Earl Thomas: Money Matters
By jasonperone
By now, the NFL Combine is winding to a close and most of the players have been poked and prodded. And also by now, many of us have already started looking at who stood out and might make a nice addition to the Green Bay Packers roster.
With two first round picks and several others to use in the upcoming draft, the Packers will surely add some young talent. But they can't solve all of their issues in one draft so free agency becomes important as well.
Free agent safety Earl Thomas said last week that he wants to be the NFL's highest-paid at his position. The Packers, as it turns out, need a safety. Or two. And as we've learned, counting solely on young players in those roles is not an ideal recipe.
Some hear "highest paid" and cringe. Last year, when Aaron Rodgers signed his current extension, many fans who are staunch supporters of Rodgers and the Packers weren't thrilled with the money that was thrown around.
It's important to be financially prudent, as Russ Ball has been for many years. But there's also a time to strike when the opportunity allows for it.
With Seattle, Thomas was the fifth-highest paid safety in the league, both in overall contract value and average per year. His deal was worth $40 million and averaged $10 million per season. Even at those numbers, Thomas's teammate Kam Chancellor came in with a contract worth $12 million per year ($38 million total).
The league's highest-paid safety is Kansas City's Eric Berry, at $78 million total and $13 million per season. Berry just turned 31. Thomas turns 30 in May.
Some may scoff at a player being brash and wanting to be the league's highest paid. But the dollar amount probably makes sense to acquire Thomas's services.
Prior to 2018, Thomas appeared in at least 11 games each season and played in all 16 games in his first six seasons in Seattle.
He has 28 interceptions and 10 forced fumbles in his career and has defended no fewer than five passes in any seasons. Thomas had five last year in just four games.
He's coming off of another leg injury for the second time in the last three years and we all know the story about athletes over age 30. There's a risk, but there is also a big potential reward.
If the Packers are willing to pay Nick Perry over $13 million this season, why wouldn't they allocate similar money to a player of Thomas's caliber? The argument against it is that it's because they're allocating that kind of money to Perry that they may not want to add Thomas at that number.
Side note: Our Zach Jacobson wrote about Perry and his future with the Packers and reports that some agents feel that Green Bay will be looking to spend on a pass rusher or multiple rushers in free agency. That could obviously impact this entire discussion.
But the Packers have cap space. General Manager Brian Gutekunst has said the team will be players in free agency. At the very least, be a part of the conversation, in many cases. The cap space and player cost could be very ripe.
If Green Bay sees that there is a window of opportunity to win big, they have to be considering Thomas as an option. Adding him to a secondary with Jaire Alexander and, hopefully, a healthy Kevin King would greatly boost that area of the defense.
A decision on Thomas will likely be made prior to the draft but with two first round picks, the Packers can focus on other areas of need such as pass rush, offensive line and tight end.
In the end, Thomas has to say "yes" wherever he goes. That may not be Green Bay, but the Packers have to find a way to be a big part of the conversation.
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Jason is a freelance writer on staff since 2012 and also co-hosts Cheesehead TV Live, Pulse of the Pack and Pack A Day podcasts. You can follow him on Twitter here
Comments (55)
TKWorldWide
March 04, 2019 at 06:09 am
Sure, GB has some cap, but don’t some teams (Raiders, Browns, Bills, Texans, Colts, Jets) have twice as much? I’d think a guy like Thomas, openly pursuing top money, would use that to his advantage.
cuervo
March 04, 2019 at 06:20 am
There is no way I would pay a 30 year old player that hasn't played a full season in 3 years over 13 million/season with a multi year deal.
Leatherhead
March 04, 2019 at 07:57 am
You're making too much sense here. This should be a no brainer.
The Packers have signaled they want Campbell back, and I suspect we'll see a safety taken early in the draft. As much as many of us are looking for an overhaul of the safety position, I think it's going to be more of a minor remodeling with quite a few of the people we had last year back in uniform.
Minniman
March 04, 2019 at 12:44 pm
I agree.
Among the many obvious differences between QB's and every other position group (for the pernickety) is the fact that the laws are evolving to protect QB's and that financial investment - hence why near or 40-something QB's will not be such an oddity in the NFL.
Sure, there's helmet and targeting laws for the rest but these actually make defensive players jobs harder (objectively speaking here).
Looking at it objectively the only way that I could perceive Earl Thomas being the highest paid positional player is if he ceded more of the guaranteed money and made it all incentives based.
This isn't saying anything about him or his play, just that the risk quotient on him is too high to lay that much guaranteed money into.
NickPerry
March 04, 2019 at 06:20 am
Two leg injuries in 3 seasons, turns 30 in May, AND the fact he played the position with little or no regard for his body, you have to wonder when the body just says no on a consistent basis.
As much as I'd love to see Earl Thomas wearing a Packers uniform instead of that putrid green or playing for the REAL "Americas Team" instead of that weirdo in Texas, I have to step back and take a look at what Thomas really MIGHT be.
A cheaper safety in FA along with a couple of pass rushers would probably go just as far if not further in helping fix the Packers defense. The Packers REALLY have to think about the next 3 years and look for younger players. Thomas is great but we've seen great go to very average once a player hits 30 more times than not.
dobber
March 04, 2019 at 07:10 am
"Two leg injuries in 3 seasons, turns 30 in May, AND the fact he played the position with little or no regard for his body, you have to wonder when the body just says no on a consistent basis."
Switch "leg" to "collarbone" and who are we talking about (OK, in 4 seasons and well past 30, but still)...
TKWorldWide
March 04, 2019 at 07:33 am
Yowza!
Leatherhead
March 04, 2019 at 09:15 am
And yet, Dobber, despite all that, nobody even wants to consider getting an insurance policy at the game's most important position. Let's put ALL our eggs in one basket.
TKWorldWide
March 04, 2019 at 10:50 am
Time to get another basket?
Leatherhead
March 04, 2019 at 11:42 am
The most successful baskets at the most important position are generally found in the first round and we have two first round picks.
Oh no, wait.....let's spend one of those on a guy who can improve us from #8 to #4 in sacks and another on a big guy who runs fast.
dobber
March 04, 2019 at 02:24 pm
The Bears made a crap-ton of moves last off-season to become SB contenders, but the one they made that most point toward is the acquisition of Mack, who moved them up from 7th in sacks to...3rd.
Minniman
March 04, 2019 at 12:51 pm
Read my reply to Cuervo above dobber - there's rules for some and rules for the rest.
QB's are so protected now that I'm sure that the next rules will be that defenders have to put a pillow under the head of the QB as they carefully lower them to the ground during a "tackle".
Smart OC's and QB's are already exploiting this.
NickPerry
March 05, 2019 at 05:49 am
Ouch!!
For what it's worth I was in favor of letting him play under the contract he had and if worse came to worse franchise for 2 years.
Ferrari Driver
March 04, 2019 at 10:58 pm
NP, I'll drink to that.
HankScorpio
March 04, 2019 at 06:38 am
Someone that is covering the combine from Indy tweeted that the rumor mill says the Packers are going after pass rush in FA. Then they will assess available cap and do more, if there is cap space available.
I'm not entirely sure how that would look. I'm really hoping it means they can add edge and OG, at least. But if it means they are not spending big on Earl Thomas, I'm all for it. Thomas is very good and fills a need. But something about pulling the trigger on signing him for big $$ rubs me the wrong way. I don't know if it is his age & injury history or just my personal bias against paying big cap or draft capital on Safety.
dobber
March 04, 2019 at 07:12 am
The Packers might be talking to agents about 'hypotheticals' (because, of course, NO tampering ever happens outside that short window coming up), but we'll see if it's just kicking the tires or real, substantive interest.
TKWorldWide
March 04, 2019 at 07:35 am
Remember, the middle word in “hypothetical” is “pothetic”...close enough, I’d say.
Mojo
March 04, 2019 at 01:40 pm
Not sure what benefit the Packers get by disclosing the need for spending a lot on pass-rushing FA's. Agents can see a mark a mile away. Considering nearly all the difference makers will be resigned of tagged, don't just throw big wads of cash at the middling leftovers just for the sake of picking up an edge guy.
I'd prefer they spend it more on mid-level replacements who may not be stars, but are better than what we have.
Way too many holes to fill if they plunk down the cash on one big name and then reevaluate to see if there is cap space available.
Savage57
March 04, 2019 at 06:40 am
Ummm, no.
There's no meat left in the safety section of the freezer, they need to figure out how to stretch the budget to fill it, and someone says let's go get the most expensive steak we can possibly find.
Ferrari Driver
March 04, 2019 at 11:00 pm
You sound like my wife, only she often adds a lobster.
RCPackerFan
March 04, 2019 at 07:05 am
I would love to see us stabilize the Safety position. Thomas (if and when healthy) would help solidify that position. But my question with him is about age and injuries. Will he hold up? Was his 2 leg injuries 'freak' injuries. Or was it his body starting to break down?
This is a huge offseason. To improve they absolutely have to improve 2 positions on the roster. The Safety and OLB positions. Those are the weaknesses of the defense.
I think the OLB position is a lot stronger then the S position at least at the top of the draft. They should be able to come away with a good pass rusher in the first round.
This makes finding a veteran safety more important IMO.
dobber
March 04, 2019 at 07:13 am
I just don't see broken bones as wear and tear injuries.
That said, I sure don't want the Packers to make Thomas the highest paid S in the NFL.
TKWorldWide
March 04, 2019 at 07:36 am
Agree on both counts.
RCPackerFan
March 04, 2019 at 07:58 am
I wouldn't think so, but does the battering he has taken over the years taken its toll? I don't know.
A lot of players once they reach the age of 30, really start to decline. Will Thomas be one, or not?
I don't want to make him the highest paid Safety either to be honest. With his age and recent injury history. I am just leerious.
I do think he'd be a great addition if healthy and was able to stay healthy. I just want to make sure I'm getting the player that isn't well past his prime.
TKWorldWide
March 04, 2019 at 10:52 am
You had me at “leerious”.
dobber
March 04, 2019 at 02:26 pm
...he certainly had SOMETHING.
CAG123
March 04, 2019 at 11:03 am
I mean his first one was definitely a freak accident it was caused by Kam when Thomas was going up for a pick and Kam slammed into his leg helmet first.
Bure9620
March 04, 2019 at 07:34 am
We really don't have that much cap space, Indy has 100 mil? The Packers are about in the middle of the pack for cap space. I just don't see them spending 10-12 mil annually for Earl Thomas. Even if they are in discussions they will likely be outbid.
Cartwright
March 04, 2019 at 08:06 am
I bet Pettine is pluggin' for Thomas. We lost out on Mack and I think coach Pettine is looking for an impact player like him. We don't have one. This is the chance, don't see any other FA that would make our defense better by a lot. We really have nobody back there at safety. His presence would change that day one and allow Pettine to coach with calm and focus his attention elsewhere.
TKWorldWide
March 04, 2019 at 10:53 am
I do wonder about Pettine’s take on this.
Handsback
March 04, 2019 at 07:50 am
I don't see Thomas as a Packer. He wants the Cowboys and vice versa. Green Bay would have to over-pay him a lot for his services, by 5-10% just to make up the tax difference between states. If they want to make a difference, make it on a young Edge guy. Don't get me wrong, Thomas is the best safety around....just don't see him in the green and gold.
Cartwright
March 04, 2019 at 08:14 am
Your probably right about the Cowboys. Just dreamin' we get another iconic figure on defense, we had Clay , Mike Daniels gave a whiff but nobody as of yet, although Jaire is showing that potential.
Minniman
March 04, 2019 at 12:57 pm
"He wants the Cowboys and vice versa."
If this is true, then by declaring it, he's probably going to have to accept a discount to make it happen.
Community Guy
March 04, 2019 at 02:23 pm
Cowboys are gonna pay Lawrence, extend Dak, Zeke and Amari Cooper.. they also are likely to resign Byron Jones. the "boys" will likely not have money to pay Thomas also. San Francisco may be a more likely landing spot for Thomas.
i say: let the market play out.. if Thomas drops enough, nab him!
Gibsonsupreme
March 04, 2019 at 07:50 am
Great article. It's a difficult decision to make. If Earl Thomas is sign for 3 years and stays healty, Gute looks like a genius because Thomas is the best FS available. Then there's the possibility of improving for less money by getting somebody like Adrian Amos. You can probably also get Gardner Johnson with pick #44 (the kid as an amazing tape) but then, the secondary would be extremely inexperienced. It's a young man's game is a great mantra but you can't be young everywhere in coverage. Gotta trust Gute!
Packer_Fan
March 04, 2019 at 07:55 am
An interesting decision. Thomas could provide extra benefit for his directing the defense and special plays he can make. But I don't think that BG has the money to make two splashes in free agency. Meaning a big edge rusher signing and Thomas. We will see.
Guam
March 04, 2019 at 08:04 am
The Packers need a veteran safety to solidify their secondary, but I would prefer it to be one of the other FA safeties. I think the bidding is going to be steep for Thomas (particularly with the Cowboys involved) and that will distort his value. Get better value elsewhere (Matthews, Collins, etc.) and have some money leftover for other FA acquisitions.
CAG123
March 04, 2019 at 11:09 am
The thing is the Cowboys do have valuable FA of their own to think about like Demarcus Lawrence, Byron Jones, Zeke, and Dak. Do they really want to invest so much in Thomas when their own in prime guys need to be taken care of first? Plus getting Thomas would be more of a luxury for them their secondary was great last year.
PeteK
March 04, 2019 at 08:16 am
Let him decide, 3yrs 30 mill 10 guaranteed.
Qoojo
March 04, 2019 at 09:51 am
I don't follow him that closely. He injured his leg again last season. Is it the same leg and injury? Doctors would need to evaluate the probability of him staying healthy. If it looks good, it's a very intriguing risk vs reward roll of the dice. I like the idea of swapping Perry and Graham for him, then they can draft for backup as well.
Then the next question is how much of a difference would he make vs Collins? Who seems like a less risky long term solution.
Glad I don't have to make all these guesses and evaluations.
NJMagic
March 04, 2019 at 10:07 am
Don't overpay...
Tre Boston, pls.
A good young RG.
A slot WR- Williams? Crowder?
Draft a difference maker at LB- ILB *or* OLB.
Devin White???
And who is available at edge in UFA (I.e. That won't cost a first round pick?)
Lot of work to upgrade. Spread it around.
CAG123
March 04, 2019 at 11:14 am
Tre Boston? He's played for 3 teams in 3 years possibly going to be four. There is a reason teams haven't locked him up he's no Derrel Revis to be lending his services from team to team every year.
NJMagic
March 04, 2019 at 02:10 pm
That's not the point. Look at his play. He can play center field and COVER. Will free Pettine up to run his blitz package up front knowing he finally has someone assignment sure who can cover and tackle.
AND he will be reasonably priced.
Don't gamble to overpay Thomas... pay the guy who will be available for 16 games in the right spot.l on every play.
This would be a start to solidifying the position and be greater than the individual part.
dobber
March 04, 2019 at 02:30 pm
I think that's the key: where can you make significant leaps without paying significant cap? The S market will be flush with players and it's been depressed in $$. It's a solid opportunity to upgrade without needing to bury a high-end draft pick (which could be used to address other needs). With the players they've had at S in recent years, just how high do they need to climb on the FA totem pole to make a solid improvement?
CAG123
March 04, 2019 at 03:38 pm
If that was the case he wouldn't be a FA. Safeties that can cover CONSISTENTLY do not get waived then play 2 years on crappy contracts. So either the Panthers, Chargers, and Cardinals are run by idiots or Tre Boston isn't very consistent.
Lphill
March 04, 2019 at 10:57 am
forget Thomas he wants to play for the Cowboys anyway, Devin White if he falls to 12 the Packers have to take him, best Tight end left at 30 and edge in 2nd round.
4zone
March 04, 2019 at 11:28 am
Landon Collins!
Flow49
March 04, 2019 at 10:07 pm
Also 5 years younger than Thomas
TheBigCheeze
March 04, 2019 at 11:53 am
...a hard pass on Thomas......too much $$$......re-sign Breeland......
JonathanSpader
March 04, 2019 at 12:45 pm
Of course Thomas wants to be the highest paid safety he's the best safety in football and this is his last opportunity for a great payday. If Gute signs him I'll be thrilled to have a difference maker on the defense at a position that seriously needed upgrading. If Thomas is out of GB's budget I'm fine with them spreading the wealth around and patching other glaring holes on the roster. Can we talk about the combine now?
Gman1976
March 04, 2019 at 07:10 pm
I'd love to have Thomas too, but not break the bank for a player who has had more than his share of injuries the past few years. I'd like see the Packers get an experienced safety and draft another, sign an experienced edge rusher & draft another, sign an experienced TE and draft another, and sign an experienced lineman and draft another. If they can't afford to do all 4, then do 3 of the above. We need quality experience and youth. Can't wait to see what our new GM is going to do!
Fire_Gute
March 04, 2019 at 08:19 pm
Earl Thomas flipped off his own team last year. I get he was frustrated, but hes clearly all about himself. I really, really don't want to see the Packers draft a safety high again. We just can't afford to. And the cupboard is about as empty as it gets. But I think id rather see another 1st or 2nd round safety than Thomas
Wilment
March 04, 2019 at 08:25 pm
Before Id go dumping big money on Thomas, Id consider some other guys that are healthy and available, Collins from the Giants, Amos from the Bears, Phillips from the Chargers, or if you want a veteran so you can draft a safety and bring him along, Quinn from lions. Those two leg injuries and age are a concern with Thomas. GO PACK!!
Flow49
March 05, 2019 at 12:07 am
Collins seems to really like and respect Rodgers. I think he’d jump at the chance to play in Green Bay if the money is right enough. We’d have to overpay the market to get Thomas to Green Bay
Urupackers
March 05, 2019 at 01:17 pm
Yes, keep adding middle of the pack players instead game changers. The last game changer the Packers added in FA was Charles Woodson, you remember how many years ago???