How Can the Packers Still Open Up More Cap Space This Year
Extending Rashan Gary is the smartes way to create cap space for the Packers now
The Green Bay Packers have been forced to take a different financial path this year, as they have taken a more conservative approach. The Packers have basically maxed out their flexibility, extending or restructuring almost anyone possible to have the ability to operate after being in the top half of the league in cash spending in five of the last six years.
Right now, the team is 13th in the NFL in cap space, with $ 14.3 million, but there aren't many moves left to be made. The Packers are the second to last in cash spending, just ahead of the Los Angeles Rams, so they probably don't want to kick the can down the road as much to have a clearer salary sheet moving forward.
Going back to 2022 and getting an apples to apples comparison using dead caps through early July, the Packers ended the 2022 season with top 51 players at:
Cap: $201,890,768
Cash: $264,476,812
Cash-to-Cap: 1.31Packers are spending $90M less cash on players at $10M more cost. https://t.co/cysS6kj04d
— Ken Ingalls - Packers Cap 💰 (@KenIngalls) July 11, 2023
However, there are still some moves left, and Rashan Gary in particular could make a lot of sense. Therefore, this is what they can do now if they want to open up more cap space without cutting or trading any players:
Rashan Gary extension
Gary is playing under the fifth-year option of his rookie deal. That means his contract only has a base salary, with no bonuses. It's a $ 10.892 million cap hit. If or when the Packers decide to extend him, they will be able to backload to deal in order to create immediate flexibility. It's possible to open up around $ 3 million with this move.
"Rashan is a tone-setter, and I think you guys see that each and every day," head coach Matt LaFleur recently said. "He's got the capability of wrecking practice. He's just relentless. He plays with a great motor and energy, and I think it rubs off on everybody. He makes everybody around him better."
The Packers will certainly extend Gary anyway. It's just a matter of when it will happen, how much it will cost, and how the deal will be structured, so it will be possible to analyze how much cap space will be opened.
In the last big-time deals, the Packers have included relatively small signing bonuses and big roster bonuses in year 2, so there is a significant real guarantee to the player, and at the same time the team gains financial breathing room for two years.
Restructures
There are still a few veterans that the Packers can work restructures with, adding void years to move money to future seasons. The most impactful would be offensive tackle Yosh Nijman, who's playing under a second-year restricted free agent tender worth $ 4.3 million. If the Packers convert as much base salary to a signing bonus as possible and add four void years to his deal — he would have to agree to it —, it's possible to open up over $ 2.6 million in 2023 space.
The other option is Jon Runyan, who is in the last year of his rookie deal. He's earned the proven performance escalator, so he's making $ 2.8 million, much more than the average sixth-rounder. Because of this, it's possible to open almost $ 1.4 million, with the same mechanism of converting base salary to signing bonus and adding void years.
If the Packers make these three moves, they could end up with $ 7 million more in cap space, jumping to more than $ 20 million. They would still need room to sign their last draft picks who remain unsigned and operate during the season, considering injuries and practice squad elevations and promotions. However, there would be more flexibility to make additions if needed or wanted.
It's a different season for the Packers, though. After maxing out and stretching their modus operandi to explore the final years of Aaron Rodgers' window, the team is reconfiguring their roster with cheaper players. The ones who succeed will receive extensions in the future and, knowing that, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst and executive vice-president/director of football operations Russ Ball are smartly cleaning their bills.
-----------------------------
Wendell Ferreira covers the Green Bay Packers for Zone Coverage and Cheesehead TV. He is a Brazilian journalist with over a decade of experience covering the NFL, soccer, NBA, and MMA. Follow him on twitter at @wendellfp
__________________________
PLEASE SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHEESEHEAD NATION WEEKLY NEWSLETTER HERE.
__________________________
Comments (77)
Leatherhead
July 11, 2023 at 11:36 am
Thanks for this. It's always nice to have an awareness that it costs money to have nice stuff.
""If the Packers make these three moves, they could end up with $ 7 million more in cap space""
This involves kicking the can down the road on three starters to gain $7million this year. For what purpose? Who/what are we going to get for that $7 million? Why don't we just use that money to help resign those three players you just mentioned?
IMO, we could rent a pretty good, experienced, backup QB for less than $7million. So we're kicking the can down the road to rent Carson Wentz or Teddy Bridgewater for a year? But other than that, I don't see any available FAs that might have any real impact on the fortunes of the team this year for under $7 million.
On the Record: I'm opposed to pushing back debt unless it's necessary, and I don't think it meets the criteria for necessary.
HarryHodag
July 11, 2023 at 02:27 pm
You hit the nail on the head. Wendell didn't say WHY the Packers would want to open up more cap space. D. Hopkins is the top free agent, along with Dalvin Cook. Neither is likely to want to come to Green Bay.
If the Packers hold out long enough they will be able to get Bridgewater on the cheap. They already likely have enough cap space to do that. They can release a couple of veterans not likely to make the team and afford Bridgewater.
The idea of extending players, kicking the financial can down the road yet again to get....what?
Leatherhead
July 11, 2023 at 02:38 pm
To me, it's the product on the field. You don't want to sacrifice the quality of the team for financial reasons unless there is no other choice. It's a last resort.
I hate the idea of acquiring a player with the purple taint, like like the overly troubled Bridgewater, but I can't believe that Plan B in GB is "We'll get a Day 3 rookie QB to lead the team in 2023". IMO, a really, really shaky Plan B.
Nobody likes to spend money on insurance, but we do it.
TarynsEyes
July 11, 2023 at 03:51 pm
"Nobody likes to spend money on insurance, but we do it."
Bridgewater is insurance that won't pay off. He has proven that many times.
Maybe look at that Insurance Company with the Emu, and only pay for what you need, and that isn't a backup QB.
Leatherhead
July 11, 2023 at 05:59 pm
Because, as you have repeatedly made clear, only the last game of the season is significant, and only if you win. Otherwise, you're just failing. I understand your perspective.
By your standard, only a backup QB who had actually won a Super Bowl would qualify as being worth it.
On the other hand, if you think we've got a pretty good team, but we don't have any insurance at QB, the insurance would be worth it. Bridgewater has done this, in different places.
If you don't think we need a reliable, experienced backup, we're going to disagree.
Bitternotsour
July 12, 2023 at 10:35 pm
@Leatherhead. Teddy Bridgewater can't throw a 10 yard out. Why anyone would spend money on that guy to hand the ball off is beyond me. Even before he got hurt at Minnesota, he was all hype, no actual arm. Teddy B is not good.
Leatherhead
July 13, 2023 at 01:34 pm
Well, over his career, he's 33-32 as a starter. That's one game above .500.
I'm not talking about throwing big money at him to be a starter, but if Love is going to miss some games, it'd be nice to have a chance to win half of the ones he misses.
If you look at the FA QBs available, he's one of the better choices, IMO.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Also, in the last 30 years, how many times have we gone into the season with the plan of "We'll draft a Day 3 rookie and make him the backup"?? I'm thinking 2008, with Matt Flynn, although the plan was probably to use Brohm, who they took in the second. Flynn was just insurance (there's that word again).
But that's it, I think. Once, in the last 30 years, we've started the season with a Day 3 rookie as our backup QB. And the plan was probably initially for it to be our Day 2 guy.
So....I'm not believing this is our plan this year.
TKWorldWide
July 11, 2023 at 04:33 pm
“Overly troubled Bridgewater”
I appreciate that!
Coldworld
July 11, 2023 at 05:27 pm
Let’s get out from under this burden! Absolutely right. If this core isn’t better next year then we have bigger problems. Keep cap for then and beyond. Rodgers is gone, we need to grow players and our options to compete in the FA market for players that could put us over the edge, not merely take snaps from a young player or make us a little less poor if something adverse happens this year.
mrtundra
July 12, 2023 at 07:12 am
I don't care if Hopkins or Cook do not want to play in GB. I would not want either on my team. I think Hopkins is Sammy Watkins 2.0. Cook may be a good RB, but how healthy is he? Where would he fit on the Packers roster when we have Jones and Dillon, now? Neither Hopkins nor Cook are worth the investment we'd have to make to get them, IMO.
dobber
July 12, 2023 at 09:06 am
Hopkins was still a very effective WR when he played last season, mostly with garbage QBs after Murray got hurt...way moreso than a Sammy Watkins.
That said, he's not a fit in GB. Any additional cap space could be used to conduct day-to-day business (PS signings and pay, in-season acquisitions, etc.) or put other extensions up that allow them to swallow some guaranteed money against that space in 2023 and not down the road.
Frankly, I think Wendell's ideas of pushing out cap hits against Runyan and Nijman on void years don't make a lot of sense. That's more $$ against a tight 2024 on guys who we don't know how they're valued by management.
greengold
July 12, 2023 at 02:00 pm
Totally agree. I like who we have, and I think LaFleur may want to stick with the youth movement. Save some dough while creating more opportunities for growth in what looks like a very talented WR Corp. Same goes for backup QB. If they see a need to address by adding a veteran player, they'll be able to do that.
OL positions are pretty much up for grabs this TC, outside of Bak & Elgton.
Lotta ballgame left. Should make for a really fun camp & preseason. We'll see.
Guam
July 12, 2023 at 07:45 am
Thank you LH for well reasoned financially sanity. The Packers aren't likely to win the Super Bowl this year, so lets take this year and clean up the financial mess. That will allow the Packers more financial room to make moves in 2024 and 2025 when they will have a better shot at the big prize.
ImaPayne2
July 11, 2023 at 11:50 am
The day they drafted him I thought, the guy sounds like Perry and reminds me of Perry, a guy who lit it up his last year and then bolted for Mr Mo Money. Perry thumbed his nose at Michigan even though he was from there and Gary went to Mich but seemed to be absent in the big games.
He hasnt signed an extention for a good reason, he wants to also meet Mr Mo Money.
T7Steve
July 11, 2023 at 12:03 pm
Gary is a hard worker according to all his teammates and coaches. Make all the voluntary and other practices and works well with others. Trys to be a leader.
If he works on getting better at setting the edge on run plays, he's up there with the elite.
HarryHodag
July 11, 2023 at 02:50 pm
Are you talking about Rashan Gary? Gary and Nick Perry have one fundamental difference: one can play NFL football at a high level and the other one never did.
All you need to do is look at the Packers defense last year after Gary left to see his impact.
I'm sure there's some guy from Slippery Rock A & I who got cut from the USFL who would work cheap which apparently meets your criteria.
WestCoastPackerBacker
July 11, 2023 at 03:20 pm
Not even related. And if Gary had not gotten hurt this season, I bet the extension would already be done. The injury muddies the water a bit; too bad, he was just really kicking butt when he got injured last year.
Perry had one really good year and a ton of injuries. Gary has grown each year in the system and not missed much time at all until the knee. Perry was not extended for a his fifth year and had a monster year on a one-year contract. This is nothing like Gary, who has worked hard and just gotten better. Perry was a backup for much of his career until 2016. Gary was a starter his second season.
Oppy
July 11, 2023 at 05:57 pm
Perry's issue was not work ethic, desire, or talent. It was injuries. It is also false that Perry only played during his contract year.
But I digress. We all know you're a Vikings troll. Packers go 11-6 and win the North in 2023.
Rory P Scrotem
July 12, 2023 at 06:59 am
The stuff you write just doesn't make sense? Gary is a stud and should be paid accordingly.
splitpea1
July 11, 2023 at 12:44 pm
The Packers will make sure he's fully recovered from his injury before taking the plunge, which is estimated to be at $26 million/year. Whether or not they wait until he actually plays in the regular season, I don't know, but that's a lot of money (duh). T. J. Watt gets about $28 million/year for his services, and while I like Gary, there's no way he's at that level, or even that of Myles Garrett, who received his $25 million/year extension a couple of years ago. Maxx Crosby with his $23.5 million salary also has significantly better stats, even when you take Gary's injury in account. So in conclusion, I don't want to see Gary get away, but I think the Packers should be careful about his health status and not overcompensate him, either.
I'm all in favor of extending Nijman; his versatility at both ends makes him an important part of the equation going forward, and a valuable insurance piece on the left side should we need it this season.
SpikeHyzer
July 11, 2023 at 02:46 pm
You're blindly looking only at sack stats, which are still very good for Gary. It's not about putting the QB on the ground. Those splash plays don't happen very often.
He's top 3 in the league in pressures and win rates, which are what result in incompletions and occasionally INTs (both much more important and bigger splash plays than a sack, which is only a really big deal on a crucial 3rd down).
Thus, Gary is absolutely on the level of all of those other guys. He's without question a top 3 EDGE in the league.
splitpea1
July 11, 2023 at 03:03 pm
You're blindly assuming I only looked at sacks; I looked at combined tackles, TFLs, QB hits, and passes defended. Thus, Gary is nowhere close to the other three in those categories. Defending the run is also part of the job, and that's something he needs to improve upon.
SpikeHyzer
July 22, 2023 at 12:44 pm
TFLs are utterly immaterial from an EDGE. QB hits are the SAME STAT as a pressure or hurry (they are combined and it simply doesn't matter whether you make contact or not to produce a bad throw).
Passes defended? What sort of moron thinks that an EDGE should have passes defended? That's a stat for DBs and OCCASIONALLY INSIDE LBs.
Thus, you ARE still looking at ALL the wrong stats. NO EDGE puts up numbers in those categories. NONE. Not one.
BTW--had he played a full season, Gary would have had OVER 12 sacks. If he had gotten hot down the stretch and the team moved toward contention, it may have been more.
He's top 3 in the league. Period. He's just that good.
It's the middle of the D that failed against the run, as well as ILBs and S. He's not to blame for their terrible run D.
fireball
July 11, 2023 at 01:14 pm
If Gary looks okay on the field this coming season, I would be willing to trade him. He is not worth 25 million dollars a year as some analysts have stated. Gary was not worth the first round pick that Green Bay used on him.
To go in hock for Gary is crazy. I mean he's just okay as an edge defender. Runners get around him all the time. Gary's main focus almost always is to go after the opposing quarterback. That's all he seems to think about: is to get to the quarterback.
He could be worth far more as a trade. He's young yet. Some other team could be fooled into giving up a first-rounder for him. And then the Packers would be saving millions of dollars at the same time.
If Gary is able to play well this coming season, trade him. . . for a first rounder at least.
But the Packers, as usual, will shell out far too much money. . . as they did with Rodgers and Bakhtiari.
SpikeHyzer
July 11, 2023 at 02:48 pm
How is a guy who is ranked top 3 in both pressures and win rates not worth 25 million?
Sacks are pretty overrated and he's still good in that department.
Those pressures lead to incompletes and occasionally INTs, and incompletes happen WAY more often than sacks--which only really matter on 3rd down--and INTs are far bigger splash plays than a sack.
He's a top 3 EDGE via advanced stats.
Leatherhead
July 11, 2023 at 03:03 pm
Gary is a very good player, one of our Top 10 defenders, and if he can rebound from the injury, he'll continue to be one for us. You absolutely want him on the field when he's playing well. He could have several good years yet.
On pass plays, his main job is to get to the QB, so we agree that he's focused.
Edge pressure is a primary component of the Packer defense, and Gary is one of the guys who can bring that, along with Smith and Van Ness and Enagbare. This hasn't happened by accident.
IMO, the Packers will work out something that works for them and works for Gary, who will turn 26 during the season. The guy has already made $16 million, will make another $10 million, and has already earned enough money that he can do what he wants for the rest of life, so I don't believe it's just money. If he's happy in GB, and he's doing what he wants, why wouldn't we able to work something out?
PASSdaRELISH
July 11, 2023 at 10:04 pm
I can’t think of any player who’s ever given his team a discount on his first chance at probably his biggest payday of his career. If Gary does I’d be shocked.
SpikeHyzer
July 13, 2023 at 04:41 pm
Top 10 is quite ungenerous considering there are only 11 starters on D.
He was number one BY FAR on this team last year because he was top 3 in the entire NFL by his position at the time of his injury (via advanced stats).
Among the starters last year, Clark and Alexander were the next best and both fell far below their normal standard and were not ranked in the top 5 at their positions.
Can't think of anyone else with a high snap count per game average who could have ranked better than Gary.
Leatherhead
July 13, 2023 at 04:56 pm
Only 11 starters, but in reality, we play more than 11 guys on defense 6 DBs, 3 or 4 down linemen, 3 edge rushers, two ILBs. I think he's in the Top 10, and probably more like the Top 5, but the point is that this guy is one of our better defensive guys.
If it's 3rd and 5 late in the game, which 11 defensive players do you want on the field? Is Gary one of them? I think so.
Prediction: We'll see Gary, Smith, Van Ness, and Clark applying pressure, we'll have Walker and Campbell behind them, and we'll cover with Alexander, Douglas, Savage, Stokes, and ..............to be determined. I think that Ford is going to get the first shot, but that's all it is. We're going to have an inexperienced safety lining up next to Savage at the back of the defense this year. That's our best case scenario right now.
I think it's a real good core group. Knock on wood.
SpikeHyzer
July 22, 2023 at 12:46 pm
Yes, but to say that the VERY BEST defender on the team is top 10 is ludicrous.
He's number one.
Period.
The writer is awful.
13TimeChamps
July 11, 2023 at 03:22 pm
So, for a "just ok" edge defender who "wasn't worth the 1st round pick that GB used on him"...we should recoup a 1st rounder "at least" in a trade.
Gotta love armchair GM's.
SpikeHyzer
July 13, 2023 at 04:42 pm
Just OK? Top 3 in the league in the two most important stats at his position (advanced stats, win rate and pressures).
Leatherhead
July 13, 2023 at 05:46 pm
Spike. He's kind of agreeing with you. He's pointing out the illogic of saying we can trade a guy who is "just OK" for a first round draft choice. I mean, he's either good enough that you'd give up a first round pick in the draft to get him, or he's "just OK". I mean, one or the other, please. You can't be on both sides of that at the same time.
If I were a GM of a team and could get Rashan Gary for a pick after about #10 in the draft, I'd lean into that and I'd pay the money for it. He's going to be a good player for several years and it might as well be for us. If I was the GM of a team that already had Rashan Gary, I'd add Enagbare and Van Ness and I'd be grinning like a stoned chimpanzee.
WestCoastPackerBacker
July 11, 2023 at 03:28 pm
You have to pay for talent, or you just let the guy go and make your opponents better. You're talking about two guys who were the best at two of the most important positions on the field, QB and LT. Of course you pay them what they are worth; they are very difficult to replace. They don't come along very often. GB has done such a poor job of drafting rushers, their best recent pass rushing group was expensive free agents, the Smith Bros. You want to go cheap? The best pass rushers are generally at the top of the draft. You want a crappy defense? Let one of your most talented players go, at one of the most important positions on the field. Then try to draft and develop another one, because free agent pass rushers are not cheap.
WestCoastPackerBacker
July 11, 2023 at 03:34 pm
I think is is BS to say he's not good as a run defender. From a Sports Illustrated article:
"He started the (22) season with a sack in each of the first four games for a total of five, and he had six sacks before the injury, well on his way to surpassing his career high of 9.5 set in 2021.According to ESPN’s pass rush and run stop win rate, there’s only one edge defender in the top 10 of both metrics.
It’s Gary."
So you save money for what? For a defense lacking in pass rush, just as Preston Smith is likely aging out of the role, along with the cost of retaining him. Then who do you have as a pass rush rotation? A bunch of nobodies at one of the most important positions on the field.
DoubleJ
July 12, 2023 at 07:13 am
Do you not remember how after Gary went down last year that pass rush was almost non existent? When healthy, he is one of the best edge defenders in the league.
dobber
July 12, 2023 at 09:50 am
"He is not worth 25 million dollars a year as some analysts have stated. "
He's unlikely to earn that on an annual basis on a new deal. His yearly cap hits are likely to be well below his AAV early on. NFL deals are more about guaranteed/bonus money than they are about cash value and AAVs. Don't be suckered in by AAVs.
"If Gary is able to play well this coming season, trade him. . . for a first rounder at least."
Any GM who would give away Rashan Gary under those circumstances should be fired.
"But the Packers, as usual, will shell out far too much money. . . as they did with Rodgers and Bakhtiari."
Rodgers and Bakhtiari were steals at comparable ages and contract numbers. Don't compare the late-career, "must be in the conversation as highest paid player in football" Aaron Rodgers, or the covid cap impacted Bakhtiari with Gary. The situations are not at all similar.
egbertsouse
July 11, 2023 at 02:59 pm
I don’t get this obsession with Gary. He’s a decent player but he has limitations. He’s a pass rusher who sells out the run to get sacks. He plays really hard on a lot of plays but takes other plays off. He gets dinged up on a regular basis and I have seen him waving his arms at the sidelines wanting to be taken out on numerous occasions. And now he’s coming off major knee reconstruction. Why would they want to extend him to a long-term, $20+ million per year deal at this point?
Leatherhead
July 11, 2023 at 03:14 pm
According to Spotrac, only about 6 Edge guys make over $20 million/year.
Gary is ranked #25 at a little under $11 million this year. Some of the guys higher on the list are familiar names, and others not so much, but the bottom line is you pay for pressure, and guys who can bring it are highly valued, and Gary can generate it. That's his value, whether it's to us or somebody else.
He's young enough that he could have several good seasons yet....let's see how he comes back this year before we talk about extensions. If he's fit to play, I'd like to see us keep a guy like this if it's possible.
WestCoastPackerBacker
July 11, 2023 at 03:31 pm
How do you suggest replacing his production? He most certainly impacts games. He was a monster at the beginning of the 22 season. And it is total BS that he can't stop the run. From a Sports Illustrated article:
He started the season with a sack in each of the first four games for a total of five, and he had six sacks before the injury, well on his way to surpassing his career high of 9.5 set in 2021.
According to ESPN’s pass rush and run stop win rate, there’s only one edge defender in the top 10 of both metrics.
It’s Gary.
SpikeHyzer
July 13, 2023 at 04:45 pm
And PFF had him top 3 in both pass rush win percentage and pressures.
fireball
July 12, 2023 at 12:08 pm
I'm with you, Egbert. Garys okay, but he does have " limitations " as you say. I'm just saying he ain't worth no twenty or twenty-five million a year.
WD
July 12, 2023 at 01:42 pm
"decent pass rusher?" He is our BEST pass rusher. Moreover he is young and still developing.
Packer_Fan
July 11, 2023 at 05:52 pm
Good idea to sign Runyan and Gary to long term contracts. But for the future and not for extra money this year.
The only reason to have extra money this year is if the Packers are making a run at the playoffs. Then it makes sense. But until Gary returns and proves he is back to his old self there is no need to extend him.
Nijman is an interesting choice. I assume they will release Bak next year and will need to draft a left OT. Nijman might be a nice security blanket until the draft choice delivers.
Leatherhead
July 11, 2023 at 06:11 pm
I'd say Nijman is a pretty good security blanket at LT, and quite probably he'll be needed.
Bakhtiari, 17 games, short weeks, etc., you need a guy there taking reps in practice for the first team, and Nijman could do that. That would mean starting Tom at RT, and the first injury would put.........?.......on the field.
Newman? Hanson? Rhyan? The only thing that makes sense to me is that they're thinking that Jones or Walker is going to be ready to this year.
mrtundra
July 12, 2023 at 07:24 am
I can see Tom as our starting Center. That would eliminate him at the RT spot. Joey Meyers has to step up at Center, or I feel Tom gets the nod, there. Jones and Walker will have to step up if Nijman has to replace Bakhtiari, for any amount of time. Nijman has earned the starting job at either LT or RT, IMO. I'd leave Runyan at RG and not move him around. The OL UDFAs we got, post draft, in Telfort, Filiaga and Moore may show something in camp, as well. If not, I think Caleb Jones and Rasheed Walker have to step up. All that occurs, if and when, Bakhtiari or Nijman gets injured.
dobber
July 12, 2023 at 09:53 am
"Joey Meyers has to step up at Center"
Yeah, he certainly couldn't hack it as a 1B for the Brewers in the 80s...but it's nice to see him make a run at it in football.
Leatherhead
July 12, 2023 at 09:57 am
I coached his brother, Oscar. (not really)
greengold
July 12, 2023 at 02:02 pm
Dude is such a dog.
Leatherhead
July 12, 2023 at 10:08 am
I can see lots of things and Tom figures in all of them because of his versatility. We have six legit starters, and the odds of having at least 5 of them healthy for 17 games isn't terrible, but the odds of having the same 5 are terrible. Guys get hurt, and whatever plan we have is going to depend on who and when.
In an ideal world, I would use Bakhtiari and Nijman at LT and start Tom at RT, and play Jenkins-Myers-Runyan across the middle. First injury puts somebody on the field that I'm not very confident of .
Oppy
July 11, 2023 at 06:02 pm
The only question mark on Gary is if he'll fully recover from injury.
Any talk about Gary not having heart, taking plays off, or not playing the run are a matter of people clinging to the pre and post draft hate train on Gary, as opposed to watching him play as a pro and listening to accounts from his team mates, positional coaches, and HC.
He's a fine football player. Will he be the same guy after he recovers, that is the only real question.
mrtundra
July 12, 2023 at 07:28 am
Gary is optimistic about his return from his injury. So am I.
dobber
July 12, 2023 at 10:04 am
My understanding was that he was getting regular work in the rehab group at OTAs and minicamp, so that bodes well for his being available sooner rather than later.
That said, whenever he sees the field, I think the Packers will put him on a pitch count for the first 4 games or so. It might be week 1...it might be week 8. Either way, it's less than a year returning to play which is a pretty good turnaround.
greengold
July 12, 2023 at 08:03 am
Hit the nail on the head, Oppy.
With the truly high amount of $$$ being discussed, I do think Gary finds himself in a bit of a prove it year, for no other reason than the severity of an ACL injury to a player who relies heavily on speed & torque for peak performance.
I do have questions on run stop win rate stats, and the discrepancies give a measure of pause.
Leatherhead
July 12, 2023 at 09:00 am
The truly high amounts being discussed......most OLB/EDGE guys are making under $20 million/year. Most of the best ones are somewhere between $11 and $20 million. If he's good enough to be a starter, then that's what he's worth. He's the only Dlineman being paid....all the rest are on rookie deals
Run stop win rates? On a defense that isn't interested in stuffing the run on first down? Doesn't seem like a very astute analysis, IMO.
greengold
July 12, 2023 at 01:12 pm
What do you got goin' here? A cage match?
WOW. Hey, no one knows how well Gary will have healed, nor how long that will take. No one knows if nor when he might be able to return to the top form he previously played with, nor if he will at all.
Like everyone else, I'm encouraged by what we've heard on his progress.
Sorry, but our run D has been abysmal throughout the last decade, and Rashan carried a 67 .1 Run D grade from PFF in 2022, and a 68.9 in 2021. 61.0 in 2020. 65.7 in 2019. Since none of them seem to correlate with what ESPN is touting, that's a discrepancy.
Maxx Crosby had an 82.5 last season. Nick Bosa 81.1.
When was it announced the Packers D "isn't interested in stuffing the run on first down?"
Hey man, I'm not saying I don't want Gary on this team. I'm not saying that this is a good scenario for Rashan Gary, coming off an ACL prior to a contract year. That has to suck for him. Just calling it like I see it. While the Packers are known to announce big $$$ extensions prior to Day 1 of TC, I'm questioning whether that happens. Simple. I'll add, I'm inclined to think they do follow form and give him his extension prior to the opening of TC, but, who knows?
His pass rush is valuable, without question. Run stop should improve with better players around him as well.
We'll see.
No big thing, really. Just a lot of unknowns at this point, and while I think they probably sign him soon, it might be too early for them to commit, somewhere like 7 months out of surgery?
By the way, Myles Garrett's cap number for 2023 is over $29M, $32M in 2024. Crosby's at $13M this year and balloons upwards to $24M, $27M and $27M 2024-2026. Wouldn't be surprised if Gary's deal takes a while longer. He's not going to take anything less than his best deal. I'd say market value for him will wind up being well over $20M. Doesn't hurt the Packers to wait it out a bit, IMO.
Hurra la Nacho Libre! Viva la Nacho Libre!
(PS. saw a Flying Elbow Drop rear windshield wiper cover & decal set-up the other morning and couldn't stop laughing).
dobber
July 12, 2023 at 09:29 am
An ACL tear with little additional damage is more of a speed bump than a career-deadening injury these days. The severity of the injury is important, and the Packers have way more information on that than any of the rest of us. Certainly just in the last year we saw rapid returns to action from Jenkins and Tonyan. The Bakhtiaris tend to be much more exception than rule on ACL injuries...and his injury wasn't simple.
greengold
July 12, 2023 at 01:29 pm
Exactly. None of us knows, but, yeah, I'm encouraged. We all know Gary too, and he's doing all he can to be out there playing again Game 1. The Packers might want to save him from himself there, and take a more conservative approach to his timetable for return.
It's anybody's guess, really.
stockholder
July 12, 2023 at 10:32 am
I'd extend Gary Now. - DON"T WAIT.
We know he can play. He's young.
He will only cost more later. If they don't.
There are No guarantees even with his next contract.
He could still get hurt. Big mistake waiting.
Gutey will protect him No matter what.
Sign him now.
PackAttackJack
July 12, 2023 at 01:00 pm
I find it scary that I actually agree with you...
Oppy
July 12, 2023 at 04:39 pm
I have little concerns about him not being signed before end of the season.
Having paid attention to the Packers for the last few decades, I'm assuming Gary has a contract signed before week 8 of the regular season.
Lphill
July 12, 2023 at 11:41 am
Brock Purdy proved last year you don't need a veteran QB backup, if the coaching is solid so is the play they proved.
dobber
July 12, 2023 at 12:37 pm
If you're going into the season with that thinking and not that the Brock Purdy situation is an outlier, you'll get what you're asking for.
TarynsEyes
July 12, 2023 at 02:40 pm
The Purdy success has to be looked at as an outlier, but that success was more than overpaid backup QB's usually supply. So, I'm fine with having Clifford as the backup to Love this season, not that it will matter greatly this season.
Leatherhead
July 12, 2023 at 04:20 pm
Because we can compete in the division with Clifford as our QB, right?
greengold
July 12, 2023 at 06:03 pm
Maybe. Maybe not. I only care that Gutekunst, LaFleur, Clements & Steno make their best decisions at every position on O. If they deem one of the younger QBs to be the best option, fine. If problems present in TC, they should be able to add a veteran. Sometimes there’s more value in not having to unteach… and, it sure looked as if they really wanted Clements.
Only 2 or 3 backups have ultimately won the prize in recent history (??? saying that very loosely) and Foles, Hostetler and Plunket are outliers. All of them. Brady? The ultimate outlier. 3 of those 4 outliers drafted by the team they won Super Bowls with.
Btw, “The Outliers,” is a phenomenal book if anyone is interested.
LaFleur & his staff have everything to prove these next couple years. This season of low expectations carries with it some high expectations, let me tell you!!!
Lol
Backup QB is important, but I’m sure we’re all hopeful Jordan Love makes it a non-issue. Most importantly, it’s proving time for LaFleur & Co.
Leatherhead
July 12, 2023 at 06:51 pm
It's not about winning the ultimate prize, it's about putting a team on the field that doesn't embarass you. It's unfair to the other guys on the team to just say "Oh well, it doesn't matter, we'll just put this Day 3 rookie in if Love gets hurt, a little or a lot". If your plan was to play a rookie at backup, you should have taken one higher in the draft. If your plan was to draft a rookie on Day 3, let him develop for a year, and find a vet to be our backup, it's right on track.
I'm sure we all remember the Gumchewer? We'd been preparing him for years, and when we needed a guy who could play well enough for us to win....it wasn't him. We've been very fortunate in Green Bay for 30 years, but QBs do get injured and when they do, you have to have somebody who's prepared to take over and run a pro offense in a game. We don't have that guy, and I think we should get that guy.
We're spending about $200,000,000, but we don't want to spend another $2 million on a veteran who has actually won games?
greengold
July 13, 2023 at 02:14 am
“We don’t have that guy?” Get down with your funky self.
The $2M veteran winning QB is a winner too. What’s next? “Try the veal?”
(wink)
I mean, seriously… How do you say we’re two weeks away from the start of TC without saying, “we’re two weeks away from the start of TC?”
Allen Iverson vibes.
TarynsEyes
July 12, 2023 at 06:52 pm
This team is already going to be hard-pressed to compete in the Division. IIRC, you often speak to Love being better than Rodgers' three seasons on the bench. Rodgers went 6-10 in 08, with a much more veteran team than Love has today. To think Love will win 10-or more games is ridiculous. He's more apt to struggle to get 6, and that would be enough to maybe sign him before he's a FA after 2024, depending on his totality of play in a hard-pressed season, as Rodgers obviously did in his 1st year as the starter. We saw his future, Love needs to show us his. This cannot be a season for backup glory, Love needs to get this season done, and standing on the field for the last snap. No backup is winning this Division for GB
Leatherhead
July 13, 2023 at 01:36 pm
I'm going to hold you to this, Taryn. And I'm going to remind you of it.
""" To think Love will win 10-or more games is ridiculous""
TarynsEyes
July 13, 2023 at 01:45 pm
That's fine. I'll be here. Will you acknowledge it when he doesn't?
Leatherhead
July 13, 2023 at 02:39 pm
I'll be here too. We're going to be a lot better on offense this year. Watson will be better. Doubs will be better. Musgrave, Kraft, and Reed are going to help. Our line is better.
If Love is as good as Rodgers was last year....the worst of his career....then we'll clearly be better. It's not ridiculous.
Swisch
July 12, 2023 at 09:49 pm
Rookies like Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud actually start for some teams, so maybe it wouldn't be the end of the world if we had to go with Clifford.
Any young quarterback is a question mark -- especially as a rookie -- though I agree some more than others.
Clifford does have a lot of experience coming in from college, and it's up to the coaches to decide by the end of training camp if he'd be up to the challenge -- as at least an approximation of Purdy -- if forced into play this season.
As noted by Taryn, there are no guarantees with veterans as backup QBs, either.
Leatherhead
July 13, 2023 at 06:05 pm
Yes, but QBs that can come in and start for you as rookies get taken in the first round, usually early in the first round. Sometimes one is available on the second day, but those are very rare.
I like Clifford as our backup QB....next year. Consider this: In the last 30 years...we haven't started very many seasons with a rookie as the backup. 2008. Maybe 2005. But not very many. Usually we had guys like Pederson and Hasselbeck and Hundley , who you could at least put on the field without embarassing yourself (although Hundley was close, IMO).
This organization does not go into the season with the plan of "We'll wait until the 5th round and then draft our backup QB". I'd be really surprised if the same organization that kept Love inactive his entire rookie season would then give the 2nd set of keys to a Day 3 rookie.
PatrickGB
July 12, 2023 at 02:08 pm
While I enjoy the discussion on Gary, I am a tad disappointed that not much was revealed on the topic of salary cap alone.
Tekraut17
July 13, 2023 at 09:48 am
I'm not sure why you'd want to kick the can on $'s this year when you already know it's a rebuild. Yes if Love performs then we could be in the running for a playoff spot but I'd rather see us try to dig out of this cap hell by letting younger players get some reps. At least that way you see what you have and then next year with our draft capital and more wiggle room we can get back to GB football!!
PatrickGB
July 13, 2023 at 01:21 pm
Amen.