
I can't say I actively looked for him while he was playing but in the times I did notice him Telfort did not look like an NFL player to me. Lumbering is the 1st word that came to mind and lumbering doesn't work in the NFL, no matter how big you are.
greengold
August 28, 2023 at 10:40 am
Telfort is development talent. He’s huge at 6-8 319 out of UAB. 35 7/8” arms… Didn’t get many reps.
Here’s some stuff on him:
Physical, tone setting power blocker. Wide body able to slide & mirror outside rushers. OUTSTANDING SCREEN BLOCKER! + instincts. Gets out front quickly. + flexibility. + feet. + quickness. Strong flexible core able to anchor bull rushes.
Jolts with an amazing hand punch. You don’t see him getting beat with speed on the outside in pass pro. Overpowers 2nd level defenders. Excels in cut blocks down line. Mean streak. Only allowed 1 sack in 2022.
T7Steve
August 28, 2023 at 10:49 am
I forgot about Telfort. Is there any way they can cheat and keep all 90 somewhere?
greengold
August 28, 2023 at 01:56 pm
I have the Packers keeping Telfort on my 53. They kept Ford for a full season on the 53 to better develop him. Could see same with Telfort.
Since O'Donnell was released ($1.25M cap savings), it kind of confirms to me they are looking at every cost saving measure they can take here very seriously. More to come. Can't see Newman (over $1.8M in savings over 2023-2024) surviving. Yosh might be a question mark per Andy Herman, if they can't trade him... Nijman would be a 4.3M savings to the cap. Savage would be a $5.5M cap savings to GB if released.
T7Steve
August 28, 2023 at 02:40 pm
One big sign of change in the front office and coaching if they were to give up on Savage.
Do you really think it possible they let him walk? I think he could have a bounce back year and did pretty well in the slot after benching last season, don't you think?
greengold
August 28, 2023 at 04:31 pm
I don't know, Steve, but we'll find out soon enough. Savage has severely underplayed 3 of his 4 seasons, but, maybe they keep him around.
Regardless of who is back there at S, they should benefit greatly from the added pass rush this season. We've got a lot of unproven young players now who I think might wind up being better, but a bounce back is needed if he sticks. 100%.
Had laid out a plan earlier to keep 8 WR's rostered initially, so that we can move Hicks and Melton to IR to protect them. Might still be something they consider. Going into Week 10 last season, our WR corp had been hit pretty hard with injuries piling up. Demovsky said Watson and Doubs had only played 52 snaps together to that point.
Lazard missed 2 games and questionable for 2 others, Cobb missed 5... Watson missed 4 games with 4 different injuries, knocked out of 1 game in Q1 with a concussion. Doubs missed 3 games... questionable in another. Malik Taylor 1.
Protecting Hicks & Melton would be a smart play IMO. Especially in today's passing league. Having replacements at the ready just in case of injury would help keep LaFleur's entire playbook more at the ready. Procedural 1 day on 53 then to IR. Add a couple more a day later after they clear waivers.
Coldworld
August 28, 2023 at 06:04 pm
Savage will be owed his fully 5th year option guaranteed salary, if he’s cut it just accelerates. They make no saving by doing so and we don’t get better by playing the others at this point.
Coldworld
August 28, 2023 at 11:34 am
People compare Telfort to Caleb Jones athletically. The problem with that was Jones tested at 370. It was him coming in at about 50 pounds lighter that unleashed his athleticism and that we saw. Maybe If Telfort could shed ten pounds or so to about 310, it might help. If the team thought that, then I’d understand keeping him on the PS.
stockholder
August 28, 2023 at 10:34 am
Hollins, Taylor, Ford ,McDuffie,Charles, Leavitt.
1. Barry still would keep Hollins. And Ford is cut for Cox- IMO
2. Taylor- doesn't start, And the competition got better. PS for me.
(Why ? Because the whole NFL needs Secondary guys. )
3. Therefore Carpenter over Mcduffie. Versatility?
4.Charles isn't the starting NB. - Gaines & Nixon there.
5. Leavitt gets burned. I get St. But I'd keep MOOre!
Ballentine and Thomas have more upside.
And the way they pick up guys for workouts.
Both could be protected and then moved to the PS.
jannesbjornson
August 28, 2023 at 12:08 pm
They will decide between Carpenter vs Wilson at ILB. Carpenter prefers SS. Is this another game of square peg/round hole ?
Coldworld
August 28, 2023 at 05:42 pm
Wilson is actually competent on D and was our best special teams player last year. An easy decision if that’s the case.
LambeauPlain
August 28, 2023 at 10:39 am
Thanks Al. I have been waiting for your roster prognostication as I wait for all your columns.
I differ on Newman, Ford, Gains, SJC.
Newman is now a JAG as a blocker who reverts to holding not to get beat. And a holding call wrecks drives a high percentage of the time.
Ford is improving but I'd keep 5 and consider Van Ness as depth there who would be active every game at OLB where Ford would likely be inactive. They could lose Ford to another team's 53...but unlikely.
Definitely keep Hollins. Cox played a ton of snaps in the preseason and flashed some talent...but enough to take spot on the 53? I think he makes the PS.
Gains is a JAG's JAG at CB. To consider him as a versatile CB who can back up a mediocre S room of more JAGs is wasting a roster spot. I wouldn't even put him on the PS. I would keep Sapp because as you say, Leavitt is just a core ST guy.
And I would, after plenty of time to develop, say adios to SJC. Ballintine to replace them with Stokes being rostered...maybe moving to IR afterward.
Agree to Gutey needs to use ultrafiltration on the waiver wire for more talented at S, TE, IOL, ILB.
dobber
August 28, 2023 at 12:09 pm
"... waiting for your roster prognostication"
I had roster prognostication once, but after some physical therapy it cleared right up.
PackEyedOptimist
August 28, 2023 at 10:44 am
Good list Al, though a couple things:
The Packers ALWAYS keep 25 offense and 25 defense...it will be interesting to see if that changes this year.
Gaines isn't great, but he's better than Jean-Charles and does the same things.
I'll be surprised if they cut Hollins.
I HOPE they cut Leavitt, but I have my doubts.
T7Steve
August 28, 2023 at 10:55 am
Isn't it funny we just went through this last week? You've got me leaning in your direction on Hollins now and was surprised by Al's choice because of it.
Coldworld
August 28, 2023 at 11:44 pm
Hollins has probably been our 2nd best OLB with meaningful playing time in preseason games, so 4th best , if you count Gary and P Smith. Enagbare has been better than him, but he’s good enough in the run and pass games that he’s a legitimate rotation player. I don’t think he’s cut.
Al likes Cox more than some seemingly and he’s right that there is there a chance another team might take him on waivers after a settled summer. He was likely a 4/5 rounder absent his problems and atrocious testing. I think he’s shown he’s more athletic than that. I think his point was we aren’t cutting Van Ness or the top 3. He’s probably right if we have to keep only 5 and one has to be Cox. However, I think that, if the team agrees with Al on Cox’s upside and attractiveness to other teams, they keep 6 and develop Cox on the roster.
splitpea1
August 28, 2023 at 11:16 am
Hello: J.Ford. We definitely want to be keeping him.
Goodbye: Newman. Youth and potential win out here.
Agree: Taylor, for reasons stated.
Disagree: Hollins. I think it would be a mistake to let him go right now.
Coin flip: Leavitt. You would like to think we could do a little better here, but I'm not sure how many surprise cut candidates are out there to fill his spot.
Leatherhead
August 28, 2023 at 11:20 am
The only issue I have is putting Wicks on the 53. I'm not sure what he's done to merit that. He's not that big, he's fast, but not greatly faster than other guys we have. Given that well over 100 WRs will be released this week, I'm kind of wondering why we wouldn't just release and then sign him to the practice squad.
Ever since before the draft, I was warning that Newman and Hanson were our #7 and #8 offensive linemen. Hanson is gone, but Newman is still in the mix. I think the team has given him ample opportunity, trying him at RG, LG, and RT, but he hasn't really seemed like a fit in any of those places. He's 26, so I think its not real likely he's going to improve.
GregC
August 28, 2023 at 12:51 pm
Wicks and Dubose are in the same boat. Both of them were injured for most of training camp, but they both flashed at times when they did get on the field. I think if it comes down to keeping one or the other, the advantage goes to Wicks based on draft position. I agree that Wicks should be safe on the practice squad, but I still lean toward keeping him as the #6 receiver.
HarryHodag
August 28, 2023 at 11:51 am
Read somewhere(J-S?) this morning that Nijman could be a trade possibility. The cap is an issue and he's making $4 million, will become UFA next year and paying a backup left tackle starter money might not fly.
The Packers could get a mid-round draft pick for him they said. They think Walker and C. Jones could be backups.
This is likely David B.'s last year in GB(cap issues) , but the Packers might roll the dice. It is said next April's draft will have a bounty of offensive tackles available.
Coldworld
August 28, 2023 at 11:51 pm
I think someone on the coaching staff doesn’t like Nijman.
TKWorldWide
August 29, 2023 at 06:29 am
I know Jerry doesn’t.
GregC
August 28, 2023 at 11:57 am
Big news: The Packers just released Pat O'Donnell, which means that Daniel Whelan has won the punting job. Jersey Al is one-for one so far with his roster predictions.
LambeauPlain
August 28, 2023 at 12:09 pm
I agree with the move. O'D was good placing the ball...but Whelan is a field flipper.
2 very strong legs in Green Bay.
JerseyAl
August 28, 2023 at 12:19 pm
stop the contest!
LambeauPlain
August 28, 2023 at 12:06 pm
Wicks is taller than Toure and Reed and would be the second heaviest WR.
Personnel managers would have to decide if Wicks is the guy from VA 2 years ago when he may have been a 1st or 2nd rounder had he declared or last year after a rough season (drops and team issues).
I think he showed in camp the Wicks of 2021 may be back in 2023 and is worth being #5, 6, or 7 on another team. I don't think he makes the Packers PS.
Coldworld
August 28, 2023 at 05:51 pm
Wicks put little on tape. It is clear he has burst, but it’s also clear that his top end speed is as timed. He catches better than billed, which was his biggest knock in the draft, but a second major one was speed. He’s no faster than Heath or DuBose, ten pounds lighter than Heath. He can separate, he’s got potential but he’s a possession guy.
He will not get grabbed. Possession guys without a great NFL record rarely if ever are. There is a reason he was a late 5th and he hasn’t changed that. I still like him as a prospect, if he can stay healthy, but he’s going to need Heath injured to jump him. They play too similarly despite their testing. And Heath is far more physical.
4thand10
August 28, 2023 at 12:54 pm
I think Corey Ballentine replaces Gaines. I also think they find a way to keep Sapp. Even at the expense of Levitt or jean-charles. # 48 Sapp carried some very fast 1st strings all the way down the sideline for pass break ups. I say they go the packers way and get younger and cheaper. In no way did i see Levitt out perform Sapp. The Taylor and Wilson decision is the back breaker conundrum…you have taylor who commands a vet minimum vs the highest rookie production of all preseason RBs. Tough call but I’d go with Wilson…especially after the seahawks game…he looked excellent in pass pro blocking and Aaron jones gets injured at least once a year for a short duration. RBs have an average shelf life of about 8 yrs so in this case they find a way to keep Wilson…he is plastered all over the media and was even featured on USA today sports.Taylor they’ve let go and resigned many times.. Nijman, Walker and Tom are all locks. Nijman and Walker will be manning the left side next year when Bak is gone.
Thegreatreynoldo
August 29, 2023 at 03:38 am
Jean-Charles is terrible. Same guy now as 2 years ago. Goner.
Gaines is the backup slot. But he's not a good one. Goner?
Owens is terrible. STs saves him? Naw.
Taylor is the same guy. PS for him.
Allen makes the 53. Takes Taylor's spot.
Hollins makes the 53. Takes Jean-Charles spot.
Carpenter makes the 53 on upside. Takes Owens' spot,
Ballentine makes the 53. He's okay and is on STs. Take Gaines' spot.
4thand10
August 29, 2023 at 10:35 pm
Awe man…we were so close!!! I’m gonna guess that Ballentine and Sapp will be signed to the PS…fingers crossed.