5 Things to Watch in Packers vs Lions: Run. The. Ball.

Running the ball effectively and stopping the Lions' two headed backfield will be key for the Packers this Sunday.

How healthy is Jordan Love?

All signs are pointing to Love overcoming a groin injury to lead the Packers against the Lions on Sunday, but just because he plays, it does not mean he is 100 percent healthy.

If they are to win, Green Bay needs Love not just to get through the game, but produce a strong performance. It remains unknown how healed up the groin is, but Love was not able to practice in full at any time this week.

After sustaining the injury versus the Jaguars, Love fought on for as long as he could, but was clearly compromised, with the quarterback admitting this week that his mobility was significantly hampered.

The Packers essentially abandoned any under center plays as long as Love stayed in the game, and this contributed to the offense stagnating until Malik Willis took over.

Having to run most plays out of shotgun negatively impacted Green Bay’s ability to run the ball and also set up play action, a crucial part of Matt LaFleur’s system.

Love being healthy enough to play is one thing, but if the offense is unable to open up the playbook and run whatever they want, it could severely hold them back in a game which might have to be a shootout for the Packers to win it.

Run. The. Ball.

It feels like the run game could decide this matchup one way or the other, and the Packers should place a premium on being able to run the ball effectively on offense, and slow down the Lions’ backs on defense.

For all the trick plays and creative play calling Ben Johnson brings to the table for Detroit, their offensive success is underpinned by a relentless ability to run the ball.

This success on the ground is a product of a dominating offensive line, headlined by Penei Sewell, Kevin Zeitler and Frank Ragnow on the right side, and a pair of running backs offering a ‘thunder and lightning’ approach in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

If the Packers cannot prevent the Lions from trampling all over them with the run game, they are probably not going to be able to stop anything Detroit does through the air either.

When Green Bay has the ball, it is vital they are able to run the ball consistently to take the pressure off a hobbled Love and keep the ball out of the Lions’ hands for as long as possible. Winning the time of possession battle would be huge for the Packers this week.

Josh Jacobs has stepped up and put the team on his back when required this season, helping the offense to keep putting up points when the backup quarterback has been in, and enjoyed his best game as a Packer last week in Jacksonville.

He enters the game with a ‘questionable’ designation, but earlier in the week told reporters he should be “good to go” on Sunday. Jacobs will need to pick up where he left off if Green Bay is to come out on top.

Jeff Hafley vs Ben Johnson

The Hafley era is off to a promising start through eight games, as his unit ranks 12th in DVOA so far, but he will face by far his toughest test yet on Sunday, coming up against Johnson and his excellent Lions offense.

Philadelphia’s offense is the best Green Bay has played against so far, ranking 11th in DVOA, and they put up 34 points in what was admittedly an unusual situation to be coaching one’s first game as an NFL coordinator.

However the 16th ranked Vikings, the only other team in the top half of the league the Packers have faced, also scored over 30.

The Lions will be without Jameson Williams, who is suspended, and their pass catchers outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are pretty pedestrian, but those two alone are more than enough for Johnson and quarterback Jared Goff to do damage with.

Green Bay has their own problems in the defensive backfield in terms of availability. Between Evan Williams already being declared out for the game and Jaire Alexander questionable with a knee issue, the Packers could be down two of their best defensive backs.

Expect Javon Bullard to move back to safety after primarily manning the slot in recent weeks, and Keisean Nixon to take his place inside. Even if Alexander is able to go, one of Eric Stokes or Carrington Valentine is in line for a sizable increase in snaps.

Will Hafley continue to boost his rapidly improving reputation on Sunday? Or will the honeymoon come to a grinding halt?

Rashan Gary

After a well-documented slow start to the season, Gary looks like he may be rounding into form at the right time.

He may still only have two sacks on the year, but creative usage by Hafley has helped free Gary up to cause more disruption in recent games. Gary has 12 quarterback pressures in the last three weeks, double the amount he produced in the first five games.

Gary enjoyed his most productive game of the season in Detroit on thanksgiving last year, sacking Goff three times, and Green Bay will need him to show up on Sunday.

Hafley has done a sterling job of manufacturing pressure when his front four failed to do it by themselves, but against an elite offensive play caller like Johnson, it will not be as easy to get the job done with smoke and mirrors.

This is the first game the Lions have played outdoors all season (curious, NFL), and he tends to struggle in the elements compared to in a dome.

Goff showed against the Vikings he can dice up a defense which blitzes heavily, going 13 for 15 last week. Getting pressure with four will be key if the Packers have any chance at forcing him to unravel.

Brian Branch

Whether it is the cornerbacks or linebackers, the Lions do not excel in pass coverage, but what they do have is two erasers on the back end in Kerby Joseph and more prominently, Brian Branch.

Branch was excellent as a rookie and has only gotten better in his second year, he already has four interceptions this season and is currently ranked as PFFs best safety.

The Packers traded the Lions the 45th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, which they used to select the safety from Alabama, and that fact had the chance to be something that haunted Green Bay for years to come.

Fortunately, Brian Gutekunst eventually turned that pick (via another trade with the Buccaneers) into Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Karl Brooks.

That said, Jordan Love will need to be aware of where Branch is at all times and be mindful when throwing the ball over the middle of the field. The Packers cannot afford turnovers this week.

 

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Mark Oldacres is a sports writer from Birmingham, England and a Green Bay Packers fan. You can follow him on twitter at @MarkOldacres

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Comments (30)

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Susieq's picture

November 02, 2024 at 02:26 pm

Watch Jordan and if you have a view, watch "Gutey".

Over at today’s Aaron Nagler daily show:

“Jordan Love expected to start vs Lions”

per Tom Pelissero’s “sources”.

Was there ever a doubt this would be the case?

Not here.

Gutekunst has too much invested – from a PERSONAL PROFESSIONAL REPUTATION perspective – and will PERSONALLLY drag Jordan onto the field to start and play for the reasons outlined down below

But now there is another ready made excuse for more Jordan bone headed interceptions and inaccuracy and another EXCUSE for Jordan to bail out Sunday against the Lions when things get rough just like last week when Jordan BAILED against the lowly Jaguars, having allowed the most touchdown passes in the NFL and intercepted just 1 pass the entire season, last in the NFL.

Jordan Love - out with “strains” and “sprains” - clearly has a lower pain threshold than Favre or Rodgers.

From Draft Sharks:

Sep 6, 2024 NFL Knee MCL Sprain Grade 2 Love sprained his MCL on the final drive of Week 1 on Friday Night in Brazil against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Favre and Rodgers played through all types of sprains and strains, including broken bones and broken thumbs.
Remember Rodgers Knee MCL Sprain?

From Draft Sharks:

Sep 9, 2018 NFL Knee MCL Sprain Grade 2 Rodgers was carted off but later returned vs. Chicago. He dealt with a sprain and a bone bruise for most of the season.

Rodgers was carted off the field in first half with Packers down to Bears 20 to 0. Rodgers returned for the 2nd half and brought the Packers back from the 20 to 0 deficit to win the game. Rodgers played through the season with the MCL sprain and bone bruise not missing a game until December 30, 2018 concussion.

In addition, where Favre and Rodgers would scramble and run and take sacks without fear, Jordan is afraid of getting touched and avoids sacks like the plague, preferring to heave the ball off his back foot or across his body in the opposite direction of where Jordan is running, where the most probable result of Jordan's pass is an interception.

And I don't blame Jordan or any of these modern day gladiators and higher than average paid wage slaves - average career less than 3 years - for not playing with pain, but certainly the hoarding, greed driven, profit seeking, profit maximizing blood sucking 31 owners want their "stars" out there to maximize the entertainment dollars that they suck in.

And in Green Bay's case, you have the added factor of Jordan Love being the player that Gutekunst (in football management only due to his father/s connections/nepotism) - the immature, impulsive, imprudent, insensitive, petulant immature impulsive impatient child seeking to create a maverick image - chose - taking a major contrarian risk in choosing all of college football's - both FBS and FCS - leader in throwing interceptions over much more needed positions - including wide receiver - to put a Green Bay team that was on the edge of winning Super Bowls over the edge.

7 Years now of Gutekunst (probably more than 7 as Ted was incapacitate in his last couple years) and the Packers have won no NFC Championships or Super Bowls because of Gutekunst's disrespect for - and fear of - Packer Hall of Famers and future NFL Hall of Famers and those veteran players that were friends of these Packer icons.

So Gutekunst tore apart the Packer team on the brink of Super Bowls and tore apart team veteran leadership and chemistry.

Consequently, given Gutekunst's illogical risk taking and personal ego driven moves, Gutekunst must win Super Bowls with Love at the QB position - no one else - to salvage Gutekunst's reputation as an NFL executive, retain his job as Packers' Gm, and find any NFL executive positions in the future.

If Jordan plays against the Lions on Sunday it will be because Gutekunst pushed the doctors to ok Jordan playing and pushed Lafleur to play Jordan and told Jordan “Hey I just paid you a guaranteed NFL record $75 million signing bonus – YOU ARE MAKING ME LOOK LIKE AN IDIOT!!”.

The Lions are beatable with the right quarterback at the helm for the Packers. This Packer team is a 14-3 or a 13-4 team with a MVP quarterback that carries the team and a 9-8 or 10-7 team if the team has to carry the QB.

Poor Lafleur – he certainly sees the reality. Hopefully the Packers runners, receivers, defense and special teams and Lafleur can carry Gutekunst and Jordan again to victory as they have been doing each week.

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jlc1's picture

November 02, 2024 at 03:45 pm

Huh?

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GregC's picture

November 02, 2024 at 04:18 pm

Started to skim it, then gave up.

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calabasa's picture

November 02, 2024 at 04:33 pm

That tin foil hat is on a little tight…

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LLCHESTY's picture

November 02, 2024 at 06:04 pm

Looks like Stockholder added a 2nd account.

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stockholder's picture

November 03, 2024 at 08:15 am

No - Your wrong again!

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Wisma Packer's picture

November 03, 2024 at 10:15 am

Nawww!

Stockholder is not this bad!

Also, Stockholder does not write paragraphs. His rants are like bad poetry - disjointed individual lines that do not rhyme. 😁

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dblbogey's picture

November 03, 2024 at 12:52 am

The new troll sure uses a lot of words that nobody will read.

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stockholder's picture

November 03, 2024 at 08:23 am

Gute only cares about himself.
Susieq message is clear- Crystal clear.

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Wisma Packer's picture

November 03, 2024 at 10:19 am

"Susieq message is clear- Crystal clear."

If you say so stockholder.

I myself could not finish reading her/his "message", so I cannot verify the veracity of your claim. However, I must say this: Susieq gave some good laughs 🤣.
Sometimes the sheer absurdity of the comments make it good 🤣🤣.

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NickPerry's picture

November 03, 2024 at 06:06 am

What?

Seriously, WTF?

Okay, NO MORE coffee for you!

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stockholder's picture

November 03, 2024 at 08:11 am

Thank You for an honest opinion!

But we will never win a super-bowl with Gute.
Everything he does is for his glory.

The top priority is Jordan Love.
And it is on MLF to make sure it stays that way.

The sad part is paying big bucks for mediocrity.
Remember that "can" that went down the road?
IT Still has a echo, as long as Gute is GM.

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Rory P Scrotem's picture

November 03, 2024 at 10:54 am

IN THE ILLUSTRIOUS WORDS OF MANY AN EDITOR, "BOIL IT SUSIEQ!"
YOU LOST ME @ FOUR SCORE AND SEVEN TOUCHDOWNS AGO...

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Bitternotsour's picture

November 03, 2024 at 01:04 pm

this is what happens when you train ChatGPT with the Stockholder archive and ask it to produce in paragraph form.

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stockholder's picture

November 03, 2024 at 01:53 pm

Just a matter of timing.

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splitpea1's picture

November 02, 2024 at 03:31 pm

A good performance from our DL will go a long way towards winning this game. We need to do a reasonably good job holding firm against the run and getting interior pressure on Goff. I don't always subscribe to " the game is won in the trenches" philosophy, but I'm all in this time.

What do we have to lose by giving Valentine those extra snaps over Stokes? The latter has been in there for 61% of the defensive snaps this season and doesn't have much to show for it.

Still waiting for that "clean" game from Love--now would be a good time for it as the Lions don't need extra possessions. Branch and Joseph have 9 INTs between them, so watch it.

I hope MLF sticks with the run if it proves effective. No need to get away from something that works just for the sake of variety.

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jlc1's picture

November 02, 2024 at 03:48 pm

It is true the Pack needs to run the ball. More importantly they need to stop the run, as the article pretty much says without making it a headline. This remains a weak spot for this team so it is hard to see how they will be effective, or effective enough, against the Lions.

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Savage57's picture

November 03, 2024 at 04:49 am

Holy $#!t.

I just tried reading the screed that was disguised as a "comment".

Reminds me of the SNL skit about the girl you regret talking to at a party.

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4thand10's picture

November 03, 2024 at 03:18 pm

LOL @ Savage57

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tobinrote's picture

November 03, 2024 at 06:13 am

Has Love shown at all that less than healthy he is a better option than Willis? True, Willis has not been asked to do too much, but all he has done is deliver what he has been asked to do. A less than healthy Love has not yet been shown to be a better option than Willis. There is some truth in the screed that is the first comment. We all want the Love of the Dallas playoff game last year to show up again, but he has yet to do so except for a play here and play there.

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Bearmeat's picture

November 03, 2024 at 07:40 am

He is in his 2nd year starting. Look at Rodgers 2nd year in 2009. Was he perfect? Nope. What about Favre in 93? Nope again.

Patience, young Padawan.

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Bearmeat's picture

November 03, 2024 at 07:42 am

I’m going FULL MEATBALL. GO PACK GO. WIN!

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Boneman's picture

November 03, 2024 at 07:50 am

I have to disagree with this take. I really believe, and many metrics agree, that the weakness to attack is Detroit's pass defense. If Love plays expect him to throw early and often because I think it's crucial to get the lead. That may be the only way to slow down the Detroit running game. To try and go blow for blow with this power running team would be a mistake and playing into the hands of the Lions. We've seen the creativity from LeFleur in the run game, this game will unveil the creativity in the passing game. With a lead the strengths of this team will be in full effect on both offense and defense. We saw the blue print last year on Thanksgiving. I expect that Watson has his breakout game here. GPG!

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Bitternotsour's picture

November 03, 2024 at 01:05 pm

generate big plays, prevent big plays. win...

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stockholder's picture

November 03, 2024 at 08:39 am

Watch Branch- Gute gave up a All-pro.
It wasn't the draft picks he got.
It's the "time - line" of his drafting.
The defensive Position is always; a year or two TOO Late.

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Bearmeat's picture

November 03, 2024 at 09:07 am

Man. It’d be miserable to live with you. Are you ever happy? Are you even a fan?

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jlc1's picture

November 03, 2024 at 10:18 am

You know who does have to live with S**er? S**er does. So there's that.

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jannes bjornson's picture

November 03, 2024 at 09:40 am

He gave the 5th to his guy, Savage instead. The why of Musgrave in Rd two is still perplexing. He was lucky Mckinney was available. Then the triple down on the safety position. An overpaid D line without much production. The Bears hit on Dexter. Cannot argue with the Reed selection. He's a star if they don't get him injured by exposing him on the running plays. I would say he's two drafts behind.

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stockholder's picture

November 03, 2024 at 10:55 am

Reed= they could have got later.
Like the Lions got St Brown.
He needed a Punt returner.
(Like that wasn't two yrs late.)
And Reed fit the slot.
(After Amari Rodgers)

Always take the Defensive guy 1st.
Especially if he is on the top on the board.
He needed Branch even before Reed.
Especially after the safeties in 2024 draft.

And the fact he got the other picks made up
for the possibility of Reed being a bust.

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jannes bjornson's picture

November 03, 2024 at 03:11 pm

Reed is not a bust, You wanted Rashee Rice, who is out for the year and the car chase scenarios. St.Brown was four drafts ago andI was screaming for him rd two and dump his brother. Fell to the fourth round. I wanted Kirby Joseph. He makes it go for Dee-troit.

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