In Chicago, The Psychological Stakes Are Sky High
The Bears try to conquer their past, the Packers seek to overcome their present -- and the future is up for grabs
By Mark Ballard
September 20th, 1992. That was the date Brett Favre took over at quarterback for the Green Bay Packers. It was the very beginning of a Hall of Fame career that would eventually segue into another Hall of Fame quarterback and career, which would then shift, yet again, to another young star-in-the-making (Hall of Fame TBD).
This incredible, often magical, run of success in Green Bay has included 2 Super Bowl wins, 9 NFC Championship game appearances, 15 NFC North division titles, and 7 MVP awards.
Of equal importance, the Packers have turned the tables on their longtime rival Chicago Bears. Prior to 1992, the Bears led the all-time series against the Packers, with a record of 80-57-6. But after three-plus decades of “I still own you!” dominance, the Packers are now on top, 108-96-6. Do the math. The Packers are a jaw-dropping 51-16 vs the Bears since Favre took over.
During that span the Bears have been through more false hope than Susan Lucci at the Emmy’s. Rex Grossman took them to a Super Bowl (but lost). Then they traded for Jay Cutler, and he was supposed to be the guy (he wasn’t). Then they drafted Justin Fields, and then Mitch Trubisky, and they were each supposed to be the guy (they weren’t).
Finally, in 2024, the Bears drafted the Heisman Trophy-winning, can’t-miss USC gunslinger, Caleb Williams. Following a rocky rookie season where the offensive coordinator and head coach were both let go, Williams appears to be rounding into a real talent under the tutelage of offensive guru and new head coach, Ben Johnson.
Adding to the surprise, the Bears have even done reasonably well building around their young quarterback, with a now-stout offensive line and young, emerging weapons at the skill positions.
Though the Packers just beat the Bears in week 14, it’s actually the 10-4 Bears who currently lead the NFC North, just ahead of the 9-4-1 Packers by the slimmest of margins. The winner of tomorrow evening’s primetime affair will seize control of the NFC North and the loser will be sent scrambling for a playoff berth with just two games to go.
But if those seem like pretty high stakes, the psychological stakes may be even higher.
From the Bears POV, they absolutely have to win this game. First, they’re at home. Second, they’re facing a battered Packers team that is without their best offensive lineman, star tight end, and most critically, their all-world defensive superstar. The Bears may not see a Packers team this vulnerable for another decade. This is their big chance, and they surely know it.
Adding to the Bears’ tension is the weight of their own words. When Ryan Poles took over as the Bears GM in 2022, he promised the Bears would take control of the North “and never give it back”. Head coach Johnson followed suit in his introductory press conference, alluding to his enjoyment beating Matt LaFleur twice the previous year (with the Detroit Lions). Having lost to the Packers once this year already, the pressure is on.
For Caleb Williams, tomorrow's game represents an opportunity to begin writing his own legacy in the NFL, and to finally make a break from all the failed Chicago quarterbacks of years past. It’s also a chance for Williams to win over the Midwest’s largest City and its legion of sports-obsessed, victory-starved fans.
While the Bears may be battling the psychology of their past, the Packers, by contrast, are battling the psychology of their present. Before last week’s Red Wedding in Denver, the Packers were riding the high of a 4-game win streak, with increasingly realistic dreams of Super Bowl glory. Suddenly, that’s all in doubt.
Micah Parsons (12.5) and Devonte Wyatt (4) had 16.5 sacks between them – the same number as the rest of the Packers roster. Losing half their sack production might sound very problematic, but it’s actually so much worse than that. Without Parsons and Wyatt in the mix, opposing offenses can either shift their protection toward Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness (you thought they were struggling before?), and/or they can send more players upfield, creating more targets and stressing the Packers’ linebackers and secondary.
Absent a big elevation in play from Gary, Van Ness, and/or JJ Enagbare – or the emergence of Barryn Sorrell, Brenton Cox, and/or Collin Oliver – expect opposing quarterbacks to have a frustrating amount of time to throw the ball the rest of the way. To combat that, Jeff Hafley will need to get creative with the linebackers and safeties, bringing pressure from different sources. The defense as a whole will need to become more aggressive and opportunistic creating turnovers.
Whatever regression occurs on the defensive side will need to be overcome by an abundance of point-scoring by the Packers offense. Thankfully, that fix isn’t entirely outside the realm of possibility. Jordan Love has been playing tremendous, MVP-level ball, and the Packers finally have all their WRs back and reasonably healthy (Watson’s Denver injury doesn’t appear to be serious).
Critical for this Packers offense will be starting fast and scoring points early. Doing so will give LaFleur more latitude with his play calling, and the ability to extend drives with Josh Jacobs and the run game. Clock-consuming drives will give the Packers defense critical rest, while limiting opportunities for opposing offenses.
For the Packers coaches, this Chicago game represents a critical test of what this team can be without Parsons. Can they find difficult solutions in a short week? Can they motivate and rally their players who might be downtrodden and frustrated following the crash in Denver?
A Packers win would certainly demoralize Chicago and might even spin them out of the playoffs (the Bears finish the season with difficult games vs the 49ers and Lions). It’s an outcome that would badly damage the Bears universe as they head into an offseason pondering a potential future in Indiana. However, if the Bears win, it could signal the resurgence of a team, a city, and a rivalry.
It’s all on the line tomorrow night. Go Pack Go.
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Mark Ballard is an obsessive Green Bay Packers fan, born in Buffalo Bills country, but raised right by a Mom from Rice Lake, WI. You can find him on X at @ballark
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Comments (33)
PatrickGB
December 19, 2025 at 10:29 am
This is still a good defense! Let Love hit the check downs (including Jacob’s) and play focused.
PackerBackerAZ
December 19, 2025 at 03:14 pm
Nobody knows if the Packers now have a good defense. They're down Parsons, E. Williams and Wyatt and haven't improved the corners.
We do know that Johnson is a very good coach. Will he keep Williams in the pocket and dice up the Packers secondary? Will he make adjustments to run successfully against Hafley's defense?
Will ol' three and out, four and out or interception Love show up? Or, will elite Love show up?
That's why they play the game: to find these things out.
GregC
December 19, 2025 at 10:31 am
Nice analysis. This really is a big game for the Bears.
My only quibble is with the part about it being critical for the Packers to start fast and score points early. I'm tired of hearing this before every game. When is it NOT helpful to get an early lead? Of course that would be nice, but in the NFL (or pretty much any sport), you have to win games all kinds of ways. Maybe it will be close all the way and the Packers will win. Maybe the Packers will fall behind and make a comeback. That's happened a couple times this year (at Arizona and Pittsburgh). Just get the job done, one way or another.
jannesbjornson
December 19, 2025 at 11:28 am
I fell asleep with the Rams up a couple scores and 5 minutes + on the clock. I wake up to see Seattle pull if off in OT. The New Game of Pro Football is unpredictable.
murf7777
December 19, 2025 at 04:06 pm
The game has always been unpredictable. Remember when Seattle came back in the last 5 minutes of the NFC Championship game? Yikes, bad memories. In that game, Seattle got an onside kick and the last night they had a punt return for a touchdown. I agree that teams being more willing to go for it on 4th and short, regardless of field position, adds to the unpredictability, but there's always been, especially since the 90's with more passing unpredictable outcomes.
GBPfaninMO
December 19, 2025 at 10:58 am
San Francisco has been hit pretty hard with injuries & managed quite well so hoping GB can do the same.The tie to Dallas & loss to Cleveland REALLY look bad now but 4 me if they can go 5 & 1 or ,GASP, 6 & O in the division, success in the playoffs may feel like gravy.
splitpea1
December 19, 2025 at 11:00 am
It's understandable that the main topic lately is our diminished pass rush, but the next two games we really need to be focusing on QB containment and keeping the respective running games in check. We do this and we can win both games. And don't forget to cover the TEs!
Bears universe is already damaged. How could it not be after all these years? But yes, it would be great to see their hopes crushed yet again.
It will also be fun to watch the saga of the Bears' search for a site to build a new stadium. They've apparently expanded their list to include northwest Indiana because of possible funding delays in Arlington Heights. So this has pissed the local officials off greatly. Wherever they go, I hope they ditch the idea of playing in a dome. I would hate to see the Packers as the only team in NFC North who hosts the traditional (and correct) experience.
Leatherhead
December 19, 2025 at 11:12 am
I watched the Rams/Seahawks last night. Two of the best teams in the NFC. And I was struck by how many mistakes both teams made down the stretch....turnovers, penalties, dropped passes.....
Neither of these teams looked unbeatable, and the Bears aren't unbeatable, and the Packers aren't unbeatable.
To Splitpea's point about the pass rush v. containment: Let's remember that less than 2 weeks ago, the Bears scored 21 on us, on our field, when Micah Parsons was present. I'd suggest we move the baseline up from there, since this game is in Chicago and we don't have Parsons.
Williams was 19-35...that's just a little over half. He also ran for 15 yards in 4 attempts. Those 35 passes only garned 185 yards, and Math says that's 5.3 yards/attempt, and that's not very good. It's only slightly better than running it. I frequently say I'd rather see teams run instead of pass because 7>5, but this is more like 5.3 > 4.3. Still better to encourage them to keep it on the ground.
When Williams rolls to his right, it shrinks the field we have to defend. IF we take away that roll, we're exposing the secondary more because he's throwing it to the entire field and not just those 10 yards near the sideline. If it were me, I'd encourage him to keep running towards the sideline, but we're going to have to put somebody fast enough to chase him down in Parson's spot, even if it's a DB, so he can't just take his sweet time to look downfield. Make him thread the needle to those receivers on the sideline.
Can the Bears score enough points on us to win by doing those 10 play drives ? I'm dubious.
Major Snafu
December 19, 2025 at 12:59 pm
Good points. We should all keep in mind were talking December in Chi town. Maybe it comes down to the run games. Passing and even kicking for any distance may be at a premium due to the cold and wind.
I say its a close game with maybe one big mistake by either team deciding it.
A lot of people are posting the secondary needs to step it up and I say they are stepping it up they arent very good, this is their best.
murf7777
December 19, 2025 at 04:14 pm
LH, you’re right about rolling out only defending half the field. But it also gives the receivers more time to find open zones. Normally Defenders can only successfully defend for a few seconds, any longer and there becomes a big advantage for the pass catcher. Some of the biggest plays happen when the play breaks down and the QB scrambles. I’d rather we keep him in the pocket, stop the run, and force his below-average accuracy to beat us.
LambeauPlain
December 19, 2025 at 11:23 am
Packers have one of the best road records in the NFL this season. They have been successful traveling down I-94 to bareland especially.
The Packers are the best 3rd down offense this year. Their most points have been scored in the 2nd and 3rd quarters...the time to pull away from the bares and get at least a 2 score lead. Love is superb when blitzed. He now knows the offense so well, when the blitzer comes at him he quickly looks to the receiver whose route goes through the vacated area. Josh Jacobs is a beast and needs to growl more in the pass game more. He's a great receiver...get him in space with short/medium passes.
None of the above has anything to do with the Packers wounded Defense. Time for the Offense to do heavy lifting.
Expect the bares to be overconfident. Hubris often precedes the fall.
murf7777
December 19, 2025 at 04:00 pm
I don't get why you feel the defense can't do it without Parsons and Wyatt. Wyatt & Clark missed or played a shell of themselves many games last year and we still had a good defense. We also have players with another year of experience while adding Hobbs. Hobbs can fill in nicely if Williams is out. We have Cox back who had an impressive pressure/sack for 7 games towards the end of last year.
I don't think one or the other has to carry this team, it's not like da bears are a juggernaut. And even if they were, it's next man up attitude. These guys became pros because they are talented.
PackerBackerAZ
December 19, 2025 at 04:16 pm
From what I've been reading, Anderson will fill in for Williams. That would keep Bullard in the slot and Hobbs a backup.
Wyatt had improved his play this season from last. Clark, seriously? There's no comparison of Clark's talent level or position played to Parsons.
Talent will only take you so far. Look to Gary and Van Ness for examples of all world talent and mediocre play.
NFLfan
December 19, 2025 at 11:59 am
I like Ken Lass's idea-send Edgerrin and Quay after Williams immediately x 7-8 plays. Edgerrin can get to him.
He knows how to slide through O-Lines. Perhaps McKinney could rush later on. Mix and Match.
WorseWisconsin
December 19, 2025 at 12:50 pm
"more false hope than Susan Lucci at the Emmy’s"
Sorry but...WOW...Susan Lucci? I had to look her up. You're old.
"From the Bears POV, they absolutely have to win this game."
Well, certainly if you polled most Bears fans, if they had to pick just one game to win of the next 3, they'd pick beating the Packers, based purely on the rivalry and record over the last 3 decades.
But the Packers game is the least important of the Bears' 3 remaining games. It's a mathematical fact. The Bears:49ers could be a critical tiebreaker for a wildcard spot, and Bears:Lions may turn out to be a 'winner goes to the playoffs, loser goes home' game.
murf7777
December 19, 2025 at 02:25 pm
I think the game is important because it’s against GB, but if the Bears win the next two, wouldn’t they already secure a playoff spot, making the Lions game less significant?
PackerBackerAZ
December 19, 2025 at 04:33 pm
If da Bears beat the Packers and the Lions lose to the Steelers they're in the playoffs.
Major Snafu
December 19, 2025 at 01:02 pm
I'm dam glad it aint me out there playing. Burr! I didnt even check the weather but its got to be dam cold tomorrow evening. Hot chocolate anyone? With Snapps!
TarynsEyes
December 19, 2025 at 01:28 pm
I think the psychological stakes are higher for the Packers.
The Bears have been a team in despair for a long time, and they have seen a bright spot open, and they're no doubt enjoying it, but the Packers have been enjoying the sunshine for years, and they could be on the cusp of seeing the shade engulf them, especially with all the hype of the previous years with love being the 3rd HOF QB in a row for GB. Losing out on another Division Title and possibly a playoff spot, yes possible, would be a severe blow to what was supposed to be, at last, the coming of age for the Love era.
What is more psychological failure, the Bears continuing to be/do what they've been, or the fall of what GB was and was highly touted, QB dominance, to not have been lost.
murf7777
December 19, 2025 at 02:22 pm
I agree there’s pressure on GB to maintain a high level. I’m not fully convinced about the idea of “all the hype from previous years about Love being the 3rd HOF QB in a row.” While there may be some of that, I think most people just believe he has the potential to reach that level, rather than him already being crowned by widespread hype. To me, the buzz was more like, watch out, this could happen.
jannesbjornson
December 19, 2025 at 03:54 pm
I think he will have a good game as long as the dudes up front decide to show up, focus and set a real tone.
pantz_bURp
December 19, 2025 at 02:01 pm
"The Psychological Stakes Are Sky High..."
Soundz like click-Bate's Motel to me.
#24601,
Pantz
murf7777
December 19, 2025 at 02:18 pm
"Absent a big elevation in play from Gary, Van Ness, and/or JJ Enagbare – or the emergence of Barryn Sorrell, Brenton Cox, and/or Collin Oliver – expect opposing quarterbacks to have a frustrating amount of time to throw the ball the rest of the way."
Brenton Cox, already had an emergence, just go look at his numbers the second half of last year when they started giving him a lot of playing time. He's the man to make it happen. He had a very high-pressure rate.
TXCHEESE
December 19, 2025 at 03:23 pm
Agreed. Cox is the one man on the roster who can best replicate the bend and violence Micah Parsons has when getting after the QB.
Unless the starting QB goes down, you can throw injuries and records out the window on these games. GB is wounded, but the wounded animal is the most dangerous animal.
Packerpasty
December 19, 2025 at 04:18 pm
The man to make it happen is Hafley.....if he leaves huge gaps in the middle of the field again the Bears will once again exploit it...and everyone in the world knows Williams likes to roll out to his right, the Packers knew it last time...this time do something about it...
murf7777
December 19, 2025 at 05:08 pm
Caleb's completion percentages are highest over the middle! Yes, he and the players better stop it. A D-coor can only do so much then it's up to the players to execute.
Since'75
December 19, 2025 at 02:35 pm
I'm going a lil tired of hearing about the Bears being relevant all of a sudden.
Why? Because they are 10-4 one year.
Since 2007 the Bears have won 10 games or more 4 times.
OMG....so scary!!!....lol.
Last season the bears were 5-12.
This season, 10-4 so far.
Congrats, here's a 🍪
The Bears have won, what?
Nothing.
***********
Rivalry, ok, whatever.
There hasn't been much of a rivalry since a glimpse in the 2010 season.
Some may remember that, when Cutler said 'No Mas' over a phantom injury.
Instead of facing the Packers in the 2nd half of a NFCCG, he preferred the solitude of his sideline training bicycle smoking a cigarette. (don't care)
The rivalry before that (80's), was an intense one.
A lot of you weren't born yet.
Head coaches Forrest Gregg, and Mike Ditka.
Players actually had a hit list of other players numbers on their towels they wanted to 'take out'..
When the Packers played the Bears back then, it was war, sometimes brutal.
No one expected those Packer team in the 80's to win a Championship.
But, back then...watching the Packers/Bears, was must see TV.
Since'75
December 19, 2025 at 02:49 pm
The Packers have a lot of high priced talent, High draft picks, and free agents.
Micah is out, he wasn't there last season when the Packers made the playoffs
If the Packers win...Fantastic!!
If they don't, they only have someone themselves to blame.
*****
Yes, Micah is a loss.
This is the NFL, there is no crying in the NFL.
When you lose a player...what do you do to adjust for the loss?
Players 'step up'
Team plays complementary football.
Maybe Love and his plethora of receivers score more points?
Maybe the defense creates turnovers, possibly scoring turnovers i.e. pick 6, fumble recovery.
Or just a good turnover that the offense can take advantage of, and score.
Maybe even special teams...could do something special?
This is a team game, play complementary football.
Head back up to Green Bay late Saturday night, with a victory.
Packerpasty
December 19, 2025 at 04:14 pm
it got way too close at Lambeau, better be ready to get out in front and keep the peddle to the metal...lets not get a lead and have MLF play afraid to lose again....
Since'75
December 20, 2025 at 08:14 am
All gas, no brakes!!
It's time!
joejetson
December 19, 2025 at 07:15 pm
One factor that could come into play is Chicago's injury situation at WR. Both Odunze and Burden III are "OUT". This may help level out the Parsons' injury. Their TE Kmet is also "Questionable", as is RB Swift.
Williams may have more time to pass, but not be able to find an open receiver.
The weather is expected to be windy, so it could end up being an Old Time running game meatgrinder type game.
I'd love to see the Pack build a lead , shut the crowd up, and watch Williams start throwing interceptions.
Ihappydirt
December 20, 2025 at 12:03 am
Why are all these writers so doom-and-glooming? Hafley will dial up pressure like last year when we didn't have Parsons. Chi is missing their top 2 WR, when GB just got their best back in Reed and Watson's likely to play. Plus Golden and Savion are ready to go.
This time GB will pick Caleb off earlier for a game-turning play.
SinceLombardi
December 20, 2025 at 11:20 pm
Thanks to Romeo Doubs and Keasan Nixon, the worm may have turned.