Around the NFC North: 2026 Salary Cap
Tired: Can the Lions keep it together? Wired: Can the Bears keep it together?!
By Mike Price
It's hard to stay good long term in the NFL. In baseball, there is no salary cap, so if your owner can do it, you can keep paying people. In the NBA, you can use all kinds of shenanigans to keep your homegrown players. In the NFL, not only is there one hard cap number, but players rarely play into second or third contracts anyway. Let's take a look at how the inferior teams in the NFC North may evolve next off-season.
Bears
As it stands, the Bears have a yikes-inducing ($4.6mm) of cap space in 2026. That's a negative number. Just to sign their draft class, they'll need to shed at least $10mm. Right now, they have about $14mm of 2025 space that would carry over. That covers the downfall but leaves them basically nothing to use in free agency. And that's only if they don't spend anything else this year. We'll go over mechanisms they can use to get more space, but, first, let's talk about who they could lose in free agency.
And...it's not really anyone significant. Off and on safeties Kevin Byard and Jaquan Brisker will be free agents. Journeyman d-lineman Andrew Billings will be one. And that's close to it among impactful players.
So, who's at risk? The two most obvious are DJ Moore and Montez Sweat, who combine for a total of $53.1 million against the cap. Sheesh! Moore is already signed through 2029, his age-32 season, so an extension isn't really an option there. Sweat is signed through 2027, when he'll be 31. Probably no extension there either. If they traded Sweat and restructured Moore they'd save close to $29mm in a couple fell swoops (more like fail swoop amirite). That opens up plenty of space, but it sucks to get rid of a guy who was the best player on your defense like a year ago and shove $15mm of cap out to over age 30 years for like the 27th best receiver in the NFL. These are the things you have to deal with in a sh** franchise.
Another option is to cut Tremaine Edmunds. That saves $15mm and he's bad, so double-plus good. But, again, it sucks to cut a "star" free agent. De'Andre Slow would save around $7.5mm and Cole Kmet would save $8.4mm.
Not a lot of options! I guess they can count on a top-ten pick.
Lions
The Lions are also starting out in a rough spot: they're $55mm over the cap for 2026. Not good!
They're at about $40mm in space right now for 2024, so plenty to roll over, but still not close to enough. Note that Over the Cap still has Frank Ragnow on the books for both seasons. His retirement may change those numbers.
How about free agents? DJ reader, Alex Anzalone, Tim Patrick and Amik Robertson are the biggest names. Again, not bad. Probably don't need to re-sign any of them.
So we need to dump/move around probably $30mm of cap, minimum, to get to where you can sign the draftees and have some flexibility. There's a big ole elephant in the room here.
Jared Goff has a $70mm (!!!!!!!) cap number. Well, $69.6mm, but still. Give me several breaks. And you can't even cut him! Cut him pre-June 1 and he leaves $99mm of dead cap, meaning he counts $30mm MORE against the cap than he would have otherwise. Cut him post-June 1 and there's no savings - equal dead cap and cap hit. So, that's out.
A trade is possible: that would save $55mm, which would be pretty good. And who knows what you could get in the draft with your shiny new 2029 7th-round pick. And that's the problem. Who the hell wants Jared Goff for $60mm?
So the answer is to restructure him. Max out the restructure and you save $40.2mm in cap space. That gets you where you need to be to operate. But it's horrendous, really. The Lions had 1.5 good years and they got themselves into this insane place where Jared Goff (Jared Goff!) has a $70mm cap hit and they have to push $40mm into his age 33-35 seasons to do the bare minimum with their roster. And guess what?! His cap hit in 2027 is $54.6mm as it stands and $61.6mm in 2028. They're meant to increase those hits by $15mm and then sign Brian Branch and Aidan Hutchinson? Who's gonna play at the other 18 spots?
You can say they're betting on the salary cap increasing between now and then, but that's not a cinch bet. The Packers did that pre-COVID, and now the Aaron Rodgers era Packers only won one Super Bowl. Do we really expect another huge jump in the cap the year after Taylor Swift loses interest in the NFL?
Vikings
Alright, the Vikings have $23.5mm in carry-overable space for 2025 and they are $61mm in the hole for 2026. Somehow, the worst yet!
Again no real blue-chip free agents, with Harrison Smith probably the only big name. So we have about $40mm in cap space to clear.
Cutting Brian O'Neill, Harrison Phillips and Aaron Jones saves $34mm. Still $5 or $6mm to go. The easy answer then is to restructure Justin Jefferson and get his number down from $39mm. They can max that out and save $18mm or go lower and keep some room for future years, when they'll have to pay a QB if they're lucky.
Each of the inferior teams has a clear enough pathway to opening up space. And I'm sure the cap will be higher than what Over the Cap is showing but the point is clear: you can't be good forever. All three of these teams are going to have some tough decisions next off-season. Lace up.
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Mike Price is a lifelong Packers fan who recently moved from Utah to Stoughton (a Madison suberb). You can follow him on twitter at @themikeprice.
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Comments (26)
Cheezehead72
June 27, 2025 at 10:11 am
Its nice to look ahead to next season and this is a good article but I am more concerned with this season. I do believe that the Lions and the Vikings are the teams to beat and the Bears will be better this season. The Packers can win the division but they are going to have to play better. Let's see how this year unfolds before we look at next year.
It is nice to know the other three teams have salary cap issues.
mnbadger
June 27, 2025 at 09:22 pm
Also, a summary of the Packers would have been helpful for comparison?
All fun though this time of year.
GPG!
Leatherhead
June 27, 2025 at 10:29 am
This is where we could use TGR, because he was always good at this.
The author used Over The Cap, and I'm going with Spotrac, and right off the bat there's some areas off disagreement. According to them, the Lions have almost $50M in 2025 cap space for their Top 51. That's 2nd best in the league. They don't have Ragnow on the books, other than his nearly $5M in dead cap.
Goff....jeezus. $70M? I had to check that, because it seemed so insane, and you know what? It's real. Goff got a huge chunk of guaranteed money when he signed with the Lions, spread out as a signing bonus, but his salary has been relatively small. It went from $2.5M last year,to $18M this year, and $55M next year. Unless this guy wins a Super Bowl MVP this year, you'd have to wonder if you wouldn't be better off looking in a different direction.
Even if you jettison Goff after this season (he's 31 now), you're looking at $64M in Dead Cap. Ouch, ouch ouch ouch. I think the Packers are in better shape at QB. Better than Detroit, better than Chicago, better than Minneapolis.
I think the Lions could be in for a much tougher season than they had last year, and I think it's really nice that the Packers get to start that rock rolling down the hill by stomping them in the opener.
Cheezehead72
June 27, 2025 at 10:48 am
Good comment. Yes right now the Packers are better at QB than Minn and Chicago. I am not sure about Detroit. But Minn is better at receivers. With their receivers how good does the QB need to be.
Leatherhead
June 27, 2025 at 11:06 am
Well, better than me, that's for sure.
I looked at passer rating, but QBR , IMO, is a better metric because it factors in what a QB does beyond just passing. That's why guys like Jackson and Allen and Daniels are at the top of the pile there. Goff still comes up at at #6 there, right behind Love.
In Adjusted Yards/Attempt , Goff was 2nd in the league, and Love was 5th.
So, whatever you think of Goff, he was one of the best QBs in the league last year. To the question of "how good does he have to be?" I used Jalen Hurts as a reference, and he's around #10 in the main measures. Patrick Mahomes,is in the teens in a number of measures.
By the time you get past #16 in QBR, it's guys like Drake Mae, Jameis Winston, Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Rodgers, Caleb Williams,....etc. So based strictly on that, I'd say it's not necessary to have the best QB in the league, but he needs to be in the top half at least, and in the Top 10 is better.
Do I think Goff has had the best season he ever had? Yes. He's over 30, he has a new OC, and his line isn't going to be as good as last year.
Do I think Love will be better than last year? Yes. He's in his physical prime, he has a consistent group around him, and his line should be better than last year.
BuckyBadger
June 27, 2025 at 02:28 pm
Love is a better QB than Goff and I am a pretty big critic of Love. At least he can throw the ball outside. I would put Love at the top but I wouldn't write it in stone. Williams has all the arm talent in the world, just has trouble throwing in tight windows like you do in the NFL. If Johnson can improve on him his stats last year on the surface weren't bad. Minnesota things they have a keeper in McCarthy but I am far from convinced but stranger things have happened.
LLCHESTY
June 27, 2025 at 03:45 pm
Goff has bad decision games(as does Love) but I don't think his arm is below average. He had some nice deep balls to Jameson Williams last year, including this 65 yarder. I doubt half the starting QBs could make that toss. I'd much rather have Love due to his age
https://x.com/AustinAbbottFF/status/1934393714816008433?t=_BOi8oBtU67sk2...
Bitternotsour
June 27, 2025 at 06:22 pm
Jared Goff is a really good qb. All it requires is watching him. He's been to the Super Bowl, he gets his teams into the playoffs. He's insanely accurate. Dare I say it, he's sort of Rodgers-like. He was the #1 player drafted.
Why people bad mouth him is beyond me. The Lions have sucky DNA, but they've had pretty great quarterbacking for the last 15 years or so.
LLCHESTY
June 28, 2025 at 11:30 pm
Lions definitely got the better end of the Stafford for Goff plus picks trade:
"The Lions turned those picks into the following players:
RB Jahmyr Gibbs (via trade with Cardinals)
TE Sam LaPorta (via trade with Cardinals)
DT Brodric Martin (via trade with Cardinals)
WR Jameson Williams (via trade with Vikings)
EDGE Josh Paschal (via trade with Vikings)
CB Ifeatu Melifonwu "
Two of those guys are top 10 at their positions, Williams was a 1000 yard and 5 of the 6 are still on the team.
dobber
June 28, 2025 at 09:13 am
Just like Cousins had his "Kark" games, Goff will "Goff it up" a couple times per year. Last year, they were able to overcome it.
13TimeChamps
June 28, 2025 at 09:49 am
Until the playoffs anyway. Last year he had 3 picks and a 59.7 QB rating in their one-and-done playoff loss.
Starrbrite
June 27, 2025 at 10:39 pm
I’m right with you LH—the Lions are looking at much tougher sledding this year.
WestCoastPackerBacker
June 27, 2025 at 11:40 am
How about comparing the Packers to the rest of the division? Are they in better or worse shape?
dobber
June 28, 2025 at 09:05 am
The Packers are 6th in available cap space in 2025 at about $35M (top 51).
They're currently $30M under in 2026 over all commitments which is about 14th.
Bearmeat
June 27, 2025 at 05:01 pm
The Lions missed their window. The Vikings are depending on McCarthy to be great, and the Bears are… the Bears.
Green Bay, once again, shows it is the best run franchise in the NFCN.
mnbadger
June 27, 2025 at 09:27 pm
Possibly the entire NFL.
IMO,it's because of the public ownership vs an meglomanic billionaire.
GPG!
the_gavia_pass
June 28, 2025 at 01:46 am
we are no way close to what you define "meglomanic" Jeffrey Laurie. I would give up all the GB board of directors and the president for an owner like Laurie. A great mind not only in football operations but also in what he is doing for the communitiy.
Bitternotsour
June 28, 2025 at 08:28 am
in the process of giving up the green bay board would you also commit to learning the name of the Eagles owner? If you wish to troll, at least get the characters straight.
joejetson
June 27, 2025 at 09:20 pm
After the Bears tanked a couple years ago, they were sitting there with the #1 pick and a mountain of available cash. So they went on a spending orgy on unimpressive free agents, and then drafted the wrong quarterback (again).
So they are now in position to start yet another rebuild.
The Lions are now stuck with Goff as his age starts to catch up to him. And it will if his new offensive line doesn't give him the protection he's had the last two years. Winning results in the need to pay more good players. We'll start seeing if Detroit can maintain success.
Minnesota is putting all their eggs in the Mccarthy basket. With their cap situation, Mccarthy MUST perform well, because they can't afford to pay premium $ for a different QB. If he flops, what are they going to do? Bring back Kirk Cousins and pay him another $50 million that they don't have?
Should be some interesting developments in the NFC North in '25 and '26.
I like GB's situation better than the rest of the Division.
mnbadger
June 27, 2025 at 09:28 pm
Me too.
Plus, always have and always will!
GPG!
LLCHESTY
June 28, 2025 at 11:50 pm
The Bears were dumb to "tank" the wrong year, Carolina was dumber to help them out of that predicament.
the_gavia_pass
June 28, 2025 at 02:02 am
kevin o'connell decided not to try to get aaron rodgers, he trusts mccarty, and o'connell proved how good he is at developing the qb position. vikings have a lot of talent, true stars like jefferson. probably not a contender because mccarthy he is a rookie.
detroit has lost a lot of coaches but this speaks volumes about how good are campbell and the gm in finding talent everywhere. they also have true stars, a dpoy candidate like hutchinson. they'll be good again,
the bears have upgraded the hc position with a great offensive mind. caleb williams is a question mark. I do not like him, to he has not a great mind, he speaks too much. may be this coach will get the best from williams, may be he'll prove me I'm wrong. anyway chicago has good talent on the roster, and beat us last year. they improved we have gotten worse.
we need to consider all of 3 have great WR/TE rooms with true stars like jefferson jameson williams, laporta and we got worse in the secondary. they also have good o-line, the best in detroit, a very good one in minnesota and on the rise in chicago. and we got worse in the D-line and we have mediocre rushers.
QB
detroit has a solid one, he made a SB, he's not great but very good,
minnesota has a question mark, but a great leader. and also with a great developer like o'connell
chicago has a good talent, small mind QB and a great offensive mind behind him
we have a bust
Leatherhead
June 28, 2025 at 08:29 am
I like it when you post because it tells me what the answer isn't.
the_gavia_pass
June 28, 2025 at 12:34 pm
I still remember you guys dream of damarius randall, rashan gary, luke van ness and many many others.
time proved 90% of GB fans are dreamer on nothing.
I'm realist.
i started doubting mark murphy in 2015 when 90% GB fans called me troll.
now numbers are on my side, more and more fans are on my side, even murphy admitted he failed.
LLCHESTY
June 28, 2025 at 11:59 pm
"time proved 90% of GB fans are dreamer on nothing.
I'm realist."
You hypothetically should think about taking a English as a second language class.
dobber
June 28, 2025 at 08:57 am
Some cautionary tales...
...the Lions are showing what happens when a really young team starts paying its young guys, parsing out contracts, and has to figure out the "down the road" part. The Packers need to be paying attention. They already seem to be taking a different track: they seem to be more interested in drafting ahead and churning youth.
...the Vikings are subscribing to the Mike Sherman plan for roster management: devaluing and trading away draft picks, burning cap on aging incumbents and street vets. The front-line players might be mostly good, but there's precious little depth and they're wrangling cap every year. McCarthy = Christian Ponder 2.0.
...the Bears: suck. They're still dealing with the aftermath of Ryan Pace's annual moves to stir up the fan base (and ownership) and dodge getting fired. Poles at least has been smart enough to try to build the lines, but we'll see if he's had any better discernment in who he's invested in...so far, not so much.