Accepting the Packers' Trade-Down Possibilities
There's always the chance of a trade-down in the first round
By GregMeinholz
It's the first night of the NFL Draft. The first round, which is always the most anticipated, is underway, and you can't wait for your team to pick. You're picking in the mid-20s, so you're going to be waiting a few hours for your team's turn on the clock. But that's okay. You'll be keeping close tabs on all the other picks so you know who your team will have a shot at when their time comes. Your team is one pick away, here it comes. The team before just made their selection and there is your favorite team logo all over the backdrop with the words "one the clock." It's finally here, who will they take? Your brain cycles through the possibilities, you make your guess, and suddenly you hear...
"There's been a trade."
Oh no, what happened, there's the trade terms, your team just traded down, and not just a few spots, but out of the first round entirely. You now have to wait until tomorrow to see what your team does with their first pick.
Since the NFL Draft moved to the three-day format we see today back in 2010, this has only happened to Packers fans once. That was in 2017 when they traded down from pick 29 with the Cleveland Browns to pick 33 in the second round. Of course, this is also notoriously the draft where the Packers essentially passed on a chance at drafting TJ Watt to instead draft Kevin King three picks after Watt was taken. Like we haven't heard about that move enough in the last eight years. Of course, this example of trading out of the first round is rough, but it hasn't always been terrible for the Packers. In 2008, before the three-day format, the Packers traded out of the first round from pick 30 with the New York Jets for pick 36 where they drafted Jordy Nelson. You may have heard of him, he's only among the ranks of the best Packers receivers of all time. Possibly one of the best parts of that move was that two other receivers were drafted between pick 30 and pick 36, but neither of them had the career Jordy Nelson had.
So, this year, with the draft in Green Bay, are the stakes a little higher for the Packers to trade down? Imagine, after years of trying to score the NFL draft in Green Bay, it's finally here. Throngs of Packer fans fill the area, and "Go Pack Go" chants erupt as they're on the clock, but then, they trade down. Out of the first round. No excitement for the newest Packer in Green Bay until tomorrow. President/CEO Mark Murphy has told everyone that he won't be upset and there's no pressure on GM Brian Gutekunst to not do it. "If the move is what's best for the team, do it." But Mark Murphy doesn't exactly speak for the fans. There could be a little bit of bedlam in Green Bay if this were to happen.
But you know what? It'll all be okay.
Trading Down Can Be Worth the Wait
Next Thursday night, many Packer fans will have their ideal first-round pick. For every fan, that pick will likely not be the same player. Though the sexy pick of a wide receiver in the first round is on the "want" board once again for the Packers, four other positions have been commonly explored. The cornerback position may be a big need if the Packers indeed do move on from Jaire Alexander. The pass rush was rather unexciting last year, so perhaps the Packers upgrade in that area. Interior defensive linemen could be intriguing, and with many offensive linemen approaching contract years, it wouldn't be a big shock to see a first-rounder in that area a second year straight.
So, that means, there's likely a multitude of options the Packers have on their board for number 23. If even a handful of those players are still available when the Packers are on the clock, it could be expected for Brian Gutekunst to be letting the clock tick down as far as possible as he waits on phone calls. Gute, like his predecessor Ted Thompson, loves his picks and can't get enough. No matter what you think, the draft is a toss-up. You might think a player is a "can't-miss" prospect, but as soon as they get on the field, that could all change. So, valuing a higher volume of picks is valuing more chances at a hit. If Gute is offered pick 33, a third, and a seventh for pick 23, he's taking it.
Just because a player has a second round label doesn't make them any better than if they had that first round label. Especially if they tumbled from a first-round grade, out of the first round.
Several names would be surprising to see in the second round, but there are a few rumors of it being possible. Those that fit the Packers' needs would be CB Will Johnson, EDGE's Abdul Carter, and James Pearce Jr., CB/WR Travis Hunter, and WR Emeka Egbuka. If the Packers were to grab a talent like Will Johnson, Travis Hunter, or Emeka Egbuka in the second round while gaining 1-2 extra picks, one would be a fool to be upset about it. But even if it were a player projected to go in the late 20s who only fell a few picks, the Packers would look pretty good making that move. More picks, more chances at hits.
So, don't be surprised to see a trade-down on the first night of the draft by your Green Bay Packers. They may have a plethora of players they see as first-round talent still available and are looking to get that additional hit in the middle rounds.
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Greg Meinholz is a lifelong devoted Packer fan. A contributor to CheeseheadTV as well as PackersTalk. Follow him on Twitter @gmeinholz and Bluesky @gmeinholz.bsky.social for Packers commentary, random humor, beer endorsements, and occasional Star Wars and Marvel ramblings.
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Comments (24)
Tater
April 15, 2025 at 10:30 am
I don’t understand why people think Mark Murphy would be upset if we traded out of the 1st round. If you want maximum attendance for the draft weekend, I think you would want to trade out of the 1st round. The 1st day’s attendance is already set before the Packers pick is up. If you trade into the 2nd round, we will have 4 selections on the 2nd day instead of 2. You would have to think more people would show up for the 2nd day of the draft if we had 4 selections instead of 2.
LLCHESTY
April 15, 2025 at 01:31 pm
I'd much rather go to the 2nd day of the draft than the 1st. Less people and I have more fun looking for players I think have a chance to turn into impact players. Anyone can crush on 1st round picks.
murf7777
April 16, 2025 at 09:51 am
While that may be true, I don’t see the packers upsetting their fan base and trading out of the 1st round.
Coldworld
April 16, 2025 at 10:37 am
It would not upset me potentially and the fan base isn’t in the room largely. Indeed, draft attendees in the past are from all bet the league.
I want the best draft, not spectacle and I think most fans probably agree. That’s not necessarily how it will go, but in this draft it might be the value move, and I for one will not feel upset if that proves to be the case or think any less of the draft event.
As to success of the event. That’s more about how it’s run and the feedback from teams, media, and visiting fans primarily. They likely won’t decide that based upon who and when the Packers pick.
13TimeChamps
April 15, 2025 at 10:44 am
"If the Packers were to grab a talent like Will Johnson, Travis Hunter, or Emeka Egbuka in the second round while gaining 1-2 extra picks, one would be a fool to be upset about it."
Ummmmmm.............I'm no draftnick, but I'm pretty sure Travis Hunter isn't falling to the 2nd round.
T7Steve
April 15, 2025 at 11:05 am
You beat me to it.
I was going to quote him with, "CB/WR Travis Hunter" ???? Not a very good example unless he was just trying to get us excited. Can't believe he would drop out of the top 5, never below 10.
GregC
April 15, 2025 at 11:29 am
Saying that Abdul Carter could drop out of the first round is almost as ridiculous as saying that Travis Hunter could drop out of the first round. I've seen maybe one rogue mock draft that had Carter dropping to the 6-10 range in the first round.
murf7777
April 16, 2025 at 09:52 am
I’d bet my house he won’t fall to 23.
Cheezehead72
April 15, 2025 at 10:49 am
Pick at 23, trad up, trade down I do not care just do the right thing.
Turophile
April 16, 2025 at 01:16 am
Ah, if only we had those 20/20 rear view mirror glasses, we would know what the right thing is, on the day.
On draft day there is no right thing,. Its a roll of the dice and dependent on how Gute's board is stacked and who falls..........and whether there is a trade partner for a worthwhile (in Gute's eyes) shift of draft position. Too many moving parts to know what's right on the day.......and since he has only one (first round) choice and his decision will have that player matched against EVERY other player drafted in that area, the chances he gets the perfect pick are small.
Gute will make his best educated guess, but that is all he can do.
splitpea1
April 15, 2025 at 11:34 am
LOL, wouldn't it be nice if Abdul Carter fell to us...
The important thing here, no matter what, is that we're trying to find more polished players that can make an impact in shorter time. Quality over quantity; right now we have a lot of average to good players, but few true difference-makers.
Just look at the prospects the Rams have selected in the past two years who have shined in their rookie seasons--and on their way to getting even better. So whatever the Rams are doing, maybe it would be good idea to copy the process or model,
Alberta_Packer
April 15, 2025 at 11:48 am
Over the last 3 drafts the Packers have averaged over 11 picks. This year they have 8. Gutekunst has publicly stated that he wants more - which almost certainly will happen. If so - trading-down into the lower first or early 2nd - is the best way to acquire additional premium draft capital. Still a trade down for the Packers may be predicated on:
A. There is no upper tier Rd. 1 player that falls to the Packers @ 23 - e.g. Tet McMillan or Will Johnson.
B. The Packers prime target - on their draft board - is available @ 23.
That being so - I estimate the probabilities of the following happening on Day 1:
A. Packers stay @ 23 - 50%
B. Packers trade down - 40%
C. Packers trade up - 10%
gsd3
April 16, 2025 at 05:28 am
He didn't come out and say they would get more. It was an ambiguous answer. Could be less if he is inclined to move up.
My guess is more. Takes a willing party though. Not a given.
Leatherhead
April 15, 2025 at 12:38 pm
Wasn't there an article here not too long ago which made the point that the Packers rarely trade down in the first round?
This is going to be Gutekunsts' 8th? draft. He traded down once, the year we got Alexander. He traded up for both Love and Savage
Coldworld
April 16, 2025 at 10:45 am
Each draft is different. He’s shown that he is open to trading down. The sample suggests he most often stands pat. That’s probably the most likely outcome this year, but this class and a relative lack of picks may increase the odds of trading back a little more than in recent drafts.
HarryHodag
April 15, 2025 at 01:29 pm
Draft history will mean little this year. As Greg pointed out, the difference between picks 23(first round) and 33(second round) this year in terms of talent is very small.
This is a classic 'more is better' draft.
The top talent will be gone by pick 12. From there there's a whole bunch of talent that falls roughly even with each other through pick 64. Should there be a trading partner, moving back with an extra pick or two in rounds 2-3 makes a lot of sense. More picks from the 'very good but not exceptional' pool would enhance the chances of the Packers striking green and gold. The team's next potential superstar, Edgerrin Cooper, was a second round pick last year.
Don't believe the media's hype about first round picks. There's lots of good players available outside of round 1.
LLCHESTY
April 15, 2025 at 01:39 pm
I did this one assuming Mykel Williams does the agilities on Thursday and goes under a sub 7 second 3-cone. Unlike Shemar Stewart Williams was productive as a true Freshman on a National Championship team with 6 sacks and over a 10% pass rush win rate. Not too shabby for an 18 year old playing in the SEC. Turns 21 in June.
Missed Jalen Royals at 54 and really didn't like the way the OL prospects fell but otherwise I like this one.
24.
Mykel Williams
EDGE Georgia
68.
Jack Bech
WR TCU
87.
T.J. Sanders
DT South Carolina
97.
Jordan Hancock
CB Ohio State
108.
Deone Walker
DT Kentucky
124.
Tai Felton
WR Maryland
179.
Jalin Conyers
TE Texas Tech
216.
Caleb Rogers
OT Texas Tech
237.
Dalton Cooper
OT Oklahoma State
255.
Warren Brinson
DT Georgia
2026 LV 7th
stockholder
April 15, 2025 at 05:02 pm
Deone Walker is a Nt -
He just keeps dropping .
Even in your drafts.
But there is hope for him.
The demand for DTs is so high this year.
He'll still go by the end of rd. 2
gsd3
April 16, 2025 at 05:33 am
Not a fan of Walker at all. Would not be disappointed with the rest. Big fan of Williams and Sanders.
stockholder
April 15, 2025 at 02:12 pm
Truthfully - I Wouldn't trade down for a 1 - 3 and 7th.
Gute's bust rate in rd. 3 is too high.
And this year; rd 3 must fit your needs.
With that in mind - The trade chart shows-
Going from #23 - 760 pts - ( # 33- 580 to #43- 500pts.)
Thats a Difference of 180 - 260.
Would you want your Top player outside the top 50?
A extra Rd 3 starts @ 65 266pts - # 74 220pts.
To make this work. He must fit your Needs.
You will only get a project. No starter but depth.
Could Gute get two hopefuls in a weak draft?
I hate the odds he could. Based on past performance.
Rd 7 # 193 - 14 pts -down to #159 is a Zero.
Longshots
Packer_Fan
April 15, 2025 at 03:40 pm
I am in favor of trading down to get one or two picks before the fifth round. The 23rd pick is a 50-50 chance of success per other articles. I rather have Gute pick more since he has been fairly successful in the last few years.
brenner
April 15, 2025 at 07:46 pm
"They may have a plethora of players they see as first-round talent still available and are looking to get that additional hit in the middle rounds."
Or... there might not be any with 1st rd grades left.
Personally, I'd like to see them trade down to early 2nd, pick up and extra pick and maybe another 2 next year, the double down on trading 1s and get another early 2 with next year's 1. I think that most of the value in this draft is going to be from day 2 picks.
PhantomII
April 15, 2025 at 09:42 pm
We scored 10 points in the playoffs....WR1 is BY FAR OUR BIGGEST NEED. Then it's #2 WR. Then it's DL. I would move Willis if I could for an xtra #2 pick. There are 4 WR's expected to be taken in RD1. Gute should move UP and get a top 2- 3 WR in this draft and I expect ALL 4 to be much better than what we have now...day 1....
gsd3
April 16, 2025 at 05:48 am
There is not a WR I would take in the 1st outside of Golden or Higgins and that's only if Grant, Williams, Harmon, Donovan E, are gone. Would trade up in the 2nd if either are there. Possibly Egbuka. Would be happy with Royals, Kyle Williams, Harris or Bech at 54 or 87. Horton as well. All Would upgrade the room.