Drafting Before Free Agency?
Could rookie selection ever come before free agent signings?
By GregMeinholz
NFL fans every offseason are used to free agency coming before the NFL Draft. Teams sign veteran players to fill holes on their rosters before they draft their hopeful stars of the future. But it's not like this in every sport. In the NBA and NHL, in fact, the draft comes before free agency. The stars of the future have their time in the spotlight before those exciting veteran signings.
For the NBA and NHL, however, this makes sense. Many players available in the draft aren't ready to hit the pro-league ranks right off the bat. In fact, with the NHL, unless they're considered generational players picked in the top-3 or so, many draft picks won't even make it to the pro ranks for several years. They'll spend time playing for junior league or college teams until they're ready for the pros. And even then, they may cut their teeth in the minor league for a few years. So, in that case, the draft and free agency usually have zero impact on one another.
This is different in the NFL.
Many NFL teams expect their day 1 and day 2 draft picks to be contributors in their first year in some fashion. Even early-day 3 draft picks carry the expectation of at least being a decent depth player or special teams contributor in their rookie season. As a result, there have been many occasions at the start of the season where NFL teams cut ties with free agents they signed in March because they now have a much cheaper and younger rookie option to take their place.
His release happened a year after he was signed, but a famous example of free agent regret post-draft for Packers fans could be Seattle drafting Russell Wilson after signing Matt Flynn to a lucrative deal. Seattle paid Matt Flynn to be their QB with the hope that he could be a franchise changer for them. But instead, Flynn never lived up to the hype he got from his flashes in Green Bay, and with Flynn also limited by an arm injury in training camp, Russell Wilson beat him out for the starting job, leading to Flynn's eventual departure a year later.
Of course, there was no way to know that Russell Wilson would eventually become the best QB in Seattle history on draft day. But I'm sure the Seahawks would not have paid Matt Flynn like they did had they known Wilson would fall into their laps in the third round.
So, what if the NFL flipped the script and the draft came before free agency?
Flipping the Draft and Free Agency
Many teams, the Packers included, maintain the philosophy that they draft the best player available over drafting for need. But we all know there are caveats. Instead, they should call it, "the best player available at areas where we're thin, or thinning." Brian Gutekunst always has the trend of drafting players at positions where veteran contracts may be expiring in a year. There's always some kind of "need," whether they admit it or not.
Of course, there's a skill with NFL GMs and Scouts in drafting players they think will contribute to their team. But much of it can be based on luck. What happens when the best player on the board doesn’t match your biggest need??
Imagine you need a starting left tackle. You passed on signing expensive veterans with the knowledge that there are four starting-caliber left tackles in the draft that could slot into the position immediately, and the other players at the position may take a year or so to develop. It's draft day, you're picking 15th. By your calculations of the other team's needs, at least one, if not two, of these tackles should fall to you. But alas, two are picked early, and then two more teams jump over you via trade to draft the other two. Your team is now possibly stuck with a left tackle that isn't going to cut it this year unless you pull off a big trade.
But if you flip the boat on that situation, having the draft before free agency, you now have the chance to go all-in on a veteran free agent left tackle since you missed out in the draft. Teams might be a bit more aggressive in free agency, signing a proven player with the knowledge that the draft didn't go their way.
Of course, there is that script flip: veteran players may receive less lucrative deals since teams can patch holes with younger, cheaper players first. It could also be damaging to players who play more depth roles than starting, if rookie players can fill that need before the draft comes up. So, it would be a shock to no one if the NFLPA stepped in to put a halt to the idea of flipping the draft and free agency.
Flipping the order of the NFL Draft and free agency wouldn't just be an overnight experiment; it would change how many teams build their rosters. The current system forces GMs to balance immediate needs with long-term upside, even if it could backfire on them. Reversing that order would shift the league entirely. Do you try to fill that hole on your team with an unproven player with a high ceiling? Or do you wait for free agency to try signing a veteran to take that spot? Packers GM Brian Gutekunst already tends to "double-dip" between the draft and free agency at positions of need. He may sign a free agent to fill a hole, but he will still draft a player at that same position within the first four rounds. Having the draft first may cause more GMs to adopt this strategy.
For now, the NFL remains a league where teams must commit to veterans before they know what the draft will bring. And in a system built on uncertainty, the best organizations aren’t just the ones that get it right—they’re the ones built to recover when they don’t.
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Greg Meinholz is a lifelong devoted Packer fan. A contributor to CheeseheadTV as well as PackersTalk. Follow him on Twitter @gmeinholz and Bluesky @gmeinholz.bsky.social for Packers commentary, random humor, beer endorsements, and occasional Star Wars and Marvel ramblings.
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Comments (22)
Coldworld
April 15, 2026 at 10:32 am
The draft often causes roster shakeups that increase the FA pool. It is usually followed by a round of signings by teams who still see gaps. Mostly that’s for experienced depth, but occasionally a GM sees a player hit the market that he loves or thinks has been miscast and thus has untapped talent.
So in a sense it already does in part. No pick is a guarantee anyway. Not even number 1. I doubt a team would equate one to a proven and healthy performer now available at a position that they feel could make a difference. Those players are expensive because they are much better known commodities.
So I don’t see the draft ever coming first even without practical scouting/eligibilty obstacles or the union’s interest in protecting existing members.
Ray-66
April 15, 2026 at 10:46 am
It would be interesting to see how much this would cut back on the high free agent contracts. Also, it the free agent contracts were slimmed down would this affect the salary cap amounts and comp. picks for the next year?
GregC
April 15, 2026 at 10:50 am
It would make sense to have the draft before free agency, for the reasons stated in this article. So what are the factors that prevent this from happening? I think the league likes to wait until late April for the draft because it generates publicity in the middle of the off-season. It also helps that it is after the college basketball season has ended. It's a sweet spot on the sports calendar.
Fair enough. So why not just wait until May for free agency? Maybe they want the top end of the rosters to be settled before the OTAs. I don't see that as a huge deal, though. Maybe I'm missing something.
Guam
April 15, 2026 at 11:26 am
I don't think the calendar is entirely the league's choice. The NFLPA might have a lot to say about free agency versus the draft. The NFLPA will always prefer to have free agency before the draft to maximize the contracts of existing players. They don't want the NFL plugging roster holes with draftees, they want them plugged with veterans.
GregC
April 15, 2026 at 12:00 pm
Maybe it's something like that. But it seems to me that because most teams pretty much max out their spending on player salaries under the salary cap, the players are going to get paid one way or another.
Guam
April 15, 2026 at 10:22 pm
There is still the distinction between vets and draftees when players get paid. If a team thinks it got lucky in the draft and found the perfect solution to its roster hole, it won't need to sign an expensive free agent vet to a contract. If the free agent vets are first for consideration, they are more likely to be signed as the team can't count on being lucky in the draft.
Yes the total money will still get funneled to players as the CBA requires teams to spend a minimum of 97% of their cap every year (on average). However who gets the money changes and I suspect the NFLPA worry is that fewer older vets will get paid if the draft goes first.
dobber
April 16, 2026 at 08:06 am
I think it protects guarantees and bonus money in those contracts as much as it protects the overall values and AAVs. Yes, players like to get "market-setting" contracts, but they really care about the guarantees...which means the union does, too.
Cheezehead72
April 15, 2026 at 11:40 am
I go to the proverb attributed to Burt Lance. If it ain't broke don't fix it.
Cheezehead72
April 15, 2026 at 12:10 pm
One thing to consider is that under the current system FA signings before the draft affect the comp picks. Yes I know they still could change the dates and make it halfway between the draft and training camp.
GregC
April 15, 2026 at 01:21 pm
The FA signings affect comp picks for next year's draft, so they don't factor into this.
Cheezehead72
April 15, 2026 at 01:54 pm
What I meant was FA signings before the draft are used for the comp pick computation for next year. FA signings after the draft do not affect the comp picks.
dobber
April 16, 2026 at 07:29 am
All they need to do is install a calendar: draft in March, rookie camps in mid March, FA opens April 1, after May 1 FAs don't figure into comp picks.
I think part of the issue that would need to be addressed is the signing of UDFAs. They're going to fill rosters to 90, and if you're an NFL team in a "draft before FA" world do you want to wait until FA opens to sign UDFAs? If you're the NFLPA, do you want to see UDFAs filling rosters before money goes to your members?
ThinkBig
April 15, 2026 at 05:33 pm
The Packers have been a draft & develop team? Lets look how well Gute has done in the 1st round?
1) Alexander = Starter & earned a 2nd contract & went in the tank & never performed at an even close to pro bowl level after that & turned into a cancer on the team! Waived & picked up by Balt & waived & picked up by Phil & now out of the league! = 4 years for CB FAIL
2) Savage= Started & never lived up to expectations & bounced around the league. = FAIL
3) Gary = Way over reach.....didn't start for the 1st 2 years & then started & got a 2nd contract & after an ACL tear never performed even close to his contract....But Gute traded him (a 1st round choice) for a 4th round draft choice = FAIL
4) Love = Sat for 3 years & started 1 year & received a $55 million contract.....good QB but has failed in pressure situations = Jury is still out
5) Stokes = Started rookie year & was decent & after that between injuries & poor play, he didn't receive a 2nd contract & plays for LV = FAIL
6) Q Walker = Never lived up to expectations & terrible in pass coverage.....no 2nd contract & signed by LV = FAIL
7) Wyatt = Has shown flashes of talent but can't stay on the field because of injuries = Jury is still out
8) LVN = AGAIN OVER REACH.... never started a college game...inconsistent play & injuries over 3 years = BUST & Please NO on the 5th year OPTION!
9) Morgan = Another surprise pick by Gute....Failed at right Guard, Failed at right Tackle & now in the 3rd year is supposed to start at left Tackle = Another head scratcher by Gute = FAIL so far
10) Golden = Way under used in his rookie season = Jury is still out
The point is the first round should be for players that are expected to start at some point in their rookie season....not develop & hope they start in their 3rd or 4th season.....Gute places to much emphasis on measurables & not on FOOTBALL PLAYERS!
I hope I'm wrong going forward....but doing the same thing & expecting different results = INSANITY
golfpacker61
April 15, 2026 at 05:39 pm
How about a draft? Madr some trades back & got 2 CBs, 2 DTs, 2 OL, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 LB, 1 Edge
61. Julian Neal-CB Arkansas
84. Domonique Orange-DT Iowa State
102. Logan Taylor-OG Boston College
122. Jaishawn Barham-EDGE Michigan
153. Daylen Everette CB Georgia-
175. De'Zhaun Stribling-WR Ole Miss
201. Marlin Klein-TE Michigan
208. Diego Pounds-OT Ole Miss
215. Jeff Caldwell-WR Cincinnati
246. Jordan van den Berg-DT Georgia Tech
257. Jaden Dugger-LB Louisiana
Since'61
April 15, 2026 at 08:30 pm
I don't see any reason why the draft should take place prior too free agency. Preparing for the draft takes significantly more effort than identifying which free agents to sign and how much the team can afford to pay them. First off the GMs are familiar with the league's existing players and what level of experience and talent they can add to their current roster. Players and their agents would prefer to get their contracts signed and move on with their off-season plans other than waiting a few more months for their future to be determined.
The draft on the other hand requires scouting the entire college football season. The scouts need to prepare their reports on the players they have scouted and working with the GM they put together the team's draft board and various scenarios for how the draft may or may not break with the team's draft board. Prepare ng for the draft is a much more arduous process especially if a team has turned over their coaching staff (or part of it) and if they have a new GM. Then there is the Senior Bowl, the NFL combine, Pro days and individual team meetings with up to 30 players.
Bottom line is that the teams need more time to prepare for the draft than they do for the FA period. Beyond that the league has worked it out to maintain some level of fan interest and income throughout the entire year. September to February; regular season, playoffs and the Super Bowl. March has free Agency, April has the draft, May has OTA's, June has the mandatory camp, July is Training camp and August is the pre-season. If you're the NFL why mess with success?
Thanks, Since '61
GregC
April 16, 2026 at 07:23 am
That is a very well-reasoned argument for keeping things as is. I still like the idea of having the draft first, followed by free agency, in terms of team-building, but you are right that there are some strong reasons to leave a lot of time before the draft. If they were going to switch things around, I think the best they could do would be to move the draft ahead a couple weeks (not so far as to run into the college basketball tournament) and then have free agency immediately afterwards. You are right, though, that it would be a long wait for all those free agents to know which team they will be playing for. Also, free agency would steal the thunder of the draft by immediately creating new headlines.
Since'75
April 15, 2026 at 08:40 pm
Funny thing happened...
I wrote a post, it had 7 thumbs up.
Now...it has zero, as in none, they were removed.
WOW
Here is the post....
**********
Since'75
April 10, 2026 at 07:08 pm
In unrelated....Congrats NASA and Artemis II crew....Proud
****
Does this website hate America? 🤷♂️
Since'61
April 16, 2026 at 08:15 am
Since'75 - I checked your post. I don't think has anything to do with what you posted about the Artemis II mission.
I noticed that every post on that thread doesn't have any thumbs up or down. Possibly something went wrong with the program on that day. What ever happened I don't think it was due to your comment about Artemis II. Carry on. Thanks, Since '61
Since'75
April 16, 2026 at 06:20 pm
There you go again!!
Proving you're smarter than i am.
Well...i guess 2nd place isn't so bad. 😏
Vachio
April 16, 2026 at 07:10 am
I don't think it matters overly much in the NFL. The draft is a crapshoot. I remember drafts of the past where there was vigorous argument about whether Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf was the better QB (painful admission...I was in the Leaf camp) and Tim Couch and Akili Smith were going to revolutionize the QB position for the Browns and Bengals, respectively, and turn them into perennial contenders. And how about a little Jamarcus Russell? Tom Brady wasn't taken until the 6th round...
There are, have been, and always will be more misses than hits and pure dumb luck matters a whole lot more than anyone in the NFL wants to admit. Free Agents, while it's still a crapshoot as to whether or not they will work well with a particular system, coach, or locker room, have at least shown the ability to be competent at the NFL level.
With all that, the order doesn't really matter. The fans are going to be excited or dismayed about whatever moves are made regardless.
dobber
April 16, 2026 at 07:37 am
All the other major sports--and you left out MLB--that draft before free agency gets going in earnest have minor league systems. The article points some of this out: the NHL has extensive minor leagues as does MLB. The NBA has its D-league (but how many players make an impact from the D-league?). It doesn't even talk about overseas leagues where players can go to grow.
The NFL has college football. That's pretty much it. And those college players are unclaimed, unlike hockey where there are plenty of draftees skating for college teams (and with NIL money, they have no reason to hurry into the ECHL or the like). Players jump from college to NFL rosters with little development in between, and most players need at least a year to grow into NFL bodies. So what I'd argue is that the two do wholly different things: free agency is how you fix your roster for the now. Drafting is longer term and speculative. While I'd like to see the draft first, I think it would complicate roster construction more than it would help it.
I think every year this discussion comes up here, at least among the chat threads. I agree with a lot of the points above: stopgap FAs often don't make it to week 1 because they get beat out by a rookie, but those are often short-term and low money contracts. GMs sign a lot of those guys knowing they might not make the 53. Teams don't tend to spend big on an FA and then undermine him with a draft pick. That's just lousy use of resources.
I also agree that the NFLPA has things set up to benefit their membership as much as possible and to keep salaries climbing. While I think drafting first makes far more economic and roster building sense, it makes free agency an afterthought and limits its marketability to fans. College players aren't in the NFLPA, and their contracts are capped and suppressed...but the draft is far more of an event than FA is. The Draft draws in the casual NFL but rabid college fans, and its timing gives it a platform all to itself. That's just smart marketing.
BuckyBadger
April 16, 2026 at 08:50 am
This article shows why a minor league in the NFL doesn't work. In MLB and NHL you can play the sport honing your skills and not wreck your body. In football a minor league could develop QBs but everyone else is just ruining their body.