This is the time of the year where roster-building philosophies and personal preferences are in vogue. With the NFL Draft approaching, analysts and fans talk about players, positions, needs, and value. And it's common for some to misunderstand concepts of how NFL teams are or should be built.

During this period of the offseason, a frequent misconception is related to positional value. Does it really matter? How does it work? How is it possible to measure and evaluate it?

Being good is not being valuable

Last year, when I criticized the Quay Walker pick because he is an off-ball linebacker, several Packers fans countered, arguing Rashan Gary was also a contested pick because of his raw profile, or saying that Walker had the potential to be a really good player. Gary was, in fact, a contested pick, and Walker might be a solid defender — he was selected to the All-Rookie Team, for example — and the criticism coming from the positional value perspective is still valid. There is a difference, and sometimes it's hard for people to digest this reality, between quality and value.

We've long past the days of kickers in the first round — the last one was Sebastian Janikowski, by the Oakland Raiders, in 2000, even though Roberto Aguayo was a second-rounder by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2016 —, but it still seems difficult to understand why the same logic applies to non-specialists. But that's exactly the same point, even if applied to a lesser extent. Janikowski was an All-Pro and Pro Bowler, playing 18 years for the Raiders. But he produced half the Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value if compared to quarterback Derek Carr, who played nine years for the Raiders. The point is Janikowski was good, but not valuable. So the old mantra "just pick good players" might be a roster-building malpractice.

Currently, the Indianapolis Colts are a good (or, well, bad) example. Their best players in a vacuum are running back Jonathan Taylor, linebacker Shaq Leonard, guard Quenton Nelson, and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. They are all unquestionably good players, but the Colts haven't been able to win consistently because of their problems at more valuable positions, such as quarterback, left tackle, and edge defender.

Performance

Pro Football Focus created a metric called Wins Above Replacement to understand how well a player performed, what the player did and how important that task is to winning games, and how often did the player do the various things he did. In the 2020 season, for instance, the company released a study comparing the total WAR generated by the top 32 players at each position. The best quarterbacks generated 53.3 wins above a replacement level player from the same position. The WAR generated by the 32 best centers was 2.53. By tight ends, a position the Packers might draft early this year, it was 5.37.

Quarterback, cornerback, safety, and wide receiver were the only four positions above 10 in WAR combined, and they were all above 20, so the difference is massive. And, again, this is not a reflection of the quality of the players, because the 32 top players at each position were analyzed.

Surplus value

Since the 2011 CBA was installed in the NFL, a huge consideration for teams is the rookie-scale contract. From that point on, rookie players have received standard four-year contracts based on their draft position, not on their on-field position. This means that if a team takes a quarterback or a punter in a specific draft slot, the four-year rookie contract will be equal. Disclaimer: fifth-year options for first-rounders are determined by position.

Teams have limited resources to build their rosters — salary cap, roster spots, draft assets. So teams are not built in a vacuum. If a general manager wants to maximize the chances of building a good team, it makes sense to use his most valuable resources in the most important places.

A simple example is a comparison between two pass-catching positions, something in vogue since the Packers need to add tight ends to their room.

Last year's 13th overall pick was Jordan Davis, a defensive tackle taken by the Philadelphia Eagles. His average salary per year is $ 4.2 million. Considering inflation, the Packers' pick at 13 will receive a little more than $ 4.5 million on average per season. The highest-paid wide receiver on average per year is Miami Dolphins' Tyreek Hill at $ 30 million. So if the Packers get an elite wide receiver, they are generating almost $ 26 million per season in surplus value. The highest-paid tight end is Darren Waller, from the New York Giants, at $ 17 million. So the surplus value here would be around $ 13 million. It obviously doesn't mean a team should take a bad wide receiver over a good tight end, but the value of the position is an important factor to understand how a team can maximize its limited resources.

If you understand this picture, then you understand the NFL draft.

A lot of teams don't! pic.twitter.com/bAmS1qpqnB

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) March 28, 2022

Over The Cap published a good research analyzing positional value according to how teams pay their player — its metric shows how many times more valuable the league sees the position rather than every other position. As expected, quarterback, left tackle, edge, right tackle, wide receiver, and defensive tackle are the most valuable ones. Besides specialists, the least valuable positions are fullback, running back, off-ball linebacker, tight end, safety, and guard.

At the end of the day, you might disagree with this perception and think taking good players is enough to build a great team. But facts, studies and recent history indicate positional value does matter, and good teams use it in their favor to build the best rosters possible with scarce resources.

Photo: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports