First Round Sets Up For Defensive Pick
Offensively top heavy draft will push defensive prospects down to Pack.
By KenLass
Okay, let’s get real. None of us knows anything when it comes to the NFL draft. Some of us think we do. That’s what makes it fun and exciting. Draft week is finally here. Trying to guess who the Packers will take in the first round is folly, especially when you have the unpredictable Brian Gutekunst making the selection. But using the collective insight (???) of the mock draft gurus, maybe we can make some general assumptions and narrow it down to a handful of players.
One thing we can all agree on is that this draft is extremely top heavy with offensive players, beginning with a likely run of four straight quarterbacks at the top. No more than one or two defensive guys are likely to go in the top ten. It’s looking like picks 11 through 20 will be about a 50-50 mix of offense and defense. This means that only around five or six defensive prospects will be gone through the top 20. Every time an offensive player is picked, another quality defensive guy slides down closer to the Packers.
That brings us to what I believe is the Packers’ target zone, the early 20’s. If Gutekunst has somebody he really wants, this is where he’s going to go to get him. The value here will be on defense. In fact, it’s possible not a single defensive lineman will have been taken in the top 20. That is both exciting and suspicious. For example, Alabama’s Christian Barmore seems to be sliding down draft lists of late. Once regarded as a top 12 prospect, a recent draft preview article on packersnews.com suggested he may now be available at 29, or even slide to the second round. While I believe getting Barmore would be a home run, I wonder if he might be Montravious Adams all over again.
Michigan’s Kwity Paye may also slide down to that range. He would seem to be an incredible value in the 20’s. Versatile and athletic enough to play inside or edge. Here again, early mocks had him going much higher, but later versions have him drifting down.
The top two corners, Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II and Jaycee Horn out of South Carolina, are probably gone earlier. The next two prospects, Caleb Farley out of Virginia Tech, and Greg Newsome II, who played at Northwestern, may both be good enough to start immediately at the next level. Farley has had two back surgeries which may scare him out of the first round. There should also be versatile TCU safety Trevon Moehrig still available. A great leader who plays smart and fast, Moehrig would be an excellent addition when the Packers’ defense goes to multiple defensive backs, which is often.
My personal draft crush is Tulsa’s Zaven Collins. A unanimous first team All American and winner of the Bronco Nagurski and Chuck Bednarik awards, Collins would immediately upgrade the inside linebacker position, and could even move outside as an extra edge rusher if needed. He’s not the lighter, speedier linebacker many teams are trending toward, but at 265, he is amazingly fast for that weight, crushes ball carriers, and rushes the passer with a savage intensity. I want him. And he should be there in the 20’s. But we all know how the Packers seem to value the ILB position, so I’m not getting my hopes up.
Some think edge rusher is a sneaky need for Green Bay. Georgia’s Azeez Ojulari will still be on the board. Incredibly productive in the rugged Southeastern Conference, Ojulari racked up 12.5 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, four forced fumbles and two pass deflections. If it’s true you can never have too many good pass rushers, Azeez is the man.
Of course, it is possible Gutekunst will go offense in the first round. He needs a tackle and a center. But the value is not there. The top five tackles will be gone by pick 20. This draft is deep enough at tackle that a solid prospect can be had on day two. Alabama center Landon Dickerson will be there, but do you really want to use your first round selection on a center?
With other pressing needs, wouldn’t it be ironic if Gutekunst went receiver in round one this year? After everyone thought he would take one last year? Exciting pass catchers like Kadarius Toney out of Florida and Purdue’s Rondale Moore will be on the board. It would be fun watching Aaron Rodgers bond with those guys in this Matt LaFleur offense.
But the value when we get close to Green Bay being on the clock is going to be on the defensive side of the ball. So there you have it. Let the draft begin! My prediction is that the Packers’ first round pick will likely be a defensive player, and that it will come from a group that includes Christian Barmore, Kwity Paye, Caleb Farley, Greg Newsome II, Trevon Moehrig, Zaven Collins, and Azeez Ojulari.
How’s that for being wishy-washy?
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
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Comments (77)
stockholder
April 26, 2021 at 06:28 am
We know Newsome is the pick. Regardless of the cost. Regardless if he starts. Is he the right pick? No! But it is what it is.
Coldworld
April 26, 2021 at 06:47 am
I’d be happy with Newsome ... at 29. The idea of trading into the early twenties for anyone is too rich for my blood this year.
While few agree on whom we should pick, the many mock drafts here clearly illustrate that we can use all our picks this year. Moreover, we can add situational improvements and improve depth on all 3 days.
As to Barmore, I’ve been concerned that he is a trap pick who will struggle against the run against NFL O lines early until he adds strength. If there are legitimate questions about his motivation/willingness to take coaching then the name that came to mind is not Adams but Cletidus Hunt. Run Gutey run.
dobber
April 26, 2021 at 07:19 am
"I’ve been concerned that he is a trap pick who will struggle against the run against NFL O lines early until he adds strength."
There are few college linemen on either side of the ball who don't (according to scouting reports) need to get stronger to compete on an every-down basis in the NFL.
Coldworld
April 26, 2021 at 07:52 am
True, but I think that, in a normal year Barmore would go later because of it. I also think that much of the desire for him here is to help improve against the run. I don’t think he will this year, likely be closer to Keke last year. We don’t need that in round 1, this year in particular.
As to the rumors about his mentality, those have come later, after I formed that opinion. Shades of Cletedius Hunt still give me shivers if true.
stockholder
April 26, 2021 at 02:48 pm
I disagree. Barmore has great Tape. No one could stop him. Shouldn't lanCaster be All-pro since can lift more. The size of Barmore sets him apart. The game is different from college to the pros. Comparing any college player to a NFL veteran is character assignation. Are need is greater at the DL then CB. Kicking the can down the road hasn't worked for 10 years. We needed more then Raji. Just like we need more then Clark. The talk is Lowrey will be cut after June1. Taking a cb early when it's stacked is foolish. Taking a DL when the class gets weaker after the top100, is what has kept us from winning it all.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 06:26 pm
ILB
murf7777
April 26, 2021 at 09:33 am
I'm also concerned with Barmore, but it will be hard to pass up at pick 29. I'm not for quantity of picks. I'd prefer trying to get as many picks in the first 100 as possible. Trade out of the first into the top 5-7 picks of the 2nd and use your 4-7th rounders to trade up into rounds 2 and 3.
Every team has needs, but we are much closer than most, so if we can land 2 - 3 major contributors to this team I believe it will get us to the SB. We have a much better chance of a player being a major contributor in rounds 2 or 3 than thereafter.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 27, 2021 at 06:43 am
Trevon Moehrig is safe and there's a good chance of him being very good. He is a safety, so positional value is an issue for some.
dobber
April 26, 2021 at 07:24 am
If they deal up a bit and get Newsome and he turns out to be a blue-chip, he's worth the investment.
Hell, if they deal up a bit and get a guy at any one of a number of positions (DL, OT, CB) and that guy turns out to be a blue-chip...who would bitch?
"We know Newsome is the pick."
If there's anything the draft under BG has taught us, it's that we don't have any idea what he's going to do.
Coldworld
April 26, 2021 at 07:56 am
Even if Gute was Mr. Predictable and never traded, there would be 28 others who get to pull the unexpected first. Part of the fun of the draft.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 06:24 pm
Thank you, Carnac ! Unfortunately, You are probably correct.
Handsback
April 26, 2021 at 07:39 am
Does Newsome’s injury history bother anyone?
Razer
April 26, 2021 at 07:56 am
The Packers need to take heed on that injury history. It is real and it will show up early and often when these CBs are asked to handle big WRs and big RBs every game. We only have to look at Kevin King to know the risks
Coldworld
April 26, 2021 at 08:08 am
None of them seem of a type that would suggest a likelihood of increasing susceptibility. It’s a factor in why he might be available.
Farley is a different question, one I don’t think a non medical person can speculate on.
It’s also worth noting that similar questions were raised about Alexander, who had issues throughout 2017.
dobber
April 26, 2021 at 08:14 am
Most players are "buyer beware" to some degree.
ImaPayne2
April 26, 2021 at 12:50 pm
\Injury history? You're talking injury history? Funny Gutt doesnt take that into account and for sure that bonehead Ted never did.
King, missed large parts of two seasons with shoulder injuries but we took him. He was there for the taking because 27 other teams passed on his health issues.
We took Sternberger who had multiple concussions and missed a lot of games but we took him and he misses a lot of games.
oceanstrength
April 26, 2021 at 07:40 am
Actually, far from being 'wishy washy', that was one of the best, most honest and sensible assessments I've read so far. You simplified and clarified at the same time. You also, picked 'your guy'. So that shows cojones.
Personally I'm a Jabril Cox fan for ILB. But I also think this is a sit tight and take the BPA at 29. Since there will be great future players on the board, all you have to do is get it right. Probabilities get better at 21, but getting it right trumps probability every day. So why not drop a few spots for an additional day two pick. That is playing probabilities too, and you still have to get it right.
Dragon5
April 26, 2021 at 09:09 am
I don't see all the hype over Jamin Davis...to me he & Jabril Cox are equals with Cox ADP much lower. Either one could replace Oren Burks in a blink. My pref for ILB is Nick Bolton. Zaven Collins shows well, but he, like Owusu Koramoah, are injury prone 7LPs, buyer beware.
murf7777
April 26, 2021 at 09:44 am
I would like Davis or Cox at pick 62. Jamin with Jamin, i like the sound of that. I've watched film on both and either player are the type where the position is heading. I'm not so sure about Collins, yes he is very athletic, but is he an edge or ilb? Versatility is great, but I want my ILB to be versatile in pass coverage. My concern with Collins is his weight, is he quick twich enough to cover RB, slot WR and TE?
murf7777
April 26, 2021 at 10:31 am
Davis or Cox looks good in the second, but the one I think is going to excell is Owusu-Koramoah, if he were to fall to the 29th I wouldn't walk, but run to the podium with him. All you have to do is watch tape of him against Clemson and you will see what I mean. He had 9 tackles, 1/2 sack (at the end of game when needed) 2 FF and one for a TD.
He can cover RB, WR, TE and is explosive in the backfield. Also, impressed with the way he disengages from TE blocks to make tackles. He holds the edge and still has the motor to get inside if the RB cuts there. He is similar size and a better version of Queen who struggles tackling and disengaging.
He can play the "star" position and excell at it. Very versatile can play slot in a pinch.
blondy45
April 26, 2021 at 07:49 am
No need to trade up. Nobody knows who will fall to 29, but with all the offensive players being taken earlier, good defensive players will fall. It has been stated that the early 20's is where Gute will want to trade up to. IMO it is far too costly to trade up this year. The players available 21-25 are very much of equal value and too expensive acquire. The three picks 26 -28 will have players the Pack would love to have, but again at a cost the Packers can afford to hold their water and wait. Let the draft come to Gute for a change. If Barmore falls to 29, WOW (will not happen)!
My first round hopeful players that are at 29 are: Caleb Farley, Trevon Moehrig, ZAVEN COLLINS, and Jayson Owen. Any of these 4 prospects would be a great addition and should contribute early for the Pack. In a trade back, I see only Jaguars, Jets, Falcon, or Cowboys being viable trade partners. Pick at 29, be happy, get ready for what the draft brings at 62, and trust in Gute.
dobber
April 26, 2021 at 08:13 am
I think Dallas will be active, but the question is: do you want to go all the way back to pick 44?
flackcatcher
April 26, 2021 at 08:20 am
It all depends on if Dallas can keep the elder Jones out of the draft room. Good luck with that...
Coldworld
April 26, 2021 at 08:41 am
He is probably the one we’d need pushing to jump up. I think Dallas (Jerry) may look to move from 10 though.
Coldworld
April 26, 2021 at 08:38 am
Interesting one. 29 to 44 is a big gap. Would command a steep price. I’m not interested in picks for next year in current circumstances. Do they have the draft capital?
After the 10th, they have
Round 2: No. 44
Round 3: No. 75, No. 99
Round 4: No. 115, No. 138
Round 5: No. 179
Would we give up 15 places for a higher 2nd and a 3rd and would that appeal and that may be too rich for them. Their second 3rd is really a 3 1/2. Anything less than their 2nd and 3rd and I wouldn’t touch it. Which may be why Dallas wouldn’t either.
blondy45
April 26, 2021 at 12:26 pm
1. Jets 34 (2) + 107 (4) for 29 EVEN
2. Falcons 35 (2) + 108 (4) for 29 Pack -12
3. Falcons 35 (2) + 108 (4) +187 (6) for 29 Pack +3
4. Jaguars 33 (2) + 130 (4) for 29 Pack -18
5. Jaguars 33 (2) + 106 (4) (first pick day3) for 29 Pack +2
5. Cowboys 44 (2) + 75 (3) for 29 Pack +25
I like the Jets trade to be the most realistic. The question is would they? If future year's picks are included, I have no way to figure that out, a different ball of wax. I see the Pack staying at 29.
murf7777
April 26, 2021 at 10:01 am
Regarding Dallas if they trade their 2nd and 3rd it is a deal for the packers, if they add the 99th pick it would be a steal.
Using the draft pick numbers from PFR. Packers 29th pick is worth 620pts. The cowboys 44th and 75th are worth 675pts, if you add in the 99th they are worth 779 pts. Cowboys would have to be crazy to do even #1 much less #2.
I think a good trade for GB is 29th for Cowboys 44th and 75th.
blondy45
April 26, 2021 at 12:10 pm
A Packer +25 point value according to the NFL trade value chart I follow.
Pack 29 = 640.
Dallas 44 = 460 + 75 =215 for a total of 675.
This is do able for both teams, but I am not sure a wait until 44 and only gaining a late #3 is worth it for the Pack. I still say stay @ 29 & get that value pick for whomever drops unexpectedly. Trade after round one when it will be less expensive to move around.
My previous draft calculations were wrong. I revised them to the correct values in my post above this one. Sorry about that.
justjan
April 26, 2021 at 08:45 am
Too far back.
murf7777
April 26, 2021 at 09:46 am
Dobber, I think that is too far, unless they would give up the 3rd rounder as well.
stockholder
April 26, 2021 at 10:19 am
the late 40s should be your 2nd player taken.
Razer
April 26, 2021 at 08:13 am
Just hoping that we don't end up with a team of TEs, FB and late round D-linemen. Beyond that, farm the 2-4 rounds for your talent. Fingers crossed that draft falls to us in a favourable fashion.
flackcatcher
April 26, 2021 at 08:24 am
I like FB, besides Lafleur can never have enough F-Backs (as he calls the position) in his scheme. (And if you think I'm kidding, just remember the last eight minutes of the NFCC game)
Lphill
April 26, 2021 at 08:49 am
The Bears, Vikings and Steelers will take a player on the Packers wish list.
murf7777
April 26, 2021 at 09:49 am
You're so right as they will all probably take Defense. Although, It wouldn't surprise me if the Bears try trading up if one of the QB's drop out of the top 10. Maybe one of the top Tackles will drop in our lap.
stockholder
April 26, 2021 at 10:13 am
Yep- keep your opponent from getting what they need/better ---- regardless.
dobber
April 26, 2021 at 10:18 am
The Bears and Vikings are far enough up the list that they don't have to worry about what the Packers want.
stockholder
April 26, 2021 at 10:23 am
4th rd. The vikings pick in front. If you look at a player to fall /Need, they will grab him. The opt out has changed where players are taken. And you also have some underclassmen.
dobber
April 26, 2021 at 10:30 am
The tiers are broad enough--and the price to jump ahead a couple picks is low enough--that I don't think this is a concern.
stockholder
April 26, 2021 at 10:46 am
No team is going to help us win a Super-Bowl.
Coldworld
April 26, 2021 at 12:44 pm
On purpose anyway
dobber
April 26, 2021 at 02:10 pm
They don't view it that way...they view it as getting capital they want.
Since'61
April 26, 2021 at 09:12 am
Given the way some of the prospects discussed in the article are falling in the mocks that would be a justification for either staying at 29 or trading back into the 2nd round. Let the draft comes to us and if possible get as many picks as possible in rounds 2-4.
Fill out the the roster with solid picks rather than giving picks away for a hoped for home run that doesn't meet up with expectations. At the worst stay at 29 and take the BPA whether it's a CB, WR or DL. I think this draft will have plenty of teams moving around and the Packers board may be significantly different by the time they pick at #29. Let it play out and reset the board for Day 2 hopefully with an extra pick or 2 after trading back.
Thanks, Since '61
stockholder
April 26, 2021 at 10:01 am
I believe your a 100 % right. I favor the trade down. I can see taking a CB, Wr, DL. then. But to go after a player; when this draft so loaded at that position. I must say it is the wrong move. That a GM can be to focused on putting all his eggs in one basket. And the objective should be to win a super-bowl. And not to replace anyone. Replacing is sabatoge. It's been 10 years since we've won the super-bowl. Management has lived on the shirt tales of Rodgers. But unlike Dan Morino, at least Rodgers has one super-Bowl win.
dobber
April 26, 2021 at 10:21 am
"Given the way some of the prospects discussed in the article are falling in the mocks"
It's a good thing all these NFL front-office types have been sharing with the draftniks exactly what they plan to do so that we can have the most accurate assessment of how the draft will go...
;)
BruceIrons
April 26, 2021 at 09:53 am
Really hoping to see defense addressed first - cornerback and line need the most help. If it's offense, tackle is the only immediate need. These were the positions that kept them out of the Super Bowl last year.
I trust the team to not reach for need, so if they come away with one of these positions, I'll assume they thought it was good value at a position of need, which is the best we can hope for.
dobber
April 26, 2021 at 10:29 am
With the money they've paid Bakhtiari, and their desire to play Turner on the outside in their preferred alignment last year, my contrarian view remains that they'll take a high-end, plug-and-play IOL (RG or C) early in the draft and a T later. If they get a high-end C, that frees up Jenkins to fill on the right side (with Turner on the left) until Bakh comes back, and they solidify the C position for the next 10 years. Just a thought...
splitpea1
April 26, 2021 at 11:18 am
You just have a fetish for offensive linemen.... I surely hope they're more interested in solidifying the CB, DL, and OT positions for the next 5 years. Don't we already have enough options/prospects on the IOL that we don't have to select one early?
dobber
April 26, 2021 at 12:11 pm
I think that IOL guy is round 2, and they might deal up to get him. I think they get a CB or DL in round 1.
I'm more of a 5-tech kind of guy.
splitpea1
April 26, 2021 at 12:58 pm
In my own garden-variety fan opinion, IOL and TE/H-back are by far the areas of least concern. Staying with the offensive side of the ball, a slot WR type might be something Gute would entertain in Round 2 if the right one was available. And later on, maybe a shifty RB. Of course I wouldn't be surprised at anything Gute does, but logic indicates that he should be mainly looking BPAs outside the IOL and TE group. Then again, since he brought back virtually the same defense from last season, he might (wrongfully) feel he has the flexibility to delve into all offensive areas.
dobber
April 26, 2021 at 02:16 pm
I see IOL in this way: they have exactly 2 proven players to cover 3 positions, and one of them (Patrick) is a borderline starter quality player. Sure, they drafted guys late there last year, but one couldn't make the 53, another was hurt until late November, and the third was OK as a spot starter. Don't get me wrong: I'm bullish on Stepaniak and I like his chances if his knee is sound (he hasn't played a down, yet). Otherwise, I think there's tremendous room to upgrade those spots, especially given they have virtually no contract obligations there.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:31 pm
He could get one of the high-rated guards if they fall in the second and let Patrick try to cover the center spot.
Irish_Cheesehead
April 26, 2021 at 10:32 am
I just know I'm going to stay up past midnight and Gute is going to trade the pick.
PeteK
April 26, 2021 at 04:51 pm
I just want very good prospects at CB and T in first two rounds. The RT position worries me until Bak comes back because our O is the heart of this team ,and it all starts with the line. A move up in the 2nd round to get a T or CB could get us a solid starter. DT, Tufele is a player that could help us, please be there in the 3rd round. After that WR, ILB. However, Ken you're correct, it's all enjoyable folly. Just get players that will play, contribute, and develop.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:33 pm
DTs in the fourth. I would still move up for two in the first rd. They can play pack the roster in 2022 with the comp picks.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:39 pm
*
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:42 pm
*
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:43 pm
*
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:44 pm
wtf
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:44 pm
this is getting ridiculous.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:33 pm
DTs in the fourth. I would still move up for two in the first rd. They can play pack the roster in 2022 with the comp picks.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:34 pm
DTs in the fourth. I would still move up for two in the first rd. They can play pack the roster in 2022 with the comp picks.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:34 pm
DTs in the fourth. I would still move up for two in the first rd. They can play pack the roster in 2022 with the comp picks.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:34 pm
DTs in the fourth. I would still move up for two in the first rd. They can play pack the roster in 2022 with the comp picks.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:34 pm
DTs in the fourth. I would still move up for two in the first rd. They can play pack the roster in 2022 with the comp picks.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:34 pm
DTs in the fourth. I would still move up for two in the first rd. They can play pack the roster in 2022 with the comp picks.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:34 pm
DTs in the fourth. I would still move up for two in the first rd. They can play pack the roster in 2022 with the comp picks.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:34 pm
DTs in the fourth. I would still move up for two in the first rd. They can play pack the roster in 2022 with the comp picks.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:34 pm
DTs in the fourth. I would still move up for two in the first rd. They can play pack the roster in 2022 with the comp picks.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:34 pm
DTs in the fourth. I would still move up for two in the first rd. They can play pack the roster in 2022 with the comp picks.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:34 pm
DTs in the fourth. I would still move up for two in the first rd. They can play pack the roster in 2022 with the comp picks.
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:38 pm
*
jannesbjornson
April 26, 2021 at 07:37 pm
DTs in the fourth round. Move up for two picks in the first rd and gain the five year options. Use the 2022 draft to stack the roster and the comp pick for Lindsley.
PatrickGB
April 26, 2021 at 11:36 am
I think it depends more on who falls rather than what position falls in the first two rounds. But if players on defense are the real value, then I can see them being selected early by the Packers. But if a great tackle falls then he could be number one. As the article states, it’s all dependent on who the other teams select.
flackcatcher
April 26, 2021 at 12:11 pm
It's draft night, and we all know how this plays. QB, OL, and BPA. Should leave the Packers several options on their draft board. Now what are their needs, and who is up on their board, only the front office and Gute knows for sure. Unless some owners goes completely nuts, the Packers should have a nice draft. And then comes FA, which this front office loves. One thing I know, is Gutekunst will pull a surprise of two that no one saw coming. Thursday night will be interesting.
Packers0808
April 26, 2021 at 12:38 pm
Pick best person available except RB and QB! Those seem to be pretty air tight1 Everyone makes this whole thing to complicated!
HankScorpio
April 26, 2021 at 05:51 pm
"That brings us to what I believe is the Packers’ target zone, the early 20’s. If Gutekunst has somebody he really wants, this is where he’s going to go to get him."
I hope to gawd Gute does not have a target zone. There is no greater sin as a drafter than losing patience before there is something tangible to be impatient about. A recurring pattern of giving up mid round picks is bad enough. If it is pre-determined, that's even worse.