Entering the Final Four Games, We Know Exactly Where the Packers Stand

The Green Bay Packers are 9-4 after 13 games. Based on the way they’ve played so far this season we know exactly where this team stands. The Packers are a talented team, but they are still a step behind the teams ahead of them in the standings in the NFC. That doesn’t mean they can’t play better and defeat any of them in a playoff game, but right now, the Packers are not as good as the other elite contenders in the conference.

The clearest proof of this is in head-to-head games. The Packers are 0-4 in games against the other top contenders in the NFC having lost to the Lions twice, the Vikings once and the Eagles once. All of those games were close with only the first meeting against Detroit being more than a one score game.

While most people were expecting the Packers to contend this season, they are still one of the youngest teams in the NFL. One of the big differences between the Lions and the Packers this past Thursday was the key plays. Detroit came up big on third and fourth down compared to the Packers. They are a bit more experienced than the Packers are and have learned how to win close games more consistently than Green Bay.

There are some other areas the Packers need to improve upon to get hot in January and win some playoff games.

One big problem remains the lack of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Jared Goff had far too much time to throw the football on Thursday and completed his last 13 passes including all of his attempts in the fourth quarter.

The front four has struggled to get to the quarterback and Jeff Hafley has often had to resort to blitzes to disrupt the passing game. Hafley tried some blitzes against Detroit but even then, they weren’t able to get much pressure. In the entire game, the Packers managed just one sack and three quarterback hits. Goff had time to go through his progressions and found his receivers for short but steady gains.

Players like Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark are playing a little better of late but are not as effective yet in the new 4-3 defense as they were in the three-man front that the team played a year ago.

Another key area that needs improvement is the pass defense. This is obviously related to the lack of pass rush. But a bigger problem here is the team’s lack of depth at cornerback. Jaire Alexander has played only 10 snaps since suffering a knee injury on the final play of the Packers win over Jacksonville. He’s appeared in only seven of the team’s 13 games and his status going forward is uncertain.

Without Alexander, the cornerback room takes a big hit. Eric Stokes has not approached the level of play he showed in his rookie season and seems to have lost speed and confidence due to his recent injuries. Keisean Nixon makes some big plays but also gets beaten too often. Carrington Valentine has also struggled with consistency when he’s been in the lineup. He is better suited to being a second or third corner but is not yet ready to be CB1.

Brian Gutekunst’s failure to upgrade the cornerback position this offseason may be the team’s ultimate undoing.

By the end of last Thursday’s game in Detroit, the Packers were also thin at safety with Evan Williams and Javon Bullard both leaving the game early due to injuries. Bullard plays slot so Nixon had to move back to the slot with Valentine and Stokes on the perimeter. It didn’t go well.

This team has already proven they can improve over the course of the season. Jordan Love has now gone three straight games without throwing an interception and has improved his decision making in recent games.

The red zone offense has also improved significantly since the team emphasized getting the ball to Josh Jacobs and Tucker Kraft more often.

The Packers have already proven they can play with any team in the NFL. After Thursday’s loss in Detroit, the team feels they can beat the Lions if they get them in a playoff rematch. Now they have to take the steps necessary to improve in these remaining areas. If they do, this team is capable of winning any game against any team they face. The question is whether they are ready to take that next step now or if they have to wait until next season.

 

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You can follow Gil Martin on Twitter @GilPackers

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Comments (34)

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Grand Mooster J's picture

December 07, 2024 at 10:19 am

Well argued Good Sir. Gracias. GPG! Sincerely, GMJ

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KenEllis's picture

December 09, 2024 at 10:09 pm

Key sentence in the article = "While most people were expecting the Packers to contend this season, they are still one of the youngest teams in the NFL."

Pack was youngest team last season and one of if not the youngest team this season.

If the goal is to be the youngest, the Pack has dominated the NFL in 2023 and 2024.

Maybe in 2025 the goal will change to getting to a Super Bowl for the first time in 15 seasons.

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jlc1's picture

December 07, 2024 at 10:30 am

The article assumes talent. I think the observations about the front four suggests otherwise in that area. These guys have been, recently, ok against the run although I think the Lions went over 100 against them. Now they can't get to the passer. The talent may not be there. Either that or the coaching but the front four is a big problem.

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Packman60's picture

December 08, 2024 at 10:21 am

The Packers have held two of the better run offenses to under 3.4 yards per carry in each of the past couple of games, which is a "winning"performance and while I agree the pass rush needs to be better, both the Lions and Dolphins were getting the ball out quickly with a high percentage of their passes being under 10 yards from the line of scrimmage.

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ricky's picture

December 07, 2024 at 11:36 am

This is a team that all too often lacks discipline. In the Lions game, the Packers radio team was commenting that the Lions seemed to be trying to bait the Packers into retaliating for being provoked after the play was over. And they did. How many times have we seen drives stalled at critical times by offside penalties? Way too often. The Packers are currently the sixth most penalized team in the league. You can blame this on the youth of the team, but in the final analysis, this comes down to coaching and lack of accountability. Gutekunst needs to get on top of this and LaFleur needs to take a hard look at himself and his staff, and both need to make some tough decisions.

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canadapacker's picture

December 07, 2024 at 12:09 pm

Over years under TT and now a little under Gute - GB has tried to upgrade the linebacker and the Dback position with relatively little success - one might argue Savage and Alexander - but still not world's best - for a first rounder - and when you add in the bad ones - Stokes - back to the Dix Randall of the previous administration - GB still hasnt hit on a worlds' best. The same at the linebacker/ Dline - other than Clark - and the trying to get a new type of linebacker in Walker isnt working out to date - fast but seeminly out of position too much. Hopefully he will develop and maybe some of that is because of coaching. Van Ness and Wyatt all have potential and if they dont develop I believe that we really need to take a look at who is coaching them and does it fit their talent. It seems that other teams such as the Lions and Vikings have the mentality of we are going to impose our will on the other team. What really impressed me about the Lions game was that we really hustled to the ball - Remember the old NO LOAFS mentality of the Bears Urlacher - that is what we had for periods Thursday. Our team is what it is - and as we have proven against the Cowboys last playoff - on any given game we can advance. I am hopeful for a rematch against any team other than Phillie - once we make the playoffs

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Coldworld's picture

December 07, 2024 at 01:37 pm

We have proved we can play with any team in the NFL? Really which ones? We just came off a week where a division rival humiliated our OL with 3rd and 4th stringers and made our D look like a sieve. We haven’t beaten any team with a leading record. We can play at being a pretender but we have just been manicured poseurs when the real teams come around. They say teams reflect their coaches. We need a new mirror or a new person to gaze into it.

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White92's picture

December 07, 2024 at 03:19 pm

Yep, I have to agree. Play with, not beat. The only time I can think of a LaFleur team really outperforming expectations was vs Dallas in the playoffs.

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canadapacker's picture

December 07, 2024 at 04:16 pm

As I said as I said above - we were supposedly a big underdog and going to get walked over by the Cowboys last years playoffs and we also had a pretty good chance against the 49ers except our inexperience of being in the playoffs let us down. Any given Sunday has got to be our mantra. I think that if our first opponent is anybody other than the Phillie team ( mostly because of Barkley) we will have a chance once again. We now have 4 games left to show our mettle and we really probably only need to win 2 to be assured of the playoffs and the only other team to get to 11 might be Washington. And we did beat Miami and Houston both are good teams when their QB's are healthy and we are not getting blown out - just too many bad mistakes ie penalties and drops plus that soft D when ahead. Now the Lions have won 2 games for sure that they should have lost - so they are not this great team . Same as KC

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dblbogey's picture

December 07, 2024 at 10:07 pm

We lost by 3 points to a 12-1 team. We're good, not great. Stokes problem I think is the injuries. It happens. We need a lot more talent on defense, hopefully free agency and the draft will help. Along the way, let's get rid of Myers at C and hope a healthy Jordan Morgan turns out to be a player.

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Bitternotsour's picture

December 10, 2024 at 09:28 am

Humiliated? they put 31 up on Detroit at their house. Coldworld, show us where the bad man hurt you.

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NFLfan's picture

December 07, 2024 at 01:58 pm

My guess is that the team will not advance to the next level, ie., Lion's, Chief's, Bill's level without a GM/HC change-sorry to say that as I am very fond of MLF.

-Also, it won't happen. GB moves at glacial speed

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TKWorldWide's picture

December 07, 2024 at 02:53 pm

Re: the GM/HC change:
Isn’t that the Chicago approach?

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Leatherhead's picture

December 07, 2024 at 03:13 pm

But there's no guarantee that we'll advance to the "next level" if we DO make the change. You seem to believe there's no downside to making changes, that there's no chance the change will make you worse.

So, an organization that has been one of the most successful in the league for over the last 30 years moves like a glacier. Maybe there's a lesson in that.

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Coldworld's picture

December 07, 2024 at 04:10 pm

There is always a potential for downside when making changes. There’s no guarantee of success. That’s why change should only come when the status quo is a dead end that won’t take you where you need to go. In this case, after 6 1/2 years, it’s time to accept that we have been running in circles, tripping on the same obstacles.

“It may be hard for an egg to turn into a bird: it would be a jolly sight harder for it to learn to fly while remaining an egg. We are like eggs at present. And you cannot go on indefinitely being just an ordinary, decent egg. We must be hatched or go bad.”

C.S. Lewis.

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dobber's picture

December 07, 2024 at 05:46 pm

Didn't the Bears can Lovie Smith after a 10-6 season where the Bears lost to the Packers twice? That seems to have worked out well...for the Packers.

When you're playing at or near the top of the league, there's a helluva lot more room to go down than up.

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the_gavia_pass's picture

December 08, 2024 at 04:11 am

exactly. gutekunst can't find real star. Ted Thompson got charles woodson, aaron rodgers, bj raij, clay matthews, jordy nelson, davante adams, julius peppers, bakthiari, corey linsley etc...he was way muche better than gutekunst. lafleur is a good coach but a little man. mccarthy in the first years was really fired up.
i always tought the problem was mark murphy. remember ted was from bob harlan tree.
murphy decisions were all quite bad.
now we have a new president and in a few months we will find out if he is in the harlan mode or murphy mode.
harlan wanted greatness and SB murphy is happy with just doing post season, SB is just an option.

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stockholder's picture

December 07, 2024 at 03:05 pm

Unless you're willing to blow the whole roster up.
You make do with the guys you have.
Calling to move on from Walker is ridicules.
The grass isn't greener on the other side!
No body has been more vocal about Gute's drafting
then me.
Don't blame MLF; when the players Gutekunst takes,
are more body builders, than gladiators.
Strength and honor, isn't how the packers were built.
And his high picks, are nursing something every game.
Gute has become a business man.
His GM ability; must be called into question before MLF.

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jannes bjornson's picture

December 07, 2024 at 07:29 pm

Players, not Plays, but Walker does not know how to play LB.

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stockholder's picture

December 08, 2024 at 07:38 am

Walker can play LB.
He is a team leader.
Don't give up on him.
I am not sold on Cooper inside.
He's never going to be Matt Milano.
He's already nursing injuries too much.
I know two guys that will change the defense.
And a good GM would take them over a need at CB.
UKs Dion Walker is a must draft .
Dump Wyatt.
The other guy is ILB Jihaad Campbell from Alabama.
Bothe these guys will be All-pros.

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LLCHESTY's picture

December 07, 2024 at 08:33 pm

"Calling to move on from Walker is ridicules."

Say what now?

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NickPerry's picture

December 07, 2024 at 04:46 pm

Just read this on another site about Stokes...

"Stokes hasn’t recorded a pass breakup or interception since Week 16 of his rookie season. That’s 1,176 defensive snaps, including 715 coverage snaps and 91 targets, without disrupting a single pass."

How in the HELL is this guy even on the field? Hasn't laid a finger on a single football since his ROOKIE year. I'd put Kalen King out there or go raid someone's practice squad and put ANYONE else out there other than Stokes.

I mean common people think about that...

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Starrbrite's picture

December 07, 2024 at 07:59 pm

Those are atrocious statistics for a starting nfl cb.

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TKWorldWide's picture

December 08, 2024 at 02:24 pm

To be fair, everyone here added together has just as many pass breakups as Stokes…

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HarryHodag's picture

December 07, 2024 at 05:45 pm

I question the assumption that the Packers were thought to be contenders this season.

What is plainly evident is this team needs a personnel upgrade. The Lions, Vikings Eagles simply have more good players. Bob McGinn used to classify the best players in a 'blue' category. The Packers simply don't have enough 'blue' players. You can talk all you want of Matt LF vs. Dan Campbell but Campbell should be fired if he can't take that level of talent to the Super Bowl. The Lions have been picking high in the draft for years and if you look across their roster it shows. The Packers have been consistently picking lower and that shows. Gute has followed his mentor Ron Wolf by not doing so hot in the first round but finding some gems in the lower rounds. Gute needs a home run this coming draft.

I also look for the Packers to make a couple major moves in free agency. They're poised for a Super Bowl run in 2025. Then the doors could come off as many of the young players will be up for new contracts.

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Leatherhead's picture

December 07, 2024 at 05:53 pm

There are 3 teams in the NFC who can legitimately claim to be better than the Packers....Eagles, Vikes, Lions.
There are 12 teams that have a worse record than 9-4. We beat the Rams, Cards, 49ers, Bears. Some of the others we haven't played.

That's where we are. Although the division title is still a possibility, the more likely possibility is that we'll be a Wildcard and the #5 or #6 seed. We'll get to play the winner of either the South or West. If we get past that, we could be in the NFC final four.

The youngest team in the league. Playoffs in 5 out of 6 seasons. Our HC is #12 all-time in winning %.

They also keep a coaching stat that I like because it rewards guys who've done it longer, and it's called games over .500 Shula, Halas, Bellichick, Reid at the top. LaFleur will be #31 on that list soon, right behind Chuck Knox and Bill Parcells. Every single guy ahead of him on that list coached quite a bit longer than 6 years. A few more successful seasons and he's going to be in Chuck Noll/MikeHolmgren territory.

Plus, LaFleur is a youngster. We could get a real nice run out of him. Let's say he averaged 11 wins a season for 10 years, he'd basically have a HOF resume as one of the winningest coaches in NFL history.

So....I'm pretty happy with what's happening. Let's see if we can finish the season 13-4 and secure the #5 seed. We were in the NFC final four last year, and I'd like to do it again this year.

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NFLfan's picture

December 07, 2024 at 07:42 pm

Green Bay has competed in a weak, North division for many years and it was fairly easy to dominate the Bears, Vikes and Lions.
The tables have now turned and the North is now the most dominant division. Green Bay will have to bring their D standards way up. They have been careless with 1st round Defensive Draft capital and it is imperative to draft better and look for proven players in FA and start to build a Defensive foundation and identity. Jordan Love cannot be expected to carry the team. Patrick Mahomes has a very strong D and a 1st rate coach.
Green Bay is on notice.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

December 08, 2024 at 05:56 am

"Brian Gutekunst’s failure to upgrade the cornerback position this offseason may be the team’s ultimate undoing."

To be fair, he didn't fail to upgrade the CB position, he chose not to try in favor of concentrating elsewhere. It was a calculated risk. Currently, it seems it will determine the end of GB's postseason; however, had he not focused on drafting O line and LB, our chances would hardly be better. The strategy was focus on CB in 2025 if need be, and now the need is very clear.

There are also many players who are playing, but are playing injured. Plus those out due to injury.

It's possible to finish 12-5 by losing to the Viqueens and winning the rest. Of course, 13-3 would be that much better.

GPG!!

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porupack's picture

December 08, 2024 at 08:26 am

Its refreshing to read a level headed opinion. Its all about priorities, and the CB and Safety Room looked very solid after a lot of years of investing there....and focusing on other weak units. So....the real discussion is, as you say: would it have gone any better to draft CB instead of Oline, LB, Safety? And who has that foresight to predict where the injuries will hit hardest?

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Leatherhead's picture

December 08, 2024 at 01:58 pm

We renovated the Safety room in the offseason last year. I'd suspect we're going to see a similar remodel of the CB room this offseason. As much as you'd like to , you can't fix everything at once and the injury to Alexander has left us with a weak CB room.

We dress 5 CBs. In the offseason, that looked to be Alexander, Valentine, Stokes, Nixon, Ballantine. The only one of those guys that I'm confident will be back next year is Valentine, because he's on his rookie deal. I could see Alexander traded.

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Matt's picture

December 08, 2024 at 09:59 am

Stop crying girls.
We've seen dominant teams entering playoffs and being K.O.-ed by wild card holders. We've already bee there on both sides. Last year we were told not to have a small chance against Cowboys.
Just go into the playoffs and be as healthy as you can be. There rest is a coin toss.

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Bitternotsour's picture

December 09, 2024 at 07:51 pm

can't win a super bowl if you aren't in the playoffs. as of today, the packers are in the playoffs.

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PhantomII's picture

December 08, 2024 at 12:31 pm

There is video of Lions NT almost touching our OC on many snaps and bringing instant pressure on JL via our Center. Okay ML you need to have contingencies if the officiating crew is not doing their job about defenses lining in the neutral zone. Put Clark in as a TE and move him in motion as the ball is snapped and level the NT with a full head of steam a couple times or until he backs out of there. Pain works when the officials do not. GPG

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Packerpasty's picture

December 09, 2024 at 06:10 pm

Never mind the Lions, worry about Seattle and Minny...

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